Tehran captive

The Russian diplomatic mission in Baghdad lost five people on June 2. Four captured and one killed. It seems that it took Iran less than 24 hours to respond to Russia’s recognition of two groups that Tehran actively supports as terrorists. Let me remind you that on June 1, the Russian Supreme Court blacklisted the Syrian Jund al-Sham and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad.

The official reason for this decision by the Kremlin, judging by reports from Russian state media, was the expansion of the activities of these organizations in the territory of the former CIS. According to other information, an agreement to include Jund al-Sham and Islamic Jihad on the blacklist was reached between representatives of the Russian Foreign Ministry and the US State Department before the negotiations of the “six” countries on Iran in Vienna.

Russia has supported Iran for too long to now be surprised at the actions taken by the leadership in Tehran. For too long, Moscow did not want to agree with Washington, London and Jerusalem that Iran is the main sponsor of terrorism in the Middle East.

The old and new (Hamas) ties of the Kremlin with various terrorist groups in the Middle East, with the help of which Moscow “balanced” the situation in this region, were too close.

Apparently, now the leadership in the Kremlin will be faced with a real choice, the essence of which goes much further than attempts to find and free four hostages.

Moscow will either have to agree with the “Western” countries that all the latest warnings to Iran, without taking real measures against it, will yield nothing, or make a deal with Tehran, convincing it of the inviolability of friendly relations with this country.

There are, of course, other options. For example, deny Iran the supply of Tor M-1 missiles or stop long-term construction at the Bushehr nuclear power plant, as well as nuclear cooperation with this country in general. However, these measures are unlikely to have a serious impact on the leadership in Tehran or discourage the desire to kill or kidnap Russian citizens throughout the Middle East.

Air defense systems may not be so modern; Iran will be able to buy, for example, from China or the DPRK, and the same Chinese or Pakistanis will complete the construction of Tehran’s nuclear power plant until they are caught doing this. In addition, Iran may well refuse Russia contracts for the construction of new nuclear power plants, which will not least affect the friendly relations between the two countries.

The situation with Iran's participation in the murder and abduction of Russian citizens in Iraq looks extremely uncomfortable for Russia today also because Moscow's recognition of the regime in Tehran as terrorist will inevitably lead to a decrease in its status in the Persian Gulf and the Middle East.

Agreement with the United States and its European allies on the issue of sanctions or a military solution to the crisis will turn Moscow from an independent entity to be reckoned with into just one member of the alliance. For some people in the Kremlin, this option will look like a defeat, since the Russian battle for the Persian Gulf and the Middle East will end for the time being.

Remember the children's poems about “The House That Jack Built”? So, Russia’s refusal to support Iran, which supports Syria, which supports terrorists in the Middle East with Tehran’s money, will force the leadership in Moscow to build a “new house,” that is, different relations with all the key players in this region. Not to mention the situation in the Caucasus, where the situation between, perhaps, a new Iran and Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan will begin to develop completely differently.

Moscow’s behavior in the Tehran story is reminiscent of the chief surgeon’s desire to go away for an hour to have a snack at a time when the lobotomy operation is in full swing. If the Kremlin is really as strong as it wants to seem, then it needs to act as toughly in the current situation as it has been doing with “Western” countries lately.

According to the principle of former US Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage, who, having flown after the events of September 9, 2001 to meet with Pakistani President Musharaff, made it clear to the latter that he had no choice between the fight against terrorism and protecting it.

However, you can replace the real development of events with a virtual one. Blaming the Iraqi government, US-led coalition forces, the CIA and, in extreme cases, Iraqi militants for the murder and hostage-taking.

Or quietly negotiate with Tehran to release the hostages and forget about this incident. Then, indeed, the surgeon will be able to go away to eat, but the patient will be saved without him, who has lost the right to operate on patients for a long time.