In the Kremlin

Transit (16)

May 1, 2008 George Satarov

I believe that readers were able to relax from my articles from the Transit series, but, I admit, amusing myself that someone was missing them. Everything, the pause dragged on, and I continue. More precisely, I finish: in addition to this, there are three or four articles.

But before moving on, I will not miss the opportunity to boast. The pause indicated above was filled with various small (one -time) events that together reinforced empirically my previous speculative constructions. Here are a few examples.

The constant symbolic humiliations of the “newly elected president” are striking, as they are now ridiculous. Apotheosis was the Congress of United Russia. All this is possible, because both sides (humiliated and humiliating) are well aware of who and how he was elected, and that voters have nothing to do with this “election”. These humiliations are a trivial consequence of trap No. 1: “Lack of a base of legitimacy” (see “Transit-10” ). They would be unthinkable in a normal political system, where the humiliation of the chosen is humiliation of voters; And real voters would never allow the humiliation of their chosen one. Another thing is Russia. On the one hand, humiliating Medvedev, Putin and his dreams sign in the illegitimacy of elections, the illegitimacy of the “chosen president”. On the other hand, voters who voted at Medvedev calmly endure the humiliation of their chosen one, which can be considered both as additional humiliation and as a manifestation of the attitude of voters to the elections and their voices.

The second example is associated with trap No. 4: “Personal Union system” (“ Transit-14 ”). A special case of a personal union is an agreement between the cartridge and the clientele (you are my support, and I - access to resources). In this case, the cartridge is Putin, and the clientele, coquettishly calling himself a party, is “United Russia”. The latter seeks to get out of the system of informal backstage agreements, which, in particular, prompted her to make her connection with Putin Public. The funny thing is that this does not give her any guarantees. Putin will “throw” them at any moment (I think that this year), and Medvedev will not forget his humiliation at the congress, and will not forgive.

However, this is all - the problems of a relatively small bunch of bureaucrats with party tickets and insatiable greed. But all of us will come to another problem. Imagine an unprecedentedly ineffective and corrupt Putin “vertical”. The appearance of two centers will plunge it into a state of stupor. But no less shock will be in the network of “Personal Union”. Previously, at least it was clear: where and for what to “carry”. And now?! What is this?! And there, and here!? For any reason!? Come on, let's not be upset for them. They have enough money. But we must remember that, in the end, ordinary citizens pay for all bribes: after all, part of the price of milk, bread, boots, sausages, beer and everything else are these same bribes.

But all. Let's move on.

I remind us that we have to answer three questions that determine the near future of the power elite, which, in turn, affects the choice of the script by which the country will roll, and therefore, ultimately, on our life. Questions are:

7. What can consensus be achieved on?

8. Can Medvedev involve radically dissatisfied?

9. Whose will take?

The first two issues are interconnected insofar as you need to negotiate with radically dissatisfied, and an agreement may provide for a particular form of involvement.

I will continue to proceed from the assumption that the starting stage of Medvedev’s presidency will be similar to a return in 2000 with a thaw of such a return (counted, of course, from the current lawlessness) and an increase in dangers for those who have the reason to feel the presence of dangers that can appear, for example, due to improving the work of the legal system. I wrote about this script in the article " Transit-12 ". I also wrote about the final failure of this attempt, which is confirmed, in particular, the collapse of the previous one.

But those who have reason to fear, do not care about this historical experience: “collapse, he is Evon when he will be, and troubles can be shaking much earlier” is a very reasonable consideration. Therefore, sabotage and direct opposition are going on now. Inauguration has not yet been, the plan has not yet been put into effect, and propaedeutic and protective measures have already begun. Here are the undercover contractions for property, and lingering, and the division of places behind the back of the future president and prime minister, and aggressive attacks on the opposition representatives. And the celebration of Sybiosis of United Russia with the future prime minister has a distinct protective goal (besides the rest, of course).

Now let's think about this: Medvedev will have to bargain with those who are difficult to surprise with handouts. They have both power and wealth. But this is what they definitely do not have, it is calm. Both power and these property are illegitimate. Their owners know about this better than others. True, their fear, constantly accompanied by victories and holidays broadcast through state channels, is combined with self -hypnosis by the formula: "Everything is grasped ... everything is controlled ... The legs and arms are poured with a warm lead ...". Such self -hypnosis is overcome only by awakening, and it is possible under external influence, under the influence of a new fear, the source of which is not in itself, but outside.

The consequences of additional fear are more important for us than its sources. Nevertheless, let's try to imagine them. Let's try to evaluate which of the conceivable (for example, already tested by our elite) of fear of fear could become a reality in the near future.

Firstly, Medvedev himself, the policy of his team, can be such a source of fear. The trigger may be some demonstrative arrests of corrupt officials, inquisitive police officers, and falsifier prosecutors. But such actions are possible only if they are appropriately insured. After all, Medvedev as a source of fear is understandable, localized and accessible, therefore there is a temptation to eliminate it. Especially if the acting remains familiar, comfortable, controlled, beloved Putin. So, we must make it clear that elimination will not help. This is possible with another premiere, more strong and decisive than the president who can take the place of the eliminated. Another option is a strong anti -corruption department, which is directly subordinate to the president, terrifying corrupt officials. Alas, both are unrealistic. So this source of fear is unrealistic.

Secondly, the memory of the second source of fear is still fresh, which covered the top of the Putin vertical in the fall of 2004 after the terrorist attack in Beslan. Then the court political scientists did not hesitate to sincerely admit: "The regime would not transfer another major terrorist attack ...". The fear was so great that they, not offended by common sense, started an attack on democracy under the slogan of the fight against terrorism: the elections of governors were canceled and crazy election legislation was introduced, these elections, practically canceled. In fact, the whole complex of measures was then directed not against terror (and why!? After all, citizens, not representatives of the authorities, die from it ...), but against its consequences, which can be really dangerous for the authorities. Our story knows another similar example. Seventy years ago, another dictator - his nickname was “Stalin” - realized that the country was not ready for war. Then all his efforts were abandoned to fight the dangerous consequences of this: the whole talented top of the army was destroyed. Those who could be the first to present him for military failures were shot or sent to the Gulag if the war suddenly began. The mediocre, immoral, controlled remained (with rare exceptions). Stalin, as always, turned out to be wise. And the war began, and the failures, to put it mildly, followed, and there was a victory. Only in the country did the people decreased in such quantities as if both armies fought against it - both the invaders and the defenders.

Be that as it may, but this regime was lucky not only with oil prices, but also with terrorist attacks (may they forgive me for the cynicism of this observation). They took place very on time when the regime was supposed to be affirmed (in 1999), and did not occur very much in time when their appearance became critical for him (after Beslan). In the spring of 2005, a small project was implemented in the Indem on the analysis of possible political scenarios. During the project, experts evaluated the chances of new large terrorist attacks as very high. However, it carried. Either lucky, or saves the abolition of the elections of governors, or special services worked correctly. I am not a specialist in this area to give it explanations. But I do not see that it can change significantly in this area for the year. Therefore, I conclude: terrorist attacks can become a source of fear in the near future only with a very low probability.

The next fear that Putin's Falcon survived, rolled on them at the junction of 2004 and 2005. The boorish restriction of laws, according to which the state was tired of paying citizens issued for “monetization of benefits”, led to the streets of the dissatisfied. And this will be “third” in our list.

The fear was so great that they began to part with the most native, blood, one might say - with oil money. Then the pensioners managed to calm down a certain increase in the money. The unrest drove. But the consequences of that failed “reform” are still, say, in the field of supplying needy medicines.

So, our “thirdly” is a fear of social unrest. Here they are quite real. The catastrophic position with medicines is not the only bright legacy of the “slave, gallery” of Putin. The results of his acts in the social sphere are already summarized by specialists. They are not rainbow if you show condescension and express themselves delicately. It is clear that I am not talking about the amount of oil money absorbed by the country and allowing you to stay afloat so far. I am talking about many unresolved problems in the social sphere - from housing and communal services to medicine - the solution of which became even more problematic when, instead of serious institutional reforms, they began to distribute the same money using “national projects”. Against the backdrop of a frozen, hardened, ineffective social morphology, new problems are rolling into the country.

Is it not true, you can see some sacred meaning in this? The same increase in hydrocarbons that overwhelmed Russia with money contributed to the rise in price of food prices around the world and now hit Russian citizens. Absurd theater: in a country that earns frantic money, cards, coupons, stamps and other crap on the most necessary food products are introduced. Moreover, various regions are concerned separately. This means that the federal government is not concerned about anything. Is it possible to find the best proof of administrative and intellectual powerlessness? But the crisis is just beginning ... The conclusion suggests itself inexorably: social tension can be likely to become a source of fear in the near future.

Author - President of the Indem Foundation

To be continued