Chronic economy

2013: "Year of Surka" in economic development

In 2013, the Russian economy came in almost the same load of problems that hung on it and in 2012. Nothing has been done: we have lived a year lost for the country's economic development. This means that all the problems of the Russian economy become chronic in nature

2007 was a year of rapid economic growth for Russia. In 2008, along with the whole world, she plunged into the abyss of the global crisis. In 2009, he continued. In 2010, the recovery stage came ... The past 2012 was a year when this recovery was formally over-the domestic GDP reached its pre-crisis level. What is the coming, 2013?

“What does the Russian economy from Washington look like? - asked the participants of the FBK economic club Anders Oslund. - Very good!" The senior researcher at the St. Peterson International Economy Institute, a former adviser to the Russian government and several other CIS countries, immediately explained that it was behind this unexpectedly high rating: the growth of Russian GDP at the end of the year amounted to 3.6 percent, inflation does not increase (6.5 percent of the year), external debt is extremely low, and the payment balance is almost unnoticed. Even the budget of the outgoing year, adopted at one time with a shortage, in fact, as the Ministry of Finance calculated, did not become such: the income and expenses balance each other. As Oslund rightly noted, most of the European countries crushed by the recession would have dreamed of entering in 2013 with such economic results as that of Russia.

Of course, most of these results are explained very simply and quite traditional: expensive oil. The cost of a barrel in the past year, despite some fluctuations, stably kept at a high level and on average amounted to $ 109. Our deeply oil -dependent economy of this level is still enough to balance the budget (without such an expensive oil, by the way, the budget deficit would exceed 10 percent), to ensure a certain increase in GDP and at the same time not to pay in debt.

So, everything is fine in the Russian economy, and it came optimistic in 2013? Nothing like this: by 2012, the country came up with a whole pile of economic problems, some of which were caused by the consequences of the global crisis, and some were purely “homegrown”. First of all, the decisions required a pension problem: the deficit of the Pension Fund exceeded 1 trillion rubles, and all the pension expenses ate almost a third of the federal budget. The second most important problem is the total dominance of the state in the economy, which led to a sharp decrease in competition and “below the plinth” lowered the business climate in the country. Natural monopolies, state -owned banks and state corporations were in an exceptional position, despite the fact that their effectiveness, gently put it, left much to be desired. Another insoluble problem was the “defense”, into which the state promised to pump trillions, but not very worried about the question: where to get them? ..

Then, at the end of 2011-early 2012, all these problems stubbornly did not want to solve, postponing them “for later”. Many experts explained this to the acuteness of the then political moment: from December to March, the country passed through double elections. But at least two things were expected by almost everyone: pension reform and large -scale privatization of state property.

There were also “road maps” worked out by experts in various sectors and sectors of the economy, at the disposal of the government were: this referred to the already legendary “Strategy-2020”, the authors of which, by the way, were awarded high government awards. However, the volume of this “strategy”, once sent to the shelf, no one got so from there over the past year ...

Moreover, in those areas to which in the past 7-9 months the right hand was reached, the problems only aggravated. Say, instead of the expected mass privatization, we received the actual nationalization of one of the largest in the country and in the world of private oil companies-TNK-BP, which has now passed under the control of the state "Rosneft". And an attempt to change the pension system was reduced to the actual destruction of the institution of funded pension. “Gazprom”, instead of the expected “dismemberment” and reducing financial appetites, announced the investment program for 2013 at a cost of 840 billion rubles and firmly intends to lay the South Stream and Yakutia -Khabarovsk -Vladivostok gas pipelines. The same Anders Oslund considers these expenses of a state -owned company simply stolen from taxpayers with money: after all, for new branches there are no new deposits, nor new demand, nor new consumers ...

In 2013, the Russian economy came in almost the same load of problems that hung on it and in 2012. Nothing has been done: we have lived a year lost for the country's economic development. And this means that all the problems of the Russian economy become chronic.