Habitual doublethink

Serious personnel changes in the government and the presidential administration came as a surprise to almost everyone. Dmitry Medvedev was transferred from the post of head of administration to the government and became first deputy prime minister. Sergei Sobyanin came to his place, leaving the seat of governor of the Tyumen region. And Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov received deputy prime minister status. Thus, instead of the only vice-vice, which under Mikhail Fradkov until recently was Alexander Zhukov, now there will be three of them, and one of them is the “first”.

The officially stated motivation for sending Dmitry Medvedev to the government – ​​the need to have a person in the government who will lead the implementation of so-called “national projects” – does not look very convincing. The same can be said about the new status of Sergei Ivanov: to think that his only reason is better coordination of the actions of the army and the military-industrial complex and supplying the Armed Forces with exactly the weapons they need is naive. All the described problems were easily solved without this kind of movement. The main goal of the new appointments is obviously different.

The usual Russian doublethink, when the government says one thing but means something completely different, also occurs in this case. In fact, two options are possible: clearing a place for a successor and exiling possible competitors to the government, where they will no longer be so close to the direct source of power, or, conversely, bringing possible successors to the site most convenient for a start. The first assumption is less likely in light of the appointment of Sergei Sobyanin. The Kremlin administration is very wary of other figures who would be much more likely to lay claim to the position of successor. Rather, we are talking about a well-established scheme: first deputy – prime minister – president. The position of the chairman of the government, the second person in the state, is the most advantageous for promoting this or that person and bringing him to the polls. It is very likely that Dmitry Medvedev will be promoted to the post of prime minister within a year. Today he is the leader in this race of candidates. At the same time, Sergei Ivanov will be present nearby - a competing figure who has been given the opportunity to participate in the race. These are the priorities that Vladimir Putin has already outlined. This is the balance of power today. Things could still change. It's still a long way to the crossing - they may change horses.

Some experts suggest that strengthening the government and an attempt to restore the authority of the executive body, which has been considerably shaken as a result of constant bickering between the prime minister and the ministers of the economic bloc, may be aimed at preparing a “reserve airfield” for the current president. The option of his premiership after 2008 is being considered. However, Russia's transformation into a parliamentary republic, where the ruling party nominates a head of government with much broader powers than it currently has, is unlikely. To do this, the constitution would have to be changed, and its immutability is one of the main trump cards of the current government. Today's leadership is quite happy with the state of things, and no one will seriously change anything. The ruling elite, in order to stay in power for as long as possible, does not need any changes.

Moreover, even taking into account the current rearrangements, all functional figures remain in their places. This applies to both the economic bloc and the presidential administration. Alexey Kudrin will continue to create a surplus budget and increase the Stabilization Fund. German Gref - to provide liberal rhetoric, play the role of a reformer, even promote certain reforms from time to time. And Igor Sechin is to implement power-statist ideas, seize control over companies, return them to the fold of the state. Vladislav Surkov continues to manage public political life, contact parties and parliament. These are all “workhorses” who, perhaps, are not intended to occupy first places in government policy, but who perform their functional duties perfectly. The current ruling elite will most likely try to maintain the team and ensure a calm and largely formal transition of power.