Translated material
The results of the week. The return of the pole?
The past week has become Putin’s unconditional triumph in the international arena. The more noticeable that he happened after a long series of foreign policy failures, which, it would seem, supplanted Moscow on the side of the world politics.
Not only is the laws adopted recently - NPOs, adoption, Gosizmen, prohibit the propaganda of homosexuality, poured Russia from among the countries called civilized. The fixation of the Russian leader on the threat of the “color revolution”, the paranoid confidence that all the troubles of the regime occur due to intervention by the West, turned a dialogue with developed states into tedious transfer of Russian claims. From meaningless accusations of attempts to get military superiority to complaints that Moscow is supplanted from the zone of its "privileged interests" in the CIS. At some point, Washington was tired of this, and President Barack Obama refused to conduct a summit in Moscow. The White House announced that he was pause in communication with the Kremlin. And it was a disaster: the whole Russian foreign policy was built on the denial of American approaches. As soon as the opponent disappeared, there was no one to talk with and nothing about.
And as by the wave of a magic wand, everything has decisively changed. “Obama pauses, and Putin is in the center,” writesThenew-yorktimes. “For the first time in two and a half years, the Kremlin managed to make a clever diplomatic move, offering the Obama administration, which fell into isolation, the decision of the dilemma and presented in the image of a peacekeeper and negotiator,” echoes Financial Times. There is nothing to talk about the Russian press. The most zealous claims: the world has again gained two -pole.
The Russian leader himself, forgetting about the deep contempt that he experiences in public diplomacy (“I do not look at the statements that our partners for the press. I rely on the information that appears during our personal discussions”), published an article inThenew-yorktimes. In it, he did not fail to kick Obama for the cessation of those very personal discussions that bring him so much joy. And then he read morality to the Americans, explaining how important it is to follow the UN Charter, as well as what the Kremlin is called international law. If you call a spade a spade, this comes down to the most wide interpretation of state sovereignty: the authoritarian leader is free to do with his people what he wants. Vladimir Putin also put forward a considerable number of quite reasonable arguments that military intervention in Syria will inevitably turn into even more deaths and the spread of terrorism and chaos around the world. The Russian leader forgot, however, to explain why, in fact, the reason Moscow blocked for two and a half years all attempts to put pressure on the Assad regime through international sanctions.
However, be that as it may, Vladimir Putin became a “superstar” after Sergey Lavrov proposed the transfer of Syria’s chemical weapons under international control in exchange for the USA abandonment of a military strike. Moscow very cleverly took advantage of the fact that neither Obama nor, especially, European allies of the United States, in fact, do not want to carry out military operations. And the Russian initiative makes it possible to at least postpone the decision to start the war. The decision, which, as everyone understands, leads to nowhere.
At the same time, most likely - this is only a brief respite (the fact that the Western states have so joyfully seized on the idea, alas, the horizons of their strategic planning testifies). According to Kommersant, Russian proposals are reduced to several points. Firstly, the Syrian regime joins the organization to eliminate chemical weapons. Secondly, it announces the volume of poisonous substances, as well as places of their production and storage. Thirdly, it allows international inspectors there. Fourth, agrees with the inspectors about how the chemical weapons will be destroyed.
Everything seems to be right. Only now, the implementation of these points can be stretched out of one of the contracting parties, if not for several months, if not years. Let's not forget that all inspections, as well as the selection of basic storage bases, should take place in the country covered by the civil war. And in these conditions the elimination of chemical weapons looks completely unsolvable in these conditions.
The Kremlin’s position looks win -win now. If the United States agrees (which is more than doubtful) with these proposals, then Assad will have some time to try to defeat the opposition. And Obama will turn into a target for ridicule for indecision. If Washington refuses and still ultimately strikes, then Russia will have a chance to expose the United States in aggressiveness and militarism until the end of the century. Only in this case, Russia will be doomed to return to where it has just come from. On the back of the world politics ...