ISW: Russian forces suffer net loss of territory in Ukraine for first time since 2024

Russian forces lost control of 116 square kilometres of Ukrainian territory in April, according to the latest monthly analysis by the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW), marking their first net loss since Ukraine’s occupation of Kursk in August 2024.

The loss follows a months-long decline in the pace of Russian territorial gains, down from a maximum of around 600 square kilometres in November 2025. ISW analysts also noted a year-on-year decline in Russia’s advance: in the first four months of 2026, the average rate of Russian advance was 2.9 square kilometres per day, compared with 9.8 square kilometres during the same period in 2025.

ISW analysts proposed several factors which may be contributing to Russia’s faltering advances, including successful Ukrainian counteroffensives, the February ban on Russian troops using Starlink terminals, and the Kremlin’s block against messaging platform Telegram.

Russian advances typically slow in March and April due to seasonal weather conditions, as thawing frosts and high rainfall cause muddy ground conditions that impede motorised transport. The ISW noted that Russia had “previously increased their advances in May and June as ground dries, and it remains to be seen whether such trends will repeat in 2026.”

Analysts also cautioned that year-on-year comparisons were complicated by the changing character of the war, specifically Russia’s increased use of “infiltration tactics” since autumn 2025.

In this context, infiltration refers to situations where small groups of soldiers penetrate Ukrainian-held territory or “grey zones” without establishing full control. Russia has increasingly resorted to infiltration tactics “in part to create the perception of continuous Russian advances across the front and to support Kremlin cognitive warfare efforts”, the ISW said.

Russia routinely overstates the extent of their advances in Ukraine to bolster morale. In early April, the Russian Defence Ministry claimed for the third time to have taken full control of Ukraine’s eastern Luhansk region, in an announcement which was immediately denied by Ukrainian commentators.

Oleksandr Kovalenko, a military and political observer at Ukraine’s Information Resistance Group, told Novaya Gazeta Europe at the time that Russia was increasingly resorting to making untrue statements of military victories in Ukraine amid a string of battleground failures.