Insured event

The current collapse of the ruble and the Russian stock market was predetermined. It is predetermined even when it has become obvious: the system is unreformed, its collapse is inevitable. To guess to what heights the dollar will rise and to what depths the quotes of Russian shares will be launched is pointless. Since the blasphered state machine, which determines the state of what is called by the Russian economy and that the economy is essentially not, not only an unreformirum, but also unpredictable. Under these conditions, of course, you can try to earn money on the growth of the dollar or a fall in shares, you can try to catch a “rebound” and make money on this. But it should be borne in mind that the “rules of the game” can change at any time, turning income into losses. And, say, if until recently, the free conversion of the ruble was a “sacred cow” for the economic authorities, since it guaranteed foreign investors to return investments, now it is an extra “bow”, which at any time can be completely painlessly liquidated. The last Western investors in the conditions of sanctions from Russian assets come out, and the eastern ones are used to focus on guarantees of a completely different kind.

So if the exchange rate of a potential enemy begins to distract the population from the completion of the tasks indicated in the presidential message, foreign exchange transactions already lined with income tax may completely prohibit or seriously limit. And it will be called “counter -sanctions” so that the electorate does not forget who the true culprit of all our economic troubles. The same applies to the stock market. Today it is, but if the quotes behave too “wrong”, we will live without the stock market. How we live without French cheese and Polish apples. Most likely, it will not be canceled at all, but to limit direct access to the “speculators”, leaving only “professional participants” on the market, who correctly understand the “party line”, can easily. And no arguments will work any economists in the conditions of an “undeclared war”: where is the war, there is a wartime economy, living according to completely different laws and sets completely different goals. When the country is in the ring of enemies, it is customary not to profit from speculation, but to delay the belts and make your own contribution to the piggy bank of the future victory, which will certainly be great.

If we speak seriously, now life in Russia is balancing on the verge between “disgusting” and “dangerous”. No new recipes have appeared over the past 4 years. Again, like in the spring of 2014, it is relevant to think about “plan B” in case everything goes wrong. It’s good that Russian banks still continue to give loans, having taken which, you can buy a currency stock. It will allow you to live a couple of months if you have to urgently leave the country. It is not about the way to cash in on the growth of the course (although the probability of earnings on such an operation is significantly higher than 50%), but about a kind of insurance from political risks that seem extremely high.


Photo: Russia. Moscow. April 10, 2018. Electronic scoreboard at the exchange rate point. Anton Novoderezhkin/TASS