Translated material
Smoke without fire
In the Kremlin
Smoke without fire
October 6, 2005 Anton Oresh
There is such a temptation. Well, there is. For everyone who was born in the USSR and to whom this USSR did nothing bad, the news about the possible unification of someone with someone in the vastness of the former union is good news. In the end, why not? We will connect with the Belarusians, merge with the Kazakhs , and there, you look, and someone else will do. Armenians are the same.
Another thing is that with Belarus we have been uniting for a year, but still cannot “separate flies from cutlets”, despite the titanic efforts Pal Palych. By the way, a person has life - leads to what does not exist in nature, and is absolutely happy.
And now, then, also Kazakhs? It is impossible to figure out who and when this idea came to mind. Yes, and did you come? But this shaky integrity is the usual state of our policy, when even clearly said words have a second meaning. Therefore, it remains to decompose into the multipliers, not knowing what will end up with the sign “equal”.
In the territorial sense, the unification is good. We are used to large territories, and Kazakhstan is the largest of the CIS countries.
In economic - even better, because Kazakhstan is raw materials and minerals, and our oligarchs, along with the government, will not have to come up with anything new, it’s enough to do the same thing that they have done in Russia. In addition, if we compare relative indicators, all kinds of ratings, inflation, GDP and the like, then there is no particular difference between us.
Political systems are similar, both verticals are being successfully built there and there. In Russia, however, this is just a vertical. And in Kazakhstan this is a nationalist vertical. Only no one talks about this with us. Nazarbayev manages to preserve with everyone, primarily with Russia, not just friendly, but warm relations, to have a reputation in the world of an “enlightened monarch”, governing his country in a completely Asian.
He is much smarter and cunning than Niyazov, Karimova, Lukashenko. I generally believe that Nazarbayev is the most intelligent and most cunning of all the former -Soviet leaders, and therefore achieves everything that he wants, without raising noise and preserving his feudalism with a human face. And if our Kremlin strategists believe that they will be able to unite with Kazakhstan on favorable conditions for them, they are deeply mistaken.
However, is it possible at least theoretically? Well, theoretically everything is possible. By the way, if you have not forgotten, it was Nazarbayev that was the first to talk about the unification of the three Slavic republics and Kazakhstan into the Eurasian Union and almost at the CIS returned to this idea. And his desire seemed even sincere, because he was unlikely to expect to become the head of a single state. However, a few years ago he calmed down. What can make him return to the old plan?
The same as Putin. That is, one way or another, the desire to remain in power longer, subject to at least the appearance of decency. But is the path too complicated? Firstly, this is a long time. Even with the full consent of the parties, the settlement of all formalities will take more than one year. Secondly, if Nazarbayev does not want to leave, he may just ... stay.
Inside the country, he has no opposition, no multi -colored revolutions on the agenda are standing, and certainly not out of fear of them he will go to cunning schemes. And world public opinion, on the one hand, is generally not much interested in countries such as Kazakhstan, on the other - it is already used to the Central Asian order, and if there is nothing against the Turkmenbashi in the world, then there will be nothing against Nazarbayev and even more so. In addition, all Signing Leaders clearly demonstrated to everyone that the position of the first guy in the village is where it is pleasant. The desire to manage a small and weak, but its country was one of the main reasons why the Soviet Union fell apart so rapidly. And Nazarbayev, with all his past calls to unite, is not such an exception. So if something like romantic nostalgia has not woken up in him, he has no reason to deprive himself of absolute power, and he has no independence, he has no independence.
As for our leader, he, perhaps, has a desire to lead not only to Russia, but the 88th percent of the former USSR (Russian Federation+Kazakhstan), but rather, he would prefer some simpler and faster way to remain in power, which analysts counted a lot without unification of the two countries. And his sponsored country without Kazakhstan is rather big. He would at least cope with her.
Anton Oresh
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