Basaev-Kyarov plan

Our security forces are decisively unlucky. On June 22, 2004, they conducted anti -terrorism exercises in the Far East: according to legend, the terrorists seized the hill there and proclaimed independence from Russia. The hill was gnawed by aviation and "Grad" - the exercises ended very successfully. By unfortunate coincidence, at this very time, Basayev militants entered the tale and all night, without any counteraction, pounded the cops, and the local population, hanging from the windows, sometimes gave them sympathetic advice. Basayev forgot to warn that for the success of the anti -terrorist operation, he should not go to the tale against him, but to take a deserted hill.

This weekend, the special forces under the command of Patrushev took Elbrus, and Nikolai Platonovich reported: “The goal set before the exercises was achieved. The readiness of special forces and aviation of the FSB of Russia to perform anti -terrorist tasks in the most difficult conditions was confirmed. ” As luck would have it, a few hours after this report, right under the nose of Patrushev and this very special forces, the most loud sorting out of the Kabardian militants happened since the rebellion on October 13, 2005: in his car, the head of the UBOP Anatoly Kyarov, a target number two after the former head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Republic Khachim Shogenov, was riddled.

Moreover, this time Nikolai Platonovich is strongly not to blame: if the stupidity of the exercises about the terrorists who took a deserted hill collars his eyes, then the landing on Elbrus is a reasonable thing; However, for the reasons that will be discussed below, the coincidence of exercises and murder is no coincidence.

The murder of Anatoly Kyarov does not at all indicate the strength of the Kabardian underground. Against. The fact that Kyarov survived for so long indicates the extreme weakness of this underground.

The fact is that it was Shogenov and Kyarov that were the main oppressors of the Kabardian Wahhabis and, as such, the reason for the uprising on October 13. It was these two people who were responsible for everything: for raids in mosques; for scorched beards; for crosses shaved on their heads; For a beaten pregnant woman who had a misfortune to jump into the bakery without a passport, but in a scarf. In a word, they did everything that not only the Wahhabis is rebelled, already dreaming of a Caucasian caliphate and believed that a defensive jihad, but also a Buddhist is on his land.

The actions of the Kabardian Ministry of Internal Affairs before the rebellion had nothing to do with the law, morality, or with a cynical sound state meaning. The Ministry of Internal Affairs simply expanded the sphere of influence, and if there is a rebellion, it is all the better: we said that these are rebels! After such a rebellion, the Ministry of Internal Affairs would be authorized to bent, tilt and torment everyone, and the head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Shogenov would become the owner of the republic.

Fortunately, this did not happen. The Wahhabis raised the rebellion on October 13, 2005, a few days after the appointment of the new president of the republic, Arsen Kanokov. And the major businessman Kanokov had disgusting relations with Shogenov: not alone Wahhabis, as you know, the Ministry of Internal Affairs tried to bend and torment. Kanokov succeeded the miracle: the “winner of the Wahhabis” Shogenov quietly resigned, the repressions against the militants did not turn into continuous sweeps, as in Ingushetia.

Now everything is peaceful in the republic: according to some estimates, up to a thousand people from among the "prayers" prefer not to appear at home, but live quietly either in Pyatigorsk or in Moscow. The cops do not particularly bother their families, and with routine bypass, in order to combat Wahhabism, they make, of course, dirty tricks, but in general they are limited to collecting quite idiotic certificates like: “I don’t go into the mosque, I don’t pray at home, leading a calm lifestyle”. There are practically no militants in the mountains. According to local residents, no one goes to the cats, begging for food. Helicopters and riot police, constantly combing forests (but do not deliver special worries to local), are not found. And cases like the fact that it was two months ago near Chegem, where the militants with a fright shot nine hunters, taking them for special forces, are a monstrous exception.

I repeat once again: the fact that the armed Wahhabi underground managed to get to Anatoly Kyarov two years after the rebellion, testifies to his weakness, and not strength. Moreover, Shogenov is quietly drunk at a poorly guarded dacha, and Kyarov went without armor: so in Dagestan even a district prosecutor will not go.

In a word, Kabarda, thanks to its president, did not turn from the republic into a burning bonfire. The fire, which was equally beneficial for both the security forces (this increased their omnipotence and impunity) and the Wahhabis (this brought the hour of the formation of the Caucasian caliphate). This plan in Kabard can be called the Basayev-Shogenov plan, just like a similar plan in Ingushetia can be called the Basayev-Izazikov plan. Unfortunately, in Ingushetia the plan worked one hundred percent.

But now the situation in the Caucasus, stabilized in the last two years, began to change strikingly. She began to change in the summer, with a complete loss of control over Ingushetia. And even more everything rolled down with the resignation of Dmitry Kozak from the post of presidential envoy to the Southern Federal District.

The symptoms of this deterioration in all republics are different, but in principle the disease is one: uncontrollable federal sweeps that give rise to only the bitterness of the local population and force it to pick up weapons. Mini-cheach is either in hymrs, then in old Achatuk. The most terrifying situation is in Ingushetia, where any control is lost and where, in essence, even stripping is already impossible to incur already, because the villagers, often together with the cops, beat off the arrested.

At the same time, the federals, on the contrary, left the Chechnya. And after this departure, the world came, and the cruel, but effective point operations of the Kadyrovites began. A simple example: on December 31, two police officers were killed in Grozny; This was done by the militants, taking revenge on their comrades who died two weeks ago. They vowed to kill 100 cops for them. It did not work out with 100 cops: the first of the Avengers was liquidated on January 9th. Undoubtedly, the militants greatly ruined Kadyrov New Year's holiday. But this is impossible in Chechnya that, as part of a response hit in the village of Vedeno or finish, the Chechen riot police arrives, caught a hundred chickens and broke two sheds.

This circumstance - the restoration of Chechnya - forces us to assume that there is no centralized plan to replace the Caucasus by the feds. There is just a drunken major who, being unable to catch real militants, shoots for a “tick”. Otherwise, they would have started with Chechnya.

And now, in fact, back to the execution of Kyarov. The most important thing is the time chosen by the militants for the execution. It can be assumed, knowing the morals of our authorities that as soon as Patrushev remained in the republic after the conquest of Elbrus - conquest was celebrated. With all the scope characteristic of our service.

And imagine the picture with oil: the Chekists celebrate success, a bathhouse, brooms, beautiful girls, vodka under a salty cucumber. And then the assistant bakes and reports: Kyarov was killed. What is the reaction? "R-open." And there were cleansing in the villages, because no one knows how to otherwise, but it is necessary to report.

I do not think that Kyarov’s murder and Patrushev’s visit is a random coincidence. As in the case of the operation of the militants on June 22 in Nazran, the main goal here was not the murder. The main goal here was to cause the response of the federals, multiplying the number of militants.