Translated material
Davosa-2014 lessons
In the economy
Davosa-2014 lessons
January 29, 2014 Ivan Starikov
On January 26, the World Economic Forum in Davos ended. A number of obvious conclusions can be drawn.
Despite the apocalyptic predictions of various kinds of futurologists about the collapse of Western civilization, all hopes for the exit from the economic crisis are now associated with developed countries in the short -term and medium -term perspective. It is there that the foundation is laid and the potential of the new cycle of development of the world economy was accumulated. The conditions have been created for a technological breakthrough to a new level. Whether this concerns alternative energy, nanotechnology, quantum computers or medicine.
Developing countries, in particular, the BRICS countries, which the previous decades have been engines of world economic growth, for various reasons and with different signs slowed down their pace of development. The growth indicators of their GDP are clearly demonstrated.
We are still worse. There was a collapse of economic growth at record high prices for hydrocarbons. It is due to both the exhaustion of the infrastructure detention, which was getting from the USSR and the poor quality and rapid degradation of state institutions. In export -oriented China, the main reason is to reduce demand for goods produced in the country, as well as the repatriation of industrial capacities in the United States and Western Europe, which began after the global financial crisis of 2008.
One of the main conditions of high growth in developing countries was a quantitative softening program. A large -scale emission of American dollars was adorbed primarily by the economies of these countries. However, the collapse of exchange financial derivatives and other surrogates of money supply, bursting bubbles in the mortgage market in 2008 plunged the world economy into the financial crisis.
I must say that the governments of the G8 countries made the correct conclusions. The main player of the global economy - the USA - will soon begin to curl up the quantitative softening program. This is evidenced, in particular, the replacement of Ben Bernanke as the head of the Fed with Gzhann Yellen, who, in its determination and hardness, resembles Elvira Nabiullina. D. Yellen has always been skeptical of the practice of large -scale monetary issuance and knows how to coordinate the FRC obligations to control inflation and increase employment.
What will this situation lead to? Obviously, to the flight of capital from developing markets, the devaluation of national currencies, which in turn will unwind the flywheel of inflation in their economies. For Russia, this can have very severe consequences, since high prices for hydrocarbons no longer give economic growth, and the ruble devaluation will disperse the inflation rate. An unenviable prospect looms on the horizon - to get into the dead swell of the economic phenomenon called stagflation. There is another extremely unpleasant moment: the outflow of capital today is $ 72-76 billion.
However, the Government of Russia has other ways to patch holes in the budget system and for a short time to spur economic growth, except for the devaluation of the ruble, remains. But this will certainly begin to prevent the modernization of the economy! For example, for automobile equipment deployed in Russia, the main components for which are purchased abroad, this will become fatal. Such a desired ratio for our consumer prices and quality will be inevitably impaired. In these conditions, unemployment will begin to grow. AvtoVAZ has already announced a reduction in 7.5 thousand people. And this is only the beginning. So the transition to the floating course of the ruble, which the head of the Central Bank has already announced, "will help to pull out the nose, but the tail will get bogged down."
There is another terrifying truth. Economists will understand me. It consists in the fact that with $ 150 billion of annual Russian exports and the average oil price of 111 dollars per barrel at the beginning of the year, $ 650 million remained on the current operations. Less than 1% of the export volume. We have an almost zero balance of foreign trade balance. It demonstrates the extreme instability of the Russian economy.
No illusions. Our economy has no serious internal sources for GDP growth, except for the constant increase in world prices for hydrocarbons. And the price of price up to 80-75 dollar per barrel will devour all the accumulated sovereign funds of the country during the year.
There was almost no time left. A quick replacement of a flawed, archaic, strategically unpromising raw material model is needed. And Russia has such an opportunity!
The main monopoly but extremely poorly used resource of our country is its territory. Russia spreads 17.1 million square meters. km and nine time zones between East Asia and Europe. Between the global assembly factory and 850 million quite wealthy consumers. In 2013, about 40 million containers (or 900 million tons) proceeded along this global route. Of these, just over 50 thousand - according to the Trans -Siberian Railway at an average speed of 10.3 km/h. At the same time, the throughput of the country's main railway line is limited to 120 million tons.
In November 2013, being an official visit to South Korea, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a memorandum between Russia, South Korea and China about the possibility of building a transcontinental railway or a new Silk Road. The implementation of such a large -scale international project will diversify the flawed raw material model of the economy on transit. Create about 7 million jobs, launch a new urbanization, industrialization of the country, and form new centers for the attraction of capital, labor, goods and services in the eastern part of the country. To solve a number of political problems associated with the growth of the colony complex in a number of regions of Siberia and the Far East, the manifestations of separatism and subcivalization faults in Eurasia. Conduct real modernization of the country using advanced technological solutions and Western civilization and Russian science. High -quality improve degrading state and public institutions.
The start of such a project must be given in Novosibirsk on October 16, 2016, in the 100th anniversary of the opening of the through traffic along the Trans-Siberian Railway.
The capital of Siberia is located in the middle of the transcontinental route from East Asia to Europe. Novosibirsk is a two -million city, it has a powerful industrial and scientific potential of the Siberian branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences. The city with its fantastically rapid development (120 years ago there were two villages here) is obliged to build a Trans -Siberian Railway. The engineer Garin-Mikhailovsky for Novosibirsk is a cult figure, he is rightly considered the founding father of the city.
It is here, in the center of the Eurasian space that it is necessary to give a new impetus to the development of the country, connecting the West and the East, giving a real embodiment to the symbol of the two -headed eagle on the emblem of Russia.