Defolt crept up unnoticed

Last Thursday, when the Verkhovna Rada approved the composition of the new government of Yatsenyuk, who in the near future has to pull Ukraine out of the state of actual bankruptcy, receiving a friend of a friend from Switzerland. My friend serves as a representative of one of the local traders. They sell metal rolling, including Ukrainian pipes.

Until now, he writes, each such transaction has been insured - this is a standard procedure for such transactions, regardless of the country of origin of the goods. So last week their company received an official notification from its Swiss insurer, who announced a complete refusal to insurance support for any contracts with counterparties in Ukraine.

The insurer refers to the opinion of Swiss and European banks to the explanation of his decision.

I quote literally: “The reason is that the allocation of financial assistance to Russia is currently unlikely, and“ Western ”assistance will follow only after [early presidential] elections and on the terms of the IMF. It will take a lot of time, even after the election. Meanwhile, it is extremely low likely that financial support will follow this (whether in the form of loans or grants). This means the presence of a high risk of default [Ukraine by its obligations].

The decision [on the refusal of insurance] is also based on the assumption that it is impossible to exclude the start of the civil war if the eastern regions of Ukraine will be reborn with the support of Russia, as happened in Georgia. ”

All this is me to the fact that while politicians, journalists and other world communities in the subjunctive mood thoughtfully rubbed about whether Ukraine can avoid default and split, the real business is already working based on the fact that both plots are materialized. And thus, in turn, they are brought closer.

The Saturday Demars of Russia regarding Crimea, alas, seriously strengthened the grounds to consider the option of the beginning of the war as quite real.

As for the state of the Ukrainian economy and finance, even before it was clear that, quoting Yatsenyuk, they were terrible. The treasury is empty, the debts are huge (here I quote the new Minister of Economy Sheremet).

There is nothing to pay salaries and pensions, a full-fledged banking crisis looms in front of the nose, the hryvnia collapsed to the floor, the enterprises lie on the side, the Owners of the oligarchs left closer to the money. And now it is still time to declare universal mobilization ...

In general, a full pipe.

In this position, the only task in the field of economics that will seriously (and will be able to) solve the new office of the “political kamikaze” of the Maidan is to negotiate with international donors to allocate financial assistance. It is very significant in this sense that in the structure of this government did not even find the Ministry of income and fees. And then it is true - what to breed bureaucracy, if neither the first nor the second in the foreseeable perspective Ukraine shine.

Yatsenyuk has already called the amount of “donations” required for survival - $ 35 billion (taking into account Crimea, it may take more). To begin with, they plan to contact the IMF for a loan worth at least $ 15 billion. About 4 billion euros want to shake off the European Union.

Be that as it may, these amounts are enough only for the first time and for the most urgent needs - to pay pensioners and creditors.

And here, it seems to me, there is one very curious detail: the largest holder of Ukrainian bonds (worth about $ 7 billion) is the American investment company Franklin Templeton Investments. Only from the beginning of the year, on these investments, she lost about $ 500 million-due to the unrest in Kyiv, the papers were very lost in price.

Defolt, if the Ukrainian government cannot find money quickly, it will be likely to mean a complete loss of these investments. But in such a scenario, the star manager of TempleTonmark Mebius (the one that not so long ago did not let Igor Sechin bent TNK-BP minority, forcing him to redeem their papers at a normal price) does not believe. He regards the probability of default in Ukrainian Bonds as low, being in the belief that the West and Russia will provide assistance.

So it will be curious to compare the amount that will manage (if possible) to knock out the Yatsenyuk government from the IMF, with the cost of Ukrainian bonds in the portfolios of Western creditors.

As for financing from Russia, it is difficult for me personally to me, unlike the Guru Mebius Guru, that Moscow will want to lend to the government of the Maidan. Especially now, when relations between Kiev and Moscow for obvious reasons simply hung .

Another thing is important: in any situation, that is, regardless of whether Ukraine will receive emergency financing or not, ordinary citizens of Ukraine will have to survive very difficult times. Let me remind you that the rigidity of the IMF requirements in exchange for loans (including, freezing salaries and a sharp increase in gas prices for the population) convinced Yanukovych to turn off the European path towards Russia.

And in this context, default is very unpleasant, but by no means a catastrophic exit.

Kohl in war, so in the war. And most importantly, many defaults of recent years, including the example of Russia-98, indicate that countries come out of such crises relatively quickly. At the same time, they have a chance to qualitatively improve the structure of their economy, increasing its competitiveness and attractiveness for investors.

It is in this - investments, and not endless credit handouts that enrich the close associates of the oligarchs and financial speculators, but not improving people's lives and real economies - Ukraine is extremely needed now. In fact, the call of George Soros to the leading EU countries is aimed at this, in fact, to organize a new “Marshal plan” for Kiev.

Russia, take a more constructive position in relation to Ukraine, there would be all the possibilities to become one of the key participants in this pan -European initiative. But after the Crimean demarche, last weekend, it seems to be just right to put an end to this.

Just one solution, and what effect: we again rapidly turn into a world outcast (the “seven” has already announced the freezing of preparations for Summitg8 in Sochi, capital is panicky from the country, the ruble and the stock market are lying into the abyss). It is possible, we will soon see the new Marzhin-Colas (yes, as in a crisis), problems with servicing debts and even bankruptcy of individual companies (we are following the fate of Mechel). And this, I note, against the background of the already disappearingly small growth rate of the economy. We are waiting for Western sanctions, which, according to Bank of America, can cost Russia 3% of GDP.

And if suddenly, for some reason, oil prices fall ... Say, the alarmed world community will decide to turn to the Arabs with a request to increase prey due to the threat of tanker shipping in the Black Sea Straits (the USSR drained this in full before the collapse). Then, two or three years of such a life will be enough for him, dear, it crept up to us. As always, imperceptibly. Are insurance for Russia still prescribed?