Referendum on the status of Crimea March 16

The Crimean parliament voted for joining Russia. In addition, the Crimean authorities decided on the date of holding a referendum on the status of an autonomous republic, as well as what questions the residents of the peninsula will answer. Plebiscite is appointed on March 16. Citizens will be offered a choice of two options:

"Are you for the reunification of Crimea with Russia on the rights of a constituent entity of the Russian Federation?"

"You are for restoring the action of the Constitution of the Republic of Crimea 1992 and for the status of Crimea as part of Ukraine?"

The appointment of a referendum for March 16 makes an objective calculation and control of the results completely impossible, and the whole procedure turns into profanity. By and large, the referendum on March 30 already looked doubtful - it is impossible to form normal election campaigns so quickly and conduct the whole process. But to appoint it on March 16 or, for example, the day after tomorrow is already the same, nothing can be changed. The decision of the Verkhovna Rada of Crimea itself would hardly be possible without the preliminary approval of the Russian side. The way Russia will behave now is the most interesting. There are two ways. One of them is to agree to accept Crimea in Russia as subjects after a referendum, which will pass the other day. But this is an extremely harsh option. A less stringent, but quite logical scenario - to declare that Russia respects the principles of international law and therefore cannot annex to annex to annexes a stranger state. But at the same time, he draws attention to the requirements of the inhabitants of Crimea, promises them protection in case of attacks from Ukraine or third countries and initiates the negotiation process about the future of the region. Thus, the peninsula is actually withdrawn from the jurisdiction of Ukraine and turns into another unrecognized republic in the territory of the former USSR. This option seems the most likely, but after all what happened and the first script no longer seems impossible.

If we talk about the reaction of Kyiv, then it is predictable. Of course, no decisions made in the Crimea are recognized there, but they have no way to influence the situation, there are simply no appropriate levers. The reaction of Western countries is more interesting. In fact, a fundamental issue is being resolved now - a challenge by their former chief geopolitical enemy, who seeks to be reborn in such a capacity. And in this sense, the situation in Ukraine is more important than in the same Syria, Libya or anywhere else. Either the West will find the strength to set the “red flags” along some line, then Russia will not be able to go, or the West will sign that it has no opportunity to stop Russia on a certain part of the globe. And this will mean the formation of a new world reality.

There are no Ukrainian elites that support the separatism of Crimea. Most likely, there is no unanimity even among the actual Crimean elites. More recently, any step along the pathism path was accompanied by two steps back. Most likely, at the moment their actions are already dictated by an external player, they cannot defend their interests and are forced to act in a new paradigm. As for the actually Ukrainian elites, they, apparently, have already been forced to write off their assets and plans on the peninsula, although, perhaps, prematurely. But Crimea has never been one of the industrialized regions of Ukraine. There are not so many assets of leading Ukrainian financial players. The Earth has been sold out on the coast, in recent years, the Yanukovych family and the Azarov family were very successful in this, but it makes no sense to discuss how their interests will be defended. In general, in addition to a unique situation on the Black Sea, Crimea has no economic advantages. And Ukraine does not economically experience additional pressure without Crimea. Of course, right now, no investors do not want to go to Ukraine at all, but in some even short-term perspective, the provision of this region in itself will not change the provision of the country.

Crimean Tatars, most likely, will be against it, and here it is impossible to exclude armed clashes with the most radical part of them-both in the form of a direct confrontation and some partisan actions. You can also allow the appeal of at least part of the Tatars to the third players, for example, to the same Turkey. In general, the Tatar problem is fraught with serious challenges and threats, including for Russia, although their number from the total population of Crimea is relatively small, 13-17%. In general, people who do not want to join Russia are even more there, but the Tatars factor are most significant. Predicting the result of the referendum, it must be said that if it is held in 10 days, it will be possible to expect amazing results: at least 80%, or maybe all 95 will be “for” joining Russia. 146%, of course, will try to avoid, but less than 85%, in a good way, should not be omitted.


Photo by ITAR-TASS/ ERA/ Maxim Shipenkov