Sergei Ivanov and Empress Cixi

Vladimir Putin removed Sergei Ivanov from the post of Minister of Defense and appointed him First Deputy Prime Minister.

With any normal personnel policy that takes into account feedback from reality, and not just from the corridors of the Kremlin, such an appointment would be incredible.

In fact, let's ask ourselves a simple question. If Mr. Ivanov is appointed First Deputy Prime Minister, the position of official successor, then why not leave him part-time defense, which he will already be in charge of? Is the task too large? Will Mr. Ivanov be knocked off his feet? Well, yes, but they appointed the former head of St. Petersburg Mebel-Market JSC as Minister of Defense - and he will solve all the problems for Ivanov. That is, if Ivanov is a worthy person who has earned a promotion through his deeds, then it would be logical for him to leave the ministry.

And if Mr. Ivanov is fired from the post of Minister of Defense as a person who has failed everything possible in army reform and army life; as a person whose every statement left society with a feeling of deep amazement; as a person who is sincerely incapable of perceiving what happened to Private Sychev or Private Rudakov as anything other than the machinations of enemies, then why appoint him as an official successor? The post is somehow too big for the well-known “dismissal by promotion” maneuver.

The problem is that resignations and appointments in the Kremlin do not depend on such small things as army reform, hazing, Russian prestige or basic professionalism. The Kremlin adheres to only one reality: the reality of the 2008 elections.

Sergei Ivanov, as a potential successor, was subject to sharp attack from Sechin and K., and it was clear that as the elections approached, this attack would only intensify. In these circumstances, Mr. Ivanov's presence as Minister of Defense clearly added fuel to the fire; because if a person who is actually appointed to manage something perceives any problem as the machinations of enemies and answers questions: “They didn’t report to me, so there is nothing serious” (neglecting even the elementary bureaucratic “I’ll sort it out”), then such a person at the moment pre-election showdowns - a living walking target, a turtle without a shell. And open fire on it will rock the boat beyond the permissible limit.

Of course, any tough ruler will punish both sides of such a quarrel - both the Minister of Defense for sticking his side, and those rocking the boat for rocking the boat. But President Putin does not fire his friends, he only promotes them.

Paradoxically, the same unprofessionalism and incompetence that makes Sergei Ivanov unsuitable for the post of Minister of Defense in an election year makes him ideally suited for the post of successor.

Although, of course, it should be remembered that in fact the successor is not the future president. A successor is a current bureaucratic position that serves as a convenient administrative tool for solving current management problems.

I would compare the status of the successor with the status of a child emperor under the Chinese Empress Cixi. In China at the beginning of the 20th century, there was also a constitutional problem of sorts. According to the prevailing views at that time, the empress could not rule, but only the emperor could rule upon reaching adulthood (president Putin, according to the Constitution, must cede power after 8 years of rule). Therefore, there has always been an official emperor. But he was always underage. When the emperor became an adult, he disappeared somewhere, and in his place another minor emperor was formed.

So I have no doubt that in the end the Kremlin will find no less ingenious solution to the 2008 problem than Empress Cixi.