Dissidents by chance: The Kremlin has turned to labeling random people in Russia as traitors and terrorists

Shadiyev said he was unaware that the organizations were banned and believed his money would go to charitable causes. Even setting that aside, a donation of about 1,200 rubles cannot pose a threat to the security of a nuclear power and should not be punished with sentences typically reserved for Islamic State militants.

Cases based not on actions, but on the mere allegation of intent, make up about a quarter of all such prosecutions. Additionally, approximately every seventh treason case is opened over the accused’s alleged intent to join Ukrainian armed formations. Evidence typically consists not of concrete preparatory steps, such as buying equipment or tickets to Ukraine, but of correspondence with feedback bots operated by Ukrainian organizations.

Every tenth case involves alleged cooperation with foreign intelligence services. These cases are also usually based solely on messages, without proof of actual cooperation or harm to national security. Often the correspondence is not with Ukrainian forces but with an FSB officer, as entrapment has become routine.

Sentences are also becoming harsher. In 2024, the median sentence in “spy” cases was 12 years, but in 2025 that figure rose to 15 years. In addition, in 2025 courts issued two life sentences for treason — before that, the longest prison term ever imposed under such statutes was 27 years.

The most alarming trend, however, involves the widening pool of people targeted under treason and espionage laws. The largest group of defendants consists of Russian citizens with no ties to the military, politics, or public administration. Many are IT specialists, businesspeople, teachers, or rank-and-file employees. They have no access to state secrets and no authority or resources that could pose a threat to national security. The overwhelming majority had never engaged in political or civic activity. Yet the most severe criminal charges are now routinely applied against them.

Terrorists by appointment

According to another study by Pervy Otdel and Parubets Analytics, a similar surge has been seen in terrorism cases. Over the past five years, the number of convictions under terrorism statutes has tripled: from 310 people convicted in 2020 to 1,026 in 2024. Data for the past year are incomplete, but based on available figures — 659 convictions in the first half of the year — the final total is expected to reach 1,300. The trend began before the war but was sharply accelerated by the new domestic Russian reality.

The largest share of terrorism cases — just over 40% — fall under the article covering “public calls for terrorist activity, public justification or propaganda of terrorism.” As might be expected, the provision encompasses an extremely broad range of statements. In practice, law enforcement can treat any remarks about a terrorist attack made in the presence of more than two people as constituting a “justification.”

Waves of such cases follow every major attack — a practice that long predates the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Beyond intimidating the public, security agencies use these prosecutions to save face: when they fail to catch actual perpetrators or prevent attacks, cases for “justification” allow them to simulate the defense of state security.

After 2022, use of the “justification” article expanded further as cases involving attacks themselves became more frequent. From 2020 to 2022, the annual number of defendants in such cases did not exceed 40. In 2023, there were 121 cases; in 2024, 205. Full data for 2025 are not yet available, but based on the 147 defendants recorded in the first half of the year, about 300 cases are expected.

One reason for the growth is that authorities classify acts such as attempting to set fire to military enlistment offices and railway signaling equipment — common in the first two years of the war — as terrorist attacks. Another factor is Ukrainian operations that Russia also labels terrorism.