TOP -100 against "5–100"

What are the chances of Russian universities in a year to enter a hundred best?

Two years left before the completion of the 5-100 project, according to which the Government of the Russian Federation obliged to introduce at least five leading Russian universities into the top 100 three leading world ratings, as which it determined the British ratings of QS and The, as well as the Chinese (Shanghai) rating of Arwu. It was assumed that they should include participants in the 5-100 project, but we will consider a wider selection of all leading Russian universities.

Now it is no longer difficult to make an appropriate forecast.

As leading Russian universities, we chose “global” universities-participants in the 5-100 project, federal universities, national research universities, as well as other leading universities included in the world ratings of QS, The and Arwu. The positions of these universities in the above ratings were considered at the seven -year interval (2012–2018). In total, 52 leading Russian universities were identified in these ratings: 29 national research universities, 10 federal universities, four “global” universities that are not part of the first two lists, and nine others. After that, a summary table of positioning of these universities in two world British ratings at a seven -year interval was built and gross linear extrapolation of data for 2020 was made. Separately, a table of participation of Russian universities in the Shanghai ranking of Arwu was built.

From table 1, we see that, since the British ratings of QS and The are close in their methodology (SCOPUS database, polls of scientists and employers), in general, universities included in one of these ratings are included in the other. Getting into the Arwu rating, the methodology of which is based on more stringent criteria (the Web of Science database, publications in Nature and Science , the presence of Nobel laureates) is very difficult, so there are very few Russian universities in it (four universities out of 52, see Table 2).

Table 1. Global, federal, national research universities, as well as other universities included in the world ratings of QS and The (2012-2018)

1 - Global Universities, 2 - Federal Universities, 3 - National Research Universities, 4 - leading Russian universities that are not included in previous lists, but included in one of the global ratings (QS, The, Arwu)

Table 2. The entry of leading Russian universities into the Arwu rating

From table 1, we also see that the same universities in the ranking of The are worst position compared to the QS rating. In addition, it follows that three of the 21 Global University were not included in three ratings in question for seven years, out of 10 federal universities there were five of such universities, out of 29 national research universities - seven.

MSU almost from the very beginning of the launch of ARWU (since 2004) was in the top 100 of this rating, and we exclude it from further analysis. What are the chances of other universities to get into the top 100 ratings in question in 2020?

Based on the data of table 1 and the most rough forecasts based on linear extrapolation of data, it can be concluded that not one of the 51 leading Russian university will be able to enter the TOP-100 of the ratings under consideration. Such extrapolation of data for the QS rating made it possible to build table 3.

Table 3. Leading Russian universities with real chances of entering the upper zones of the QS rating (gross linear extrapolation of data) in 2020)

From table 3, only the possibility of entering three Russian universities in the top-200 rating of the QS rating. What was the mistake of experts when justifying the 5-100 project? It was necessary to carefully analyze the values ​​of all indicators for the tail parts (90–100th place) of the TOP-100 selected global ratings, comparing them with the same values ​​of the best Russian universities. Next, we had to see what the most sensitive indicators of our universities we can influence in order to optimally increase the value of the integral indicator (Total Score) and with the least efforts to approach the above foreign universities. Here, the task of simulating modeling of the combinatorial plan arises. If such an approach was chosen, then no competition would be needed, but simply would have taken and allocated money to a small number of universities based on simulation modeling. Therefore, from the very beginning, a project to modernize Russian higher education and increase the competitiveness of Russian universities into two projects should have been defeated from the very beginning. One - related to the modernization of education itself; bringing the number of foreign teachers and students, respectively, to 10 and 15%; And the other with global ratings and a publication race, that is, with the promotion of Russian scientific research in the world scientific space. Since global university ratings also solve the tasks of the first project at the same time, it was possible to set less stringent conditions for it-for example, the entry of universities into the top 300 of the above ratings. And for the second project, it was necessary to conduct simulation modeling at the beginning, as we wrote above, and allocate money to those universities that can actually be included in the top 100 ratings of QS, The and Arwu.

What needs to be done to somehow decently complete the project "5-100"? To do this, hypothetically, you can concentrate in 2019–2020 all the funds of the project in four (Tomsk (Tomsk), Nnigu (Novosibirsk), St. Petersburg State University, MSTU named after N. E. Bauman) or seven (NITSU, NNIGU, SPbU, MSTU named after N. E. Bauman, myfi, MIFI, NIU HSE) universities (Table 1, 3), of which two are two of which are two The University (St. Petersburg State University and MSTU named after N. E. Bauman) are not participants in the 5-100 project. But this is unrealistic, as it will cause a lot of complaints and discredit the initial project. The easiest way would be to declare that they did not mean general, but subject ratings, then the program is more likely to be made, but this is also not a way out, since it will cause the same complaints.

So, the positioning of the positioning of 52 leading Russian universities in three world ratings (QS, The, ARWU) at the seven-year interval showed that in 2020, not one of the Russian universities, with the exception of Moscow State University, has practically no chance of entering the top 100 of the above ratings.

Vladimir Moskovkin,
doct. Geogr. sciences, professor of NIU "BelSU"