The ripple effect: How the U.S. operation against Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz strengthen China, Ukraine, and Turkey

In some sectors, Washington is already beginning to lose its position as the region’s go-to partner. By the end of 2026, trade turnover between the Gulf countries and China is expected to exceed that with the United States and the European Union combined. Despite its role as the dominant currency for energy supply settlements, the dollar is facing increasing competition from Arab currencies and the yuan. And China is demonstrating readiness for increasingly deep cooperation.

The U.S. cannot be happy about these trends. Even more infuriating for Washington is the increasingly close technical cooperation between Arab states and Beijing. Following Iranian missile and drone strikes on American data centers in the UAE and Bahrain, China began promoting its capacities as a safer, more reliable alternative. The Chinese corporation Huawei, which is under U.S. sanctions, has even started using the phrase “regional disruptions” in advertising its cloud services, pointing out that its infrastructure is unaffected by such disruptions.

Huawei, which Washington regards almost as a high-tech arm of Chinese military intelligence, has affected American relations with its Arab partners on several occasions. In 2021, negotiations on the supply of American F-35 fighter jets to the UAE were frozen due to Abu Dhabi’s reluctance to abandon cooperation with the Chinese corporation, which had secured a contract to build mobile phone networks in the UAE. Then, in 2025, negotiations on the supply of F-35s to Saudi Arabia stalled for the same reason. The Americans fear that a Huawei mobile network covering the territory of both Gulf states could be used to identify and steal sensitive technologies used in the production of the aircraft.

Nevertheless, against the backdrop of the war in Iran, several Arab states are expanding their cooperation with Huawei. In addition, for several years Saudi Arabia has been purchasing Chinese laser air-defense systems, and the U.S. ban on selling strike drones to the Middle East has led several Gulf states to acquire Chinese alternatives instead.

The unexpected war has also accelerated the integration of Chinese AI solutions within Arab states’ armed forces for use in analyzing battlefield conditions and processing intelligence data. This trend undermines the Trump administration’s efforts to promote American AI for military and dual-use applications.

The Americans are trying to counter the evident tilt of its Middle Eastern partners toward China by offering F-35s in exchange for the abandonment of cooperation with Huawei.

It has been argued that China could begin supplying Iran with modern radar systems and man-portable air-defense systems, and American officials caution that such a move would trigger harsh sanctions against Beijing. “China is going to have big problems,” Trump promised — and in his formulation, such threats usually translate into new financial sanctions against both the source of concern and its active trading partners. It would be reasonable to assume that one of the first targets of Trump’s sanctions strike would be the electronic platform mBridge, where Middle Eastern oil is traded in yuan.