Well, a very cold war

The Kremlin is increasingly reminiscent of the same factory from the joke, where any sewing machine will be turned into a Kalashnikov. I suspect that the communication between Putin and Medvedev with the secretaries of the primary branches of United Russia was intended as a demonstration that the main bosses live in the interests of the people. However, something didn’t work out: when answering questions about social benefits and the introduced limits on electricity consumption, the bosses went into vague discussions about the need to save. Concern for the people under his jurisdiction was clearly not visible. And then irresistible means were used to demonstrate inescapable patriotism. The leaders of the primary organizations of EdRa began, as if on cue, to take an interest in the most pressing problems for Russians. For example, will the budget conflict between the US President and Congress affect the lives of domestic disabled people? Finally, the shock question came. Viktor Zakrutny, chief specialist of the Production Control Department of the Industrial Safety Management of OJSC Kola MMC, secretary of the primary branch No. 2 of the party of the Pechenga district of the Murmansk region, showed excellent knowledge in the field of social networks. He said that he “came across” an article on the Internet (in fact, it was a remark in a Facebook discussion), where a certain Russian scientist proposed to transfer the Arctic under international jurisdiction.

The main boss took full advantage of the situation. First, Putin spoke about American submarines, whose missiles are aimed at Moscow and St. Petersburg. And then about the fact that, due to global warming, golden rain is about to fall on our vast Motherland. The ice in the Arctic Ocean is rapidly melting. As a result, the Northern Sea Route will provide the shortest route connecting Europe and Asia. In addition, it will be possible to extract countless amounts of oil and gas hidden on the ocean floor. It is clear that the insidious West will definitely encroach on our Russian happiness. It's time to prepare for armed defense of our interests.

Putin recalled that a detachment of 10 ships and escort vessels of the Northern Fleet, led by the heavy nuclear cruiser Peter the Great, had just sailed to the New Siberian Islands. As a result, everything that was necessary to resume the operation of the airfield, which ceased to exist in the early 90s, was brought to Kotelny Island. Let me note that what Putin calls a “Soviet military base” consisted of several barracks in which there was a company of radar technicians with antediluvian equipment.

Surprisingly, in the minds of top officials, the development of the Arctic is equal to its militarization. Meanwhile, it is far from a fact that global warming, which seems like manna from heaven to the Kremlin inhabitants, will bring wealth to our country. After all, in addition to the ice, permafrost will also begin to melt. For many kilometers deep into Russian territory, the coast will turn into swamps. How, one might ask, in this case, create the entire infrastructure for supporting the sea route and oil and gas production? Moreover, according to the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, there cannot be any restrictions on navigation for other countries when traveling along the Northern Sea Route. Therefore, contrary to Putin’s dreams, servicing the Northern Sea Route is not so profitable, since Russia will be forced to provide transit foreign ships with communications, meteorological and hydrographic services and rescue services, without receiving any payment for this. The only opportunity to earn money is to provide pilotage and icebreaker support services for ships and developed infrastructure services. It is enough to look at the map of the Arctic coast of our country to understand how developed that infrastructure is...

As for the use of the route by Russian ships, 1.2 million tons of cargo were transported in 2012. At the same time, the use of the Northern Sea Route can be profitable with a load of 4 million tons, according to some estimates, or 14 million tons, according to others.

In fact, for almost 80 years of the existence of this route, no one has ever asked the question of its payback. Military bases and camps are the main facilities that the Northern Sea Route worked to provide. Now the main hope is that oil extracted on the sea shelf will flow through this transport artery. However, at present, all the largest Western oil producing companies have abandoned the development of the Arctic shelf: it is too dangerous and expensive. In addition, large-capacity vessels cannot travel along the Northern Sea Route today. It is in the area of ​​the New Siberian Islands that one should look for passages for ships with a draft of over 12 meters.

At the same time, despite the passionate calls of Igor Sechin and Dmitry Rogozin, Russian shipbuilding companies are not at all eager to build drilling platforms and icebreakers. I think that precisely for this reason, in the eyes of Russian leaders, the development of Arctic riches, as well as preparations for development, comes down mainly to building up the military presence. Or, more precisely, demonstrations of such growth. Currently, the entire military potential of our country is concentrated on the Kola Peninsula - the far west of the Russian Arctic. This is the Northern Fleet Marine Brigade and the 200th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, which is the remnants of the Soviet 131st Division. Plus two air bases and two anti-aircraft missile regiments. As well as the ship composition of the Northern Fleet. And this is practically all that is in the gigantic space of thousands and thousands of kilometers from Murmansk to Magadan. There are, however, also stations monitoring missile launches.

This dislocation did not arise by chance. Throughout the post-war period, the Arctic was a zone of military confrontation between the USSR and the USA. It is from the depths of the ice-covered ocean that it is most convenient to launch nuclear strikes on the enemy. The main task of all Soviet Armed Forces in the Arctic - the surface forces of the fleet, aviation and ground forces - was to ensure the possibility of combat patrols of nuclear missile submarines and to protect their bases on the Kola Peninsula. This was a clear military task. No one set out to control and defend thousands of kilometers of icy desert. The surface forces of the Northern Fleet actually cannot operate east of Novaya Zemlya - they have nothing to rely on in terms of basing, ground support and air cover. That is why the campaign of the fleet ships to the New Siberian Islands turned into a heroic epic. The appearance of a small jump airfield there, of course, will not change the situation in any way. In order to ensure patrolling of gigantic territories, it is not enough to deploy large aviation forces. It is necessary to bring a huge amount of fuel by sea. Which, as the campaign showed, is extremely difficult to do. I suspect that this airfield is not particularly needed by strategic aviation, which has developed quite effective non-stop routes to reach the line of attack on US territory.

Finally, this symbolic “buildup” of military power is completely counterproductive from a political point of view. In the Arctic today, the interests of the United States, Denmark, Canada, Norway and Russia collide. Since each country has its own interests, Moscow has enormous room for maneuver; it can enter into alliances with some against others, make compromises and achieve its goals. However, such a diplomatic game is possible only as long as Russia does not try to threaten with weapons. As soon as it risks using this threat, the collective defense mechanisms of NATO countries will inevitably come into play. And instead of defending its interests by building tactical alliances with individual countries, Russia will be forced to confront a united front of Western states. In addition, Russia needs both the riches of the Arctic Ocean bottom and the possibilities of effective transit only in order to profitably “sell” them to precisely those states that it intends to threaten with military force.

So, it turns out that we have nothing to defend by military means in the Arctic (at least for now), nothing and, most importantly, absolutely no reason. Why does Moscow so persistently demonstrate its commitment to the military side of the development of this region? To be fair, we note that it is not only Russia that is playing war games there. Almost every year, the Canadian Prime Minister visits distant Arctic garrisons and observes the maneuvers of the troops deployed there (very modest in number, I note). From time to time, senior officials of the American Coast Guard start a song with their Russian colleagues about the need to ensure a presence in the Arctic and demand the construction of another icebreaker.

The problem here is that today the Arctic is an ideal field for demonstrating great-power ambitions. This allows politicians to occupy the front pages of newspapers and demonstrate their patriotism to voters. The Arctic is actually the last disputed region of such gigantic proportions. This is a region where the interests of Moscow and Washington, former global adversaries, collide. So the Arctic is a great setting for a Cold War parody. And do not answer questions about housing and communal services. I’m only afraid that for the military personnel of the airfield commandant’s office created on Kotelny Island, this virtual war will be very cold.