Silence is golden

How are you doing? We are doing well, thank God, yesterday we had a strong earthquake and three volcanoes erupted. Then there was another severe fire in the palace and a severe flood. And that week there was a war with Caldonia. But we defeated them completely and put them all in captivity. Because the Balvons are all very brave and heroes. And all the Shvambrans are fools, hooligans, halakhs and vandals. And we want to fight with you. We, by God's grace, announce a manifesto to you in the newspaper. Come out to fight the War. We will defeat you and put you in captivity. And if you don’t go to war, then you are cowards, like girls. And we despise you. You are fools." Lev Kassil "Conduit and Schwambrania".

I assure you that something is definitely wrong with Munich. It's just some damn place. And quite a long time ago. In 1923, this city experienced the Beer Hall Putsch, which marked the beginning of Hitler's political career. Almost 15 years later, the British, French and Italians surrendered Czechoslovakia to the Fuhrer. In 1972, at the Munich Olympics, Palestinian terrorists from the Black September group killed 11 Israelis...

After this there came a 35-year break. Vladimir Putin violated it with his

, publicly slapping President Bush on the cheeks under the guise of the frankness of a faithful comrade.

President Putin's fury in Munich reminded me of

Richard Cheney in Vilnius on May 4, 2006. The only difference is that the US Vice President spoke in Lithuania, and in Munich the answer to Washington came from the lips of the Russian leader. If Vladimir Putin asked, for example, Sergei Ivanov to voice his claims, it is unlikely that these statements would be worthy of a lengthy discussion.

Let me explain: by giving Cheney the opportunity to speak out in Vilnius, the US President removed himself from direct reproaches from the Russian leadership by transferring all conversations with the Kremlin into the non-public sphere.

After the speech of the US Vice President, no one in Washington and Moscow could understand for a long time what the discontent of Cheney, who was not kicked in Russia only by the lazy, would result in, for the harshness of his speech in Vilnius.

Like me earlier

, the speech of the US Vice President did not lead to any real changes in the “Russian” policy of the White House. No one ever informs their opponent-partner about plans to fight him.

Having received a warning from Cheney, Russia obtained consent from the White House to negotiate with Tehran and signed the long-awaited protocol on accession to the WTO with Washington.

It looks like my cursed Munich may well change the situation this time. Vladimir Putin, with his harsh speech, disturbed the White House more seriously than the Decembrists who woke the sleepy Herzen from his bed.

The Russian President has washed out the dirty laundry of Russian-American relations, making at least two significant foreign policy mistakes.

Firstly, Putin’s statement will inevitably lead to the victory of that camp in the administration that advocates toughening relations with the Kremlin. Strange as it may sound, many Democrats will also join him, and at the mere mention of this part of the White House, they shake not much less than San Francisco during the terrible earthquake of 1906. The consequences of a quiet unification of political opponents with the administration do not bode well for the Kremlin.

Secondly, the Kremlin’s relatively effective policy aimed at separating EU countries from each other and from the United States can be put to rest. With all the current disagreements with Washington, Putin’s speech became that cold shower for European leaders, under which they put less sane clients in the sobering-up station.

However, one should not count on external signs of worsening relations between the United States or Europe and Russia. George Bush's calm response to Vladimir Putin at a White House press conference last Thursday clearly showed his lack of desire for public conflict.

The US President's reaction shows that he puts himself and his country above a scandal in the communal political kitchen. And, besides, George Bush most likely expects to gain time to make changes to his administration’s “Russian policy” concept.

In my opinion, Putin’s public announcement of a list of grievances against Washington, in contrast to Bush’s silence, only indicates that the Russian president decided to go for broke. Whether he wanted to calm the alarmed security officials in the Kremlin or cheer up Russia’s friends in the Arab world, Iran and Venezuela, I don’t know.

If the Kremlin's goal was to scare the White House, it was unlikely to succeed. As you know, the one who screams at the top of his voice is either wrong or straining his ligaments from helplessness. It is possible that in this case both options take place.

The attempt of the leader of a large country to translate the foreign policy conversation into the plane of the little heroes of Mikhail Zoshchenko (“Yolka”): “If you, Lelishcha, ate the second lozenge, then I (Minka) will bite off this apple again,” only means that he understands what place in this world both he and, thanks to him, the country occupy a place. Although he carefully tries to hide this knowledge from others...