The Kremlin wants war in Iran

According to Dmitry Peskov, the press secretary of the Russian Prime Minister, Vladimir Putin, when communicating with foreign analysts, opposed both military actions against Iran and the introduction of sanctions against this country. The paradox is that

With its decision to withdraw support for new sanctions against Tehran at the UN Security Council, the Kremlin has brought Washington, Israel, the Gulf countries and Europeans closer to agreeing on a military solution to the Iranian nuclear crisis. After all, by blocking the adoption of sanctions, Moscow is depriving the world community of any instruments of influence on Tehran.

In the short term, this position of Moscow can hardly be called absurd. Otherwise, it will inevitably lead to disaster - that is, serious economic problems within the country, loss of influence in Europe, the Caucasus countries and most of the Arab states of the Persian Gulf. It may happen that in the end, apart from Khrushchev’s infamous boot, the Kremlin will have no other evidence of its own importance, especially since there are few of them anyway.

Enough to argue that with their position on Iran, Putin and Medvedev once again showed the West that anyone should press the ill-fated “reset” button, but not them.

There is no point in wasting time analyzing the appeal of two leaders to the nation, voiced recently by the President of the Russian Federation. Especially the part related to foreign policy and Russia’s role in the world. Its role under the leadership of a prosperous tandem has long been clear and understandable and has nothing to do with the well-being of the country.

There is no need to pay attention to the “serious” question to Putin about who will be the president of the Russian Federation in 2012 - as if this will change anything. It is worth noting that the Russian prime minister, who said that he and the president are “of the same blood,” showed a deep knowledge of “Mowgli”, thereby switching from the more familiar vernacular dialect to the fairy-tale language of children. Such a remarkable transformation could (and even then only at first) surprise only Rudiard Kipling, who was pulled out of the 19th century into modern Russia for the presentation of his “The Jungle Book.”

It's time to end speculation about the exchange proposed by Washington to Moscow for consent or silence when voting on sanctions against Tehran. And finally, it’s time to put to rest the tired talk that the Kremlin’s attitude towards Iran is a litmus test for its foreign policy. Some experts and politicians never tire of wiping their sweaty foreheads with this piece of paper, explaining many of Moscow’s decisions by its own invented “humiliation” of Russia by the West.

None of this makes any sense because the Kremlin really seems to want a Western war with Iran. I have no other explanation for Moscow’s behavior, especially considering that statements about the approaching end of the crisis in Russia have nothing to do with reality.

But the sharp rise in prices for oil, petroleum products and gas, as a result of the war from the West with Iran, will really enable the Kremlin to emerge with full chests from the crisis, which has become a pain for the two heads that personify Russian “sovereign democracy.”

I dare to assure you that such a political calculation will inevitably turn into a Pyrrhic victory for Moscow. And not only because in this case, hundreds of billions of dollars flowing into the budget, the Stabilization Fund, the Reserve Fund or the Greening of Russia Fund will definitely not be spent on diversifying the country’s economy. The last nine years have clearly shown that the Kremlin is trying to stay away from this “nonsense”, limiting itself to words that strongly contradict deeds.

Russia's foreign policy influence, based on opposition to the West, long-standing friendship with rogue countries (good evening to you, Evgeniy Maksimovich), energy and power pressure on Europe and its closest neighbors, will end very quickly. Within five, maximum ten years after the end of the war with Iran (if it happens), Moscow will lose influence on Tehran after a regime change in this country caused by the dire economic situation.

Europe will receive Iranian gas and will speak to the Kremlin in normal, not bird language. After this, such a close and dear Syria, where the ships of the Russian Navy moor so freely and serve well the Russian military instructors who protect the fraternal “sovereign democracy” from the Israeli “aggressors,” will disappear from the Kremlin wall.

Memories of partnership with the regime in Tehran, meaningless dreams of a gas monopoly in Europe and influence in the post-Soviet Caucasus will become the only refuge for those who dreamed and/or declared imperial ambitions of an economically weak, and therefore overly aggressive country. Those whose knowledge and abilities differ from those of their early communist predecessors only in the degree of greed and theft.

It is difficult to imagine that the Arab countries of the Persian Gulf and the Middle East, which are really afraid of Iran, will cooperate with Moscow, which in every possible way provokes a conflict between the West and Tehran. Especially considering that Iran's possible response will not leave them out of this conflict.

The Stalinist position, slightly modified by the current Kremlin, which led to the outbreak of World War II - “we will make money from their fight, and then we will come and take what is bad” - will not bring long-term dividends to the same Kremlin.

There will be more national projects, fewer results, the money will run out or go to different pockets (there are many examples of this amazing phenomenon in the Russian Federation), but no one will take anything away. Rather, on the contrary, the Russian two-headed old woman will remain an old woman in front of a broken trough. However, even without a war with Iran, everything that is written above will most likely happen more or less within the same time frame, with the same sad results for Russia. Sad, because there is no chance for a real improvement in the current Kremlin’s relations with the West, as well as for carrying out the necessary economic and political reforms in the country.

A regime that relies only on very dubious strength and natural resources, in the absence of basic freedoms, civil society, and economic knowledge, is doomed to major external, internal political and financial defeats. Even with almost complete amorphism and/or support from the population, which for centuries has refused to understand what is being done to it.

Therefore, even call me a dreamer, or a Russophobe, or something stronger, but it seems that Russia will again experience educational education through its own experience. Under slightly modified, but long-familiar Kremlin slogans, declarations of their own greatness and accompanying threats to the West. Where is your shoe, Nikita, my only hope is for it! It’s sad and scary, because hardly anyone will undertake to predict the consequences of this exercise both for the Russian Federation and for the rest of the world.

Photo by RIA Novosti