Translated material
Won't happen again
Recently, it has become fashionable in narrow circles to predict a new war between Russia and Georgia. Of course, this is exactly the case - Russia ATTACKS Georgia. And nothing else.
Various authors write about this - Illarionov, Piontkovsky, Latynina and others.
They explain how bad Putin is and what a suicidal adventure it would be for Russia. But they don’t explain - WHY? Why does Russia, Putin, Medvedev, anyone, need to take this very adventure? I haven’t read ANY clear explanation (maybe I missed something, of course).
At one time I absolutely confidently predicted that there would be no Caucasian war. Then many laughed at such a prophecy. In fact, all my (and not “my”, but SELF-OBVIOUS) predictions came true to perfection.
I wrote that such a war would be an infrequent case of OUTSTANDING STUPIDITY FOR ALL SIDES. Which, naturally, happened. True, the mistake was that he a) underestimated the “Kokoity factor” and b) overestimated the ability of various bosses in Moscow and Tbilisi to count one (only one!) step ahead.
OK.
But now WHY?
Let's consider the FIRST option, which for some unknown reason is presented as the “ONLY POSSIBLE” option.
Russia invades Georgia.
Well, let’s say a blitzkrieg, a minimum of losses in manpower, “our Cossacks are driving, driving through Tbilisi.” Georgia is occupied one way or another, Giorgadze (or another tame Georgian) appears from Russia, it’s not a problem to find a bunch of the same ones at the Tbilisi bazaar. Georgia is becoming “friendly” to the Russian budget.
FOR WHAT?
The consequences are today! — ABSOLUTELY OBVIOUS TO EVERYONE.
In the midst of an economic crisis, Russia is a rogue country. There are no loans to be seen either in the West or in the East.
The presidential elections in Ukraine (January 2010) were automatically won by the candidate who would demand IMMEDIATE PROTECTION FROM AN INSANE RUSSIA and demand IMMEDIATE ENTRY into NATO.
Lukashenko's hesitation ends: hat in hand - to NATO!
In a softer form, all our “allies” in the SCO, CSTO, etc. will argue in exactly the same way - they simply CAN’T REASON OTHERWISE. That is, all these CIS-SCO-CSTO are finished off and plowed completely by our tank tracks.
A special joy is Türkiye. Georgia, as you know, borders on it. Will the Turks be very happy if they thus “border” from now on with an AGGRESSIVELY EXPANDING Russia?
What about Türkiye... For the whole world, Russia is finally becoming an aggressor country, with absolutely irrational and unpredictable behavior. If no one recognized South Ossetia and Abkhazia, then the Russian Federation is taking a powerful step to equalize its actual status with them.
In general, it is simply IMPOSSIBLE to come up with something WORSE for Russia. (No suppression of freedoms, even arrests, or even, excuse me, executions of “dissenters” would be remotely comparable - “internal affairs” are one thing, and obvious international aggression is quite another.)
Finally, the war in Transcaucasia, having such luxurious rear areas in the North Caucasus, is another smart move.
These are losses.
What's the profit?
Saakashvili? Well, if “I have such personal hostility towards the victim,” they could organize an attempt on his life, say. Moreover, he has enough enemies in Georgia itself - go prove who shot whom. It is still easier to kill one person than an entire country.
What else?
Patriotic upsurge in Russia? Let's say - at first. Although the rise was very short-lived (just as it was short-lived after that war). Many will be, to put it mildly, unhappy... (this is all in the ideal case - if the blitzkrieg succeeds). But the main thing is, well, the rise... And what to do with it? Put it in your pocket? In a crisis, a collapse on the Russian stock exchange, a fall in the ruble (more than likely in such a situation!) will interest people in Russia much more than Saakashvili’s scalp.
Yes, and I doubt about the rise. During the last war, people one way or another accepted the version of “defense of South Ossetia.” And this time - what to sell them? The same version? How then can we explain the occupation, albeit temporary, of Georgia?
The population of Russia is not the population of Germany-38. PURE WARS OF ADVANCE in Russia will inspire very few people.
By the way, about Georgia... Of course, I don’t believe in “guerrilla warfare”. But I believe that they will have to be fed and watered. They didn’t conquer for nothing... It wasn’t for nothing, that’s for sure. We feed the North Caucasus - well, we’ll feed the Transcaucasus... But just - from what reserves will we feed?
They say that in this case Russia will rip out the throat of the Nabucco gas pipeline. Maybe. But Russia will surely tear the throat of the Northern and Southern Streams in this manner.
One thing needs to be clearly understood.
It is no longer just a war with a foreign state, but its CAPTURE using the method of seizing the Baltic states in 1940 or the same Georgia in 1921 - this is truly a “reset”. A CAPITAL RESET of relations with Russia - both in the West and in the East. “We don’t need this kind of hockey” - neither in Europe, nor in China, nor in the Middle East (Iran will finally understand why it needs missiles, for PROTECTION from whom...).
So, I repeat, it’s simply impossible to think of ANYTHING worse for Russia. And all the profit... Well, if you cut your own throat, there is also profit - you don’t have to shave anymore. “Happy is he who falls headfirst: the world before him, at least for a moment, is different.”
So Putin/Medvedev don’t understand this?
How strange...
If they are so slow-witted and aggressive - so as not to occupy Kyrgyzstan (they cheated with the base!), not to declare the “independence of Crimea” (at least this would be popular in Russia!), not to supply nuclear weapons to Iran - then the Americans will jump goats... And most importantly: why wasn’t GEORGIA OCCUPIED a year ago?! Out of the heat, so to speak...
You see, if we consider the leaders of Russia to be madmen with suicidal tendencies, then it is true that a Russian war against Georgia with the aim of occupying it is very likely. But, as Sherlock Holmes said, “it is difficult to imagine the devil with such narrowly local power!” If we are to pursue an aggressive imperialist policy, then it will be along the entire perimeter, and not just with God damned Saakashvili...
“But there was a war a year ago - or will you deny that too?”
I won't.
But, firstly, then again there was a war “for the salvation of South Ossetia.” At least, war with such an excuse. She's gone now.
Secondly, then there was a “REVERSE CRISIS”, the feeling “I can do anything”, “the Russians are coming!”, what else could I do that would blow my nose?! Now, as we know, “the drive has gone to waste.” The need for expansion - be it in Courchevel or Tbilisi - has greatly diminished.
Thirdly, within a year it became clear that Russia did not receive a SINGLE BENEFIT from this victory. Lesson!
A second war against Georgia (which certainly cannot be attributed to the border conflict in South Ossetia) would be a clear act of INTERNATIONAL ROBBERY. This is not a “whim”, not “Saakashvili’s revenge” and other CHILDREN’S nonsense... Within the framework of ordinary, human logic, it is UNEXPLAINABLE. This does not mean that such a war is IMPOSSIBLE IN PRINCIPLE. Possible! But in one and only version: as a SYSTEMIC action, i.e. not isolated, but rigidly arising from a COMPLETELY DEFINITE IDEOLOGY. IDEOLOGIES OF EFFECTIVE IMPERIAL REVENGE. This kind of chatter happens in Russia - and even then not from the top management. But there is no such IDEOLOGY, and an IDEOLOGY OF ACTION, in Russia. Just as in Russia there is no fascism, no Nazism, or any other state “ism” except bureaucracy and indifference.
Perhaps those who with manic persistence predict this war believe that in Russia EXACTLY SUCH A REGIME. I don't think so. I believe that there is no such regime in Russia - therefore, there will not be SUCH a war. And another war is no longer possible.
Total.
War as an ATTACK of the Russian Federation on Georgia, in my opinion, is complete absurdity. “This is some kind of absurdity,” as Gorbachev would say.
Option two. The knight in tiger skin will attack the Russian bear.
Unlike true Democrats, I consider this option no less likely than the Bear’s attack on Vityaz. But not more likely!
Why the hell does Saakashvili need this?
Well, winning the war is obviously unthinkable...
So, what remains? A brief provocation on the border, the Russians invade, a cry to the whole world “Save! Aggressor!".
Something similar happened a year ago - so what?
The Russians actually stopped.
But a) Saakashvili’s reputation is damaged - not much less than Putin’s, b) except for a group of fans in Moscow, strong doubts are being expressed throughout the rest of the world about the purity and sanctity of Saakashvili and his intentions, c) opposition is raging in Georgia. The opposition - I agree, I wrote about it myself - is stupid, powerless, and has never learned Prof.’s aphorism. Ioseliani “Democracy is not your thing!”
So. The opposition is worthless, that's right.
Therefore, power remained with the “stricken president.” But the power was STRONGLY BROKEN. What is the point of Saakashvili breaking down the chair under him?
I don't see the point. Selling the second “half-defeat” (the maximum he can dream of) for Victory?! No matter how naive Georgians are, I think this trick will not work.
War for Saakashvili means the same (even greater!) defeat as for the Russian Federation.
Finally, the third factor, which was a year ago - Kokoity and Co.
But now these gentlemen a) have achieved what they wanted, and they have no reason to start over again, b) they are really tired of Moscow! And no one in the Kremlin will want to help their pranks a second time.
Moral: THERE WILL BE NO WAR, because... there is no one to fight. Nobody needs this crap (war) today.
PS And what Saakashvili is doing before Biden’s arrival is driving a wave, raising his price – this is a trade matter...
Text edited by the author 07/07/2009, 11.35