Around Russia

Victory is a "Perigns"

August 13, 2020 Alexander Golts

As far as you can understand from scattered and probably distorting reality (there are no and cannot have objective observers in the civil war) messages from Belarus, there was a strange balance of the opposing forces. On one side of the scales-Lukashenkovsky tonton-makuts, precisely freed from chimera called "conscience". It can be stated: for decades, the Old Man insisted on his intimacy with the deep Belarusian people, for years carefully drove and prepared the forces of the merciless suppression of this very people. And it succeeded very much. At his disposal, several thousand well -trained fighters who received the powers of the occupation army and behave accordingly. In addition, a regularly working terror infrastructure has been created: prisons, courts, which in these prisons conveyively pronounced sentences. This system has successfully digested several thousand detainees, the stadiums have not yet been required.

It is more or less obvious that the unprecedented cruelty with which punishers deal with the civilian population-hunt for protesters, beat them to half death, shoot at the windows and balconies-not only to suppress any specific performances. Its goal is to scare, to immerse in horror quite peaceful, not preparing the power resistance of people. It is clear that Lukashenko crossed the line. The fact that a coup d'etat has occurred in Belarus is obvious to all participants in the conflict. At the same time, it is clear that in the case of “Victory”, that is, successful suppression of protests, the dictator will have to sit, well, if not on bayonets, then on police batons, traumatic rifles and light -school grenades. The country will establish a regime similar to the jows, which were many in Latin America about 50 years ago. With death squadrons, with concentration camps and omnipotence of the guard. Today, such frankly terrorist regimes are a rarity. North Korea, Burma, some states in Africa-that’s all. The emergence of such a regime in the center of Europe in the 21st century will inevitably create insoluble problems for both Lukashenko himself and for other countries.

Now the main question is what reserves the dictator has. If all the cash forces of the punishers are involved, then in a day or two exhaustion will come. Then the question will arise about the participation of the army. And this is the most important question today. We do not know with what feelings the military who swore to protect the people are watching how they deal with this people. Are they worried that they do not participate in atrocities and that the awards will go to eternal competitors from riot police and internal troops? Do you pray so that you do not have to become killers? Or are you ready to start this people to protect from riot police? Only armed people can win armed people. It is remarkable that records appeared on the network on which former special forces fighters burn or throw their uniforms and say that they are ashamed of service in special forces. It is even better that the current policemen for video cameras declare the refusal to comply with criminal orders. However, the question is how the army will react when mothers and wives turn to the military with an appeal “save from punishers!”.

On another bowl-the forces of protest, which, we will be frank, and it is difficult to call it forces. In the absence of a single resistance center, thousands of people take to the streets of Belarusian cities. They are not enough to mix the riot police and internal troops. But they come out every day to shout their disagreement with what Lukashenko created. And contrary to the hopes of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, who regularly reports on the decline in mass protests, they are not going to “calm down”. This is their strength. In this situation, the absence of a single coordinating center of the opposition rather helps her than interferes. The punishers have nowhere to introduce agents, there are no plans that could be opened and warned in a timely manner. Network resistance doomes power to purely response, deprives it of the initiative. It is pointless to catch activists when anyone becomes an activist. And the main question today, whether the protesters will be able to hold out until the moment until the forces of the punishers run out. This is a question of the next week. The victory in Belarusian is Perigns.

Photo: 12.08.2020. Belarus. In Minsk, protests are continuing against the results of the presidential election. IVAN Petrov/AP/TASS