Moscow’s territorial gains falter as world marks fourth anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine

The Russian military has captured the smallest amount of Ukrainian territory in the past week than it has in any weeklong period for almost a year, Russian independent media outlet Agentstvo reported on Tuesday.

Citing data from the Ukrainian open-source intelligence project DeepState, Agenstvo said that between 16–22 February, Russian forces had captured just 21 square kilometres of Ukrainian territory, the lowest weekly total since March 2025.

Agentstvo also observed that Russian territorial gains had been on a downward trajectory since the start of the month, going from 90km² at the end of January, to 53km² in the first week of February, then to 28km² the following week, and finally to 21km², marking the lowest weekly territorial gain since 3-9 March 2025, when Russian forces captured just 14km² of Ukrainian territory.

By contrast, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksandr Syrskyi has signalled optimism regarding Kyiv’s own territorial gains since the end of January in a post on social media, claiming that the AFU had recaptured 400km² of Ukrainian territory from Russian occupation.

The US-based Institute for the Study of War estimated that the AFU had recaptured a more modest 200km² km so far this month, with losses of around 35km² elsewhere, however.

Tuesday marks the fourth anniversary of the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, which, despite ongoing US-led efforts to negotiate a peace deal, shows no sign of ending while the Kremlin remained fixated on annexing more sovereign Ukrainian territory.