A blow below the tropical belt: Why Russia has struggled to gain a foothold in the Sahel

But local military success did not solve systemic problems. To consolidate the gains, Paris launched Operation Barkhane. Its goal was to help the Sahel countries provide their own security with minimal external support. Still, even at its peak, the contingent numbered only 5,500 troops — far too few to control an area the size of Europe. The strengthening of national armies played an unexpected role: they developed political ambitions.

In the end, the initiative failed. Local governments remained passive, and the French presence, which had produced positive results at first, increasingly came to seem useless and reminiscent of the recent colonial past. A deepening internal crisis led to a series of military coups: two in Mali (in 2020 and 2021), then one in Burkina Faso in 2022, and finally one in Niger in 2023. Events in Chad, where President Idriss Déby was killed in an armed clash in 2021 and power passed by default to his son, must also be added to this list. In short, nearly all of the region’s weak and corrupt (but legitimate and pro-French) governments were replaced by military juntas with revolutionary ambitions.

France’s postcolonial policy is changing before our eyes. Operation Barkhane was Paris’ last attempt to build a major regional coalition against radical Islam and in support of development programs. However, France lost 58 troops during Operations Serval and Barkhane, a toll that French society expected ought to produce visible results. Those results did not materialize. As hostile forces seized power in key countries, the mission lost its purpose. In 2025, France officially closed its bases in Senegal and Chad. Now, in the event of a new crisis, France no longer has the infrastructure in place for a rapid military response.

Even before that, Paris had reacted cautiously to regime changes. Sanctions and diplomatic pressure from regional bodies such as the Economic Community of West African States, or ECOWAS (also known by its French acronym CEDEAO), did not shift the new authorities’ positions. Neither did threats that lacked military backing. When Assimi Goita led a mutiny in Mali in 2020, France stopped short of forceful intervention. Paris accepted the new political reality, seeking to avoid accusations of occupation after concluding that past direct military interventions in similar cases had been a mistake.