The blame game: The Trump coalition is fracturing as America’s Iran operation stalls

Because of the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices surged sharply, followed by fuel price growth inside the United States. The average price of gasoline rose from $3.17 per gallon a year ago to over $4.00 today, while diesel climbed to nearly $5.70. This is driving up transportation costs for various goods and adding further inflationary pressure to the economy as a whole.

The White House has still failed to clearly explain to Americans the logic and objectives of the war, while public support from the outset was at a record low compared with other U.S. armed conflicts. According to polling, an average of 53% of Americans oppose the war, while only 38% support it.

Since commencing military action, Trump’s approval rating has fallen to their lowest levels since his return to the White House. Pollsters report that 56% of Americans disapprove of his policies, while in some surveys that figure already exceeds 60%.

After the publication of his statement about destroying Iranian civilization, more than 70 Democratic Congressmen called for the invocation of the 25th Amendment, which allows a president to be removed from office if he is unable to discharge the duties of the office. Most notably, those calls were joined by former Republican firebrand Marjorie Taylor Greene, far-right conspiracy theorist Alex Jones, and conservative activist Candace Owens, even if, among sitting Republican politicians and members of Congress, the idea found no support.

Notably, since its adoption in 1967, the 25th Amendment has indeed been used four times — always at the initiative of the presidents themselves, when they were about to undergo surgery or another medical procedure requiring anesthesia, after which they resumed their powers.The amendment does indeed allow the vice president, with the consent of the cabinet, to declare the president incapacitated and strip him of his powers, but the president can reclaim his authority by sending Congress a letter stating that he is fit for office. In that case, Congress would decide the dispute, and removing the president would require a two-thirds vote in both chambers — an even more onerous requirement than that for impeachment and removal, which requires a majority vote in Congress followed by support of 67 Senators.

It is extremely difficult to imagine such a scenario now. Vice President J. D. Vance and members of the administration remain loyal to Donald Trump and are unlikely to so much as attempt to initiate a palace coup, not even one carried out through constitutional means.

Equally unrealistic are calls for Trump’s removal from office via impeachment. Even if Democrats win the midterm congressional elections in November 2026, Republican senators remain loyal to the president, including on questions of war, as shown by the opposition’s unsuccessful attempts to pass one antiwar resolution after another. This means that impeachment proceedings against Trump would almost certainly fail to gain the necessary two-thirds majority in the Senate, just as attempts in 2019 and 2021 failed.

Still, although Trump is unlikely to face removal from office, it is clear that the war with Iran is causing obvious reputational damage to the president. According to polling, the war is supported by 77% of Republicans and 90% of those who identify with the MAGA movement, and Trump’s approval rating among them remains in the 80–90% range. But it is becoming increasingly difficult to win over ordinary voters who believed Trump’s 2024 promise not to start new wars. This reality is all the more important with midterm elections approaching in November.