Will we live? On Mars?

“The Trinity version is science” marks 5 years. At the time of its creation, April 1, 2008, we probably did not think about such a distant perspective and lived one day. Now, our experts are thinking about how real the flight of a person or even a married couple to Mars in 2018 and what will happen to astronautics in 10 years (see page 4-5). On the eve of the newspaper’s anniversary, we invited the leading Russian scientists to dream or make a forecast by answering the question: “What will happen to our science and education in 5 years, if everything goes as it goes?”

Sergey Guriev , doct. Economy. sciences, professor, rector of the Russian economic school

In recent years, two key processes have been in Russian science and education. Firstly, it is an increase in transparency and the fight against corruption. Secondly, this is the allocation or construction of institutions integrated into the international community and competitive from an international point of view. I am sure that both of these processes will continue - accompanied by loud scandals (including political). At the same time, the illusions that scandals can be avoided should not be. It is also necessary to be prepared that the responsibility for these scandals, of course, will not be on those who should carry it from the point of view of history or higher justice.

The main problem of Russian science and education is that their condition is much worse than ready to accept Russian society. Therefore, the main question: whether the awareness of this fact will occur in the company in the next few years or not. My hypothesis is that this will happen.

Five years later, the scientific and educational community will be much more divided into two parts: an insignificant minority that plays according to modern international rules, and the majority, which continues to pretend to be science and education. I hope that just five years later, society will understand how important this minority and its process will begin (inevitably slow) growth.

Alexander Markov , doct. Biol. sciences, senior researcher at the Laboratory of the Higher Invertebrate Institute of Paleontology of the Russian Academy of Sciences, the creator and author of the project “Problems of Evolution”, the winner of the Provenitor Prize “Enlightener” of 2011

In fact, I do not like to predict the behavior of complex SI Stem, controlled by many factors, many of which cannot be evaluated quantitatively and the relationship between which are basically unknown. This is an ungrateful activity. There are too many random fluctuations in the behavior of such systems.

On the other hand, there is a universal algorithm for forecasting such semi -chiotic systems that often allows maximizing the chance of proper guessing. It is necessary to give a short -term forecast: “Everything will be approximately the same”, but long -term: “Everything will be different.” For example, tomorrow the weather, perhaps, will be approximately the same as today. And in a week, probably another.

When you compare the weather forecasts with reality, sometimes it seems that weather forecasters are economically limited to the use of this wise algorithm, and all these weather stations and probes are so, to take the eyes. But the algorithm does not work so badly. Well, we will play the predictor.

For such a large and inert system as Russian science, a forecast for five years is more short-term than long-term. Therefore, I would put on the fact that everything will be approximately the same that radical changes will not happen. Science in Russia will not experience a sudden new heyday, but will not die completely. Gradual wilting will continue. “Demand for Science” will still be low.

From the point of view of the ruling elite, in the short term it is really easier and more profitable to buy ready -made technologies and knowledge abroad than to create your own. And to build plans with the expectation of the long -term perspective and even more distinctly in our chaotic system. Because in a week the weather, most likely, will be different (including for the ruling elite).

Public “demand” for science (fashion, interest, manifested, in particular, in the number of schoolchildren who dream of becoming scientists) will fluctuate around the current low level. There are factors that contribute to its growth. For example, a certain growth of well-being in the last decade, which generates some confidence in the future and some kind of self-esteem, stimulates research behavior, albeit in a thin, but gradually expanding layer of normal people.

With this favorable trend, the rapid development of scientific popularization observed in recent years has been closely connected (positive feedback). There are factors that, on the contrary, contribute to a decrease in public interest in science. For example, political, such as an outlined course towards the imposition of primitive patriotism in the form of a hostile attitude to the West, the steady penetration of religion into the education system and much more.

Therefore, it seems to me that in general everything will still be. The number of scientists in the country will continue to decline (amid the growth of this indicator in almost all other countries where there is science). Some, not very numerous scientific groups and laboratories will continue to work “at the world level”, actively cooperating with Western scientists and making up a small but worthy part of the system of world science. Another, perhaps a larger part of researchers and groups, for one reason or another “not reaching” to the world level, will still produce products of dubious quality, publishing it in local “messengers”.

At the same time, for such groups, a temptation will grow into isolationism and the risk of marginalization. After all, to be the author of an “alternative great theory”, not recognized as a rotting West exclusively because of the inertia and cornation of the so -called “science”, is much more pleasant and prestigious than just a second -rate scientist.

The emerging political course towards dissociation from Western civilization and its values ​​will, of course, contribute to such isolationism and marginalization of domestic scientific schools.

The traditional “patriarchal” way of our scientific community, based on personal relations, reciprocal, circular bail and respect for authorities and past merit, which in moderate doses is good, and when bringing it to the absolute, it is fraught with degradation, especially in combination with the seductive possibility of self-insulation and ignoring the opinions of world science. For example, often we have the head of the laboratory or institute continues to occupy his post for a long time after due to age and illness has lost its clarity of mind and the ability to lead a normally, and even more so-the ability to be critical of his own “alternative great theories”. All this, I repeat, is good, but in moderation.

Against the background of this rather dull general picture, islands of normal, living science will still be preserved - a sort of fireflies in the swamp. Of course, they will someday become the basis, a cost, the foundation of the new heyday of Russian science. Only this will not happen tomorrow, but about a week later, when the weather changes.

Vladimir Yadov , Dokt. philosopher. Sciences, Honorary Doctor of the Institute of Sociology of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Professor, Dean of the Faculty of Sociology of the State Academic University of Humanities

I think that the situation will take shape relatively more favorable for the physical, mathematical and more or less favorable for the natural sciences, while the social and especially humanitarian areas will be in an even more deplorable position. “Physicists” will continue to be ensured by the maximum possible resource support of the state, and “lyrics” will survive at the expense of internal resources. Resources for state subsidies for “remnants” (from priority)-and fanatics-researchers and “morons”-students, which are devoted to their business, i.e. People, as it was said, is not from this world.

The realities are as follows. Over five years, our society will not come close to society by post-industrial, human-centric, and the consumer motivation for the vital of the vast majority of the population is more likely to strengthen due to the increase in welfare to moderately acceptable, which exacerbates the so-called relative deprivation of needs, i.e. A sense of infringement in comparison with more wealthy fellow citizens.

In short, it all depends on the pace of economic growth and not least on the recognition of the socio-humanities and relevant education no less significant for the development of the human potential of Russia than the education of spirituality based on religion.

Alexey Ustinov , Dokt. physical mat. sciences, professor of the Karlsruhe Technological University of the Physical University, winner of the 2011 megagrators competition, head of the laboratory of superconducting materials MISIS, member of the managing committee of the Russian quantum center

I think that two new modern universities with their campuses and invited professors from around the world will appear in Russia. Many of our scientists who are now abroad will return to part of their time or for good to Russia. A new generation of postdrods will grow up, which, having worked abroad, will return to Russia to work in science on very comfortable conditions. The Academy of Sciences will come closer to universities, but many of the problems that have caught its problems will not be able to solve. Russia will enter the full partner in the scientific programs of the European Union.

In science, the first quantum processors with 10-20 cubes will appear. A quantum repeater will be created, which will give a strong impetus to the development of quantum communications technology. Quantum wholesale and physics of quantum hybrid systems will develop rapidly, new sensors and devices will appear. Majoran farmions in special materials, theoretical works about which are now filled out magazines, most likely will be forgotten. New layered materials based on graphene will appear, and not only it, their physics will be very rich and will develop violently.

Sergey Lando , Doct. Fiz-mat. Nauak, professor, dean of the faculty of mathematics of the Higher School of Economics

Firstly, I would like to congratulate the “Trinity Option” on a glorious anniversary: ​​53 newspaper numbers were released over 5 years. Having arisen as an oasis in the middle of the desert, the TRV noticeably changed the landscape around himself, became a source that attracts people who are concerned about the current state of Russian science and ready to apply their strength to improve it. Substantly representing various points of view, the newspaper contributes to the informing of the scientific community and all those who are interested in the ongoing processes and outlined trends, actions taken by both the authorities and socially active groups of researchers.

As for the nearest future Russian mathematics, I suddenly had grounds for optimism. This optimism is caused by a variety of processes, little related to each other. Among these processes:

- the decision to continue the award of megagrators allocated to all three mathematical laboratories, meaning state recognition of the success of their activities;

- The emergence of the inaugural decree of the President of the Russian Federation on the development of the concept of improving mathematical education in Russia by the end of 2013. As far as I know, at present, several groups throughout the country are working on alternative versions of the concept, and it cannot be excluded that as a result a reasonable action plan will be adopted and implemented;

- Increase in the Dynasty Foundation Dmitry Zimin's funding for prizes for young mathematicians and financing conferences. In particular, as a result, in 2013, the fund supported almost one and a half times more conferences and schools held throughout the country than in 2012;

-the creation at the Skolkovo Institute of Science and Technology of the Mathematical Department-another educational and research center with attractive working conditions;

- a competition of development programs of a number of Russian universities, which are aimed at entering their first hundred international ratings. For all the ambiguity of the ratings, participation in this competition will force universities to lure leading scientists and promising youth, and by nature the ratings of success criteria will lie outside the sphere of achievement of the scientific bureaucracy. And if fresh living people come to the mathematical faculties of universities, then strong graduates of schools who are currently not seeing the benefits of continuing mathematical education will inevitably reach them.

However, I do not notice a significant deterioration in the situation in other areas of mathematical life. If at least some of these processes receive a worthy continuation, then we can talk about normal conditions for the development of mathematics in Russia. If, more than aspirations, all of them will be successful, then we can expect, scary, the beginning of a new heyday.