Where is he going?

Everyone, of course, remembers this phrase from “17 Moments”: “Stirlitz is walking along the corridor. - Which corridor? - Along our corridor. -Where is he going?

The direction of movement of KGB Lieutenant Colonel Putin is even more mysterious than the direction of GRU Colonel Isaev. Moreover, M.M. Isaev classically typed a step, as in a parade, and moved straight forward, and V.V. Putin also moves classically, but this is a slightly different classic: “one step to the left, two steps to the right, one step forward and two steps back."

In principle, such a “bunny loop” step is normal for a politician. But it is difficult to understand where exactly Putin’s sinusoid is meandering, and who he is deceiving (“luring”). And often out of grief the thought comes - what if everyone (or, what’s the same thing - no one, just yourself?).

In general, the faded “Who is Mister Putin?”, oddly enough, arose again. After the YUKOS case, after the raid of tax nomads on various businesses, after the not very successful, but fierce fight against “American agents” in Georgia, the Baltics, Ukraine and Moldova, after whipping up hysteria on state channels about the fact that the United States is surrounding us “ cordon sanitaire”, etc. etc., after all this, it seemed that everything was already clear. It is unclear who the owners of Baikalfinancegroup are, but it is clear that they are (or will very soon become) the owners of CJSC Kremlin, which, in turn, has a controlling stake in OJSC RF. Bad, but clear.

But then there was a rollback - not in the right sense of the word at all! The rollback is ideological, Putin is again shrouded in a liberal fog. Liberal gestures towards big business (reducing the period of prosecution for privatization deals from 10 to 3 years, vague but effective promises to protect business from tax arbitrariness), an ultra-liberal presidential message. Or, May 9: Putin almost embraced Bush, the next day negotiations with the European Union, a more than conciliatory speech regarding Schröder. I wonder, by the way, what the verdict will be for Khodorkovsky-Lebedev, in which direction the zigzag will follow this time... It is characteristic that a step in any direction is quite possible - our government is so “strong and highly fluctuating.”

I repeat once again: hesitation is the norm in politics. But tactical fluctuations can a) work for some strategy, b) not work for anything, but be “on their own,” “to pass the time.”

And I’m very afraid that what we see is just PR for the sake of PR, hesitation of indecision, “there is nothing to do,” or even from “there is nothing to do.” Oscillations are not for the implementation of the “main line” (or at least to disguise it), but oscillations INSTEAD of any main line, oscillations for the purpose of masking... the absence of this line. Moving in a circle is simply for the purpose of exercise.

“He would be Brutus in Rome, Pericles in Athens, but here he is a hussar officer.” So who is he? So where is he? So where are we with him - are we today and will we be tomorrow?

Pinochet? Authoritarian on the face, liberal on the inside? Maybe - 13% income tax, liberally conceived reform of benefits, housing and communal services, pensions, reasonable financial policy. The hell with it - tax raids, decline in investment, judicial and administrative arbitrariness, corruption madness.

A KGB lieutenant colonel in all his KGB glory? Maybe – the nationalist rhetoric of Kremlin propagandists, the destruction of pro-Western TV channels, the fall of liberal parties, the cancellation of gubernatorial elections, the first “spy” cases. No, it doesn’t look like it - friend George, American bases in Central Asia, establishing relations with Yushchenko, preserving fragments of freedom of speech, the liberal rhetoric of the president himself.

There - here - back, it’s nice for you and me... Where is the truth, where is the disguise?

There is no clarity on any issue. 2008 – leaving, staying, leaving to return? West – are we expanding their presence in the economy, or reducing it? NATO – friend, foe? “Orange republics” of the CIS – a “cordon sanitaire” around Russia or our Russian corridor to the West? The CIS itself - is it there, is it not? Tax raids – continue (who’s next?), stop?

The dry residue is as follows. We are getting deeper and deeper into the oil needle (by the way, the standard of living is rising accordingly... while prices are rising), the division of society is increasing, integration into the global economy continues. Well, from my point of view, it’s not that bad at all. “It’s not so bad” not in the sense that “it doesn’t get better,” but in the sense that it can be much worse, and no one has offered a reasonable alternative other than senseless chatter.

So, bravo, Mr. Putin? And if for this you need to further “separate the patriots”, then seduce them, for God’s sake - you’re doing it well.

There is only one “but”. The authorities, while “divorcing” the national patriots, nevertheless awakened the nationalists. But it is known that you cannot wake up anyone in Russia! Yes, these “Tomorrow patriots” are as rotten as the “Apple liberals”, just like the dead Union of Right Forces, they do not have (even on the horizon) a charismatic leader, etc. That's it. But “even though there are no laws on their side, they have the support and enthusiasm of millions.”

It is very dangerous to give loans to nationalists, and even imperial ones. It is very dangerous to kindle (or, more precisely, not extinguish - they themselves catch fire) xenophobic, anti-American, etc. to awaken emotions, all these “good feelings” from the TV screen. Of course, no one in the Kremlin even thinks of following these sentiments “seriously.” But “an idea that has captured the masses becomes a material force.” Always shifting from foot to foot, always being “a little pregnant” with nationalism, not that it’s completely impossible, ... but damn difficult. The people there are simple, hungry, angry - why bring meat under their noses and immediately take it away... and so on a hundred times in a row? The scissors between nationalist rhetoric, which generates corresponding hopes, and reasonable (and mostly just holo-corrupt) actions of the authorities can dangerously widen. And there is a danger that these scissors will click very unpleasantly.

However, maybe they won’t click. But, as a rule, there is nothing more capital than “maybe it will cost” in the stash of the Russian authorities. And, as a rule, it works out.