Translated material
Zero readiness
In the economy
Zero readiness
February 28, 2013 Maxim Blan
On Wednesday, the Minister of Finance Anton Siluanov made a fairly alarming statement: the federal budget this year may remain without additional non -Neneftegas revenues. “Usually, in the spring session, we receive additional income, distribute them, then in the autumn session of the work of the State Duma there are also extra -incomeinal work. And this year there are concerns that such additional people may not be, because plans are very tense, ”the Minister of Finance stated, speaking at the College of the Federal Tax Service.
At first glance, there is nothing particularly alarming in “tense plans”. Well, after the departure of Kudrin, the budget without a "corporal reserve" was departed. Well, deputies will not receive in the second half of the year a pleasant opportunity to distribute in accordance with their and the presidential administration by the ideas about the beautiful ten or two (and in a good year and a hundred or two) billions of rubles. We’ll live in a century with a precisely sprinkled financial plan.
The problem, however, is that the budget may not receive the planned income. Especially non -Neneftegasis. Starting from the third quarter of last year, the Russian economy slows down quite sharply. In the last quarter, the economy grew by completely unconvincing 1.8%. In January, judging by industry, the trend continued: for the first time in a rather long time, industrial production decreased by 0.8%. And this is all against a rather calm background. Oil prices are still high. Europe, however, rolled into a recession, but continues to pay for oil regularly, as well as China, where more and more Russian energy carriers are delivered.
Meanwhile, this relative calm can be deceptive, and events run the risk of starting to develop quite rapidly, and very soon. The second wave of crisis was waiting for the whole last year. And after it never covered the world economy, many calmed down, deciding that the situation would continue to develop without any special shocks. Moreover, the main threats seem to be known, and everything necessary is done to eliminate them.
But this is not entirely true. At the end of last year, I already wrote that the problems are not solved, but are postponed, and this cannot continue endlessly. The United States is still hanging over a “budget cliff”, and the American economy is growing up the chances of collapse into it every day. Another deadline is scheduled for March 1. If by that time Obama could not convince the Republicans of their rightness, the Americans will have to find out the word “sequestration” familiar to all Russians. The consequences of this can turn out to be very sad, and with such difficulty inflated bubbles in the raw materials and stock markets are at risk of bursting - as in 2008.
But even if the United States pass the “budget cliff”, Europe remains where the risks of uncontrolled decay of the eurozone began to grow again. The reason for to put it mildly, pessimism was the results of the parliamentary elections in Italy. The population of the fourth economy of the European Union and the third largest eurozone economy very unequivocally made it clear that the regime of strict savings prescribed to overcome the debt crisis did not suit him. The Coalition of Berlusconi, opposing the reduction of state expenses and increasing taxes, and the Five Star Party comedian Beppe Grillo, who promised to hold a referendum on the advisability of the further participation of Italy in the currency union, gained 55% of the vote in total. Moreover, the main surprise was the success of Grillo, who appeared on the Italian political scene just a year ago and managed to convince a quarter of Italians to vote for their party. And if the Greeks in last year’s early parliamentary elections expressed their readiness to endure the indefinite time to endure deprivation for the sake of maintaining the euro and further receiving assistance from the EU and the IMF, then the Italians judged differently. And even if the full-scale political crisis in Italy can be avoided, this does not mean that tomorrow or a year later the Spaniards, Portuguese or Irish will not speak out, voting for supporters of an independent monetary policy. So the further existence of the euro will remain in question for a long time.
Returning to the Russian situation, it should be noted that the country's economy is not ready for a crisis worse than in early 2008, and there is practically no prospects for the prospect of withdrawal, if something goes outside, practically.