Translated material
On the creation of "Rosfinagengies"
In the economy
On the creation of "Rosfinagengies"
January 30, 2013 Maxim Blunt
The law adopted by the State Duma on January 26, which provides for the creation of the “Rosfinagnague” - the structure that will be transferred to the Office of the Russian State debt, the means of two Russian sovereign funds (reserve fund and the National Welfare Fund) and, possibly, pension accumulations of citizens - made a lot of noise. Someone saw in this law the next somersault of the “enraged printer”, someone hastened to declare the privatization of government reserves, which provides for their subsequent plunder.
Of course, one can consider all the laws adopted by the illegitimate Duma without exception, insignificant, which automatically makes the creation of the "Rosfinagnagnant" illegal, at least from the point of view of the unsystematic opposition. In this case, there is nothing to discuss here. And if we discuss, it is better to do it a little more reasonably and professionally. Otherwise, you can achieve the opposite effect by pushing people away prone to substantial analysis. In addition, sooner or later we will have to establish a life in which there will no longer be Putin or a “furious printer”, adopt new laws, build new state institutions and radically reform the old ones. Having risen to this position, we will try to disagree with the situation.
First of all, it should be said that there is no talk of any privatization of the reserve fund and the national welfare fund, they are both and will remain sovereign funds, in one of which government reserves accumulate in case of falling oil prices, and money in the other to stabilize the pension system. There is an old discussion about whether it is necessary to accumulate reserves, and it makes no sense to take the topic to the side, the question is different. The new structure will only manage the funds of these funds, and this activity of the “Rosfinagenes” will be rigidly regulated by law and by -laws, where, among other things, strict limits will be established for investing funds in certain types of securities, restrictions on the purchase of securities of one issuer, etc.
Now the funds of sovereign funds are mainly stored in currency and are invested by the Bank of Russia along with other international reserves in low -rental high -rental foreign bonds. That long, even before the crisis, has become the subject of criticism by opponents of "financing the budget deficit of the United States and Europe." To a large extent, it was this criticism that became the reason for the search for ways to expand the tools for investing funds for sovereign funds, including at the expense of Russian infrastructure and other projects. In addition, the Ministry of Finance (from the Kudrin times) would like not to give the process of investing government reserves to the Central Bank, but to control it on its own.
In addition to the Central Bank, the VEB was allowed to invest in the national welfare fund, which at the end of 2008 “saved” the Russian stock market, buying up the money of the funds of the largest Russian companies and banks. As a result of this operation, the Web in less than a year earned tens of profit for the FNB, after which he repeatedly raised the question that it would be nice to repeat such a successful experience, or even make constant practice at all. In turn, the Ministry of Finance is concerned not so much by highly profitable speculations in the Russian stock market as the lack of “long” money in the economy, necessary, for example, to finance infrastructure and other long -term projects. Such money could be FNB funds and money from the accumulative accounts of future pensioners, a significant part of which is controlled by the same VEB. Finally, the VEB is also an agent of the state debt management, and this function of it will also move to a new structure.
Thus, the “Rosfinalism”, which after the first reading should be created in the form of an OJSC, with a 100 percent share of the state, receives part of the functions and powers of the Central Bank and part of the functions and powers of the Web.
It is worth recalling that the VEB exists in the form of a state corporation and, among other things, is the main Russian Institute for Development. It was through the VEB that the Russian economy was supported during the crisis, it is the VEB that will emit infrastructure bonds and invest the funds obtained as a result of the issue. And it is the VEB that places state debt papers. Thus, the state corporation is both a buyer and the seller of the same securities. By managing the public debt - sells by managing pension accumulations of citizens - buys. If the Rosfinagance receives the right to manage pension savings, this conflict of interest will remain. It will be profitable for the seller to sell papers at the maximum price with minimal profitability, as an investor - to buy at a minimum price in order to extract maximum income. But with regard to infrastructure bonds, this conflict of interest will be removed, and these bonds will receive a market assessment that will allow them to acquire them to private investors (for example, non -state pension funds).
Now a few words about the legal form. Initially, the Ministry of Finance proposed to create a "Rosfinalism" in the form of another state corporation. However, in 2009, serious doubts arose in the effectiveness and advisability of the further existence of state corporations. It turned out that the "state monsters" who appeared in 2007, which received hundreds of billions of rubles from the state and called for the “locomotives” of authoritarian modernization, did not become any locomotives. On the contrary, opaque and almost uncontrolled structures have created a nutritious environment for theft and corruption. It turned out that any (even VTB and Gazprom) OJSC (if it is roughly not violating the law) that is obliged to regularly publish the reports confirmed by independent auditors and report the essential facts of their activities is more transparent and openly than any state corporation. Then, in the fall of 2009, President Medvedev instructed to work out the issue of the gradual elimination of state corporations as a class - by corporal or natural termination of activity (for example, Olympstroy, which should cease to exist after the Olympics in Sochi). Medvedev’s “Crusade” against the state corporations, like many of his other undertakings, did not end in anything, but the decision to create a “Rosfinagance” in the form of OJSC was made then. So if we talk about the form of a new structure, it is better to let it be an open joint -stock company than a unitary enterprise or state corporation. Now, however, there was talk that during the second reading, the law will be amended, and the Rosfinagance will not be OJSC, but a non -public corporation. And if you have to protest, then against it.
Finally, a few words about the content. From my point of view, the fundamental decision looks doubtful to invest part of the funds of the national funds in the action. The Ministry of Finance hopes that the profitability of shares can be higher than the current return from the placement of the funds of sovereign funds. But a higher return on investment in the action is by no means guaranteed. Quotes can not only grow, but also fall. And here it is appropriate to remember why, in fact, Russia is needed by the National Funds. The reserve fund is designed to ensure the stability of the state budget during low oil prices. It is at such moments that his assets are sold, and the proceeds are panting budget holes. However, low oil prices, as a rule, accompany the slowdown of the global economy, financial crises - all those moments when the stock markets collapse, forcing investors to get rid of shares. Including for a loss. If the reserve fund in the growing market is invested in shares by heating the market even more, and during periods of the collapse to sell, aggravating the fall, nothing good will work - neither for the market or for the fund.
In addition, if we are talking about shares of Russian enterprises, then in fact it will be nationalization. The state, acting directly and through quasi -state structures (like Gazprom, Rosneft, Rosneftegaz), already in recent years increased its presence in the economy to an unacceptable level.
The creation of the "Rosfinagenism" is a serious step. There are trillions of rubles to the stake. About 4.6 trillion rubles have accumulated in Russian sovereign funds, and about the same amount of Russian internal debt is estimated. External debt is about 41 billion dollars. Managing such means, no doubt, is extremely profitable. And no one doubts the fact that, creating a new structure, the Ministry of Finance tries to intensify at the expense of the Central Bank and VEB. Like no one doubts that officials and their most warm posts and their brilliant financial education children (as is happening in VEB or VTB), who will use insider information and provide their future at the expense of the state. And in this sense it will be no better and no worse than now. Nevertheless, the new financial configuration looks more transparent, controlled and delivered from conflicts of interests than the one we have today.