Why does Lukashenko catch the enemies of the people?

Alexander Lukashenko at first glance behaves very strangely. All sociological services will prophesy him victory in the presidential election, and he took up fishing for political saboteurs from among opposition and foreign diplomats. It would seem that the Old Man is clearly overcurrent the stick, fearing the "color" revolution in her country. Maybe he is disturbed by vain phobias and an election search for agents - rather, from the field of psychiatry than real politics?

However, Lukashenko, who has been ruled by his country for more than ten years, is not at all a irrational subject. On the contrary, only a cold and correct calculation, hiding behind external extravagance, allows him to rule the European people for so long with an iron hand, and not some kind of African tribe.

What is the Belarusian president fearing? The answer is simple - the second round of elections.

Lukashenko really continues to remain popular. However, the big question is whether it is enough to win in the first round. If you hold the elections, at least some corresponding to European standards, then the second round is not excluded. Now imagine that the “great and terrible” instead of the expected grand victory will only receive an ambiguous first place in the preliminary race on the eve of the final.

But before the finale, anything can happen. For example, officials who are now tenderly serving Lukashenko will begin to quickly distance themselves from the regime. Obigating voters will pay close attention to the opposition candidate, whom they now do not take into account, simply not imagining that someone else can rule the country except the Old Man. Voters of Lukashenko will be confused and partially demoralized. The West will increase pressure on the Belarusian authorities, demanding compliance with democratic norms during the second round. The security forces are doubted - this was already in Serbia, Georgia, Ukraine, countries where "color revolutions" just won.

Is it not true, the script is believable and extremely uncomfortable for Lukashenko? Therefore, everything possible and impossible will be done so that the Belarusian president in the first round receives the percentage of votes necessary for victory, and with a large margin. But what happens if the opposition does not recognize the declared voting results and requires the second round? For this, he mobilizes his supporters from the middle class, intelligentsia and youth, who are many in Minsk (Lukashenko’s supporters live in small cities and in the village, and, as you know, the fate of the country at a turning point in history is decided in the capital).

There is a sustainable opinion that the opposition in Lukashenkov’s Belarus is weak and helpless. But this statement is not indisputable - on the day of the Prlukashenkovsky “People’s Assembly”, the opponents of the Old Man brought three thousand people to an unauthorized rally. Of course, if the bets grow and at least some chance of victory appears, there will be much more manifestants.

They say that the opposition candidate Alexander Milinkevich is too intelligent and incapable of street struggle. But recall Vaclav Gavel, which Milinkevich is largely guided in his activities. Or a little known Professor Koshtunits, who replaced in power, seemed to be the invincible Milosevich.

So if the “color revolution” in Belarus will take place, then it can pass under the slogan of recounting votes and the second round, and not recognizing the victory of the opposition candidate “here and now”. And there is a personnel basis for this revolution in the country - another thing is how local opposition will be able to use this and other resources at their disposal.

Having promoted the “agent” scandal, Lukashenko seeks to prevent such a development of events. Firstly, he discredits the opposition in the eyes of voters, turning it into an enemy of the people, foreign mercenaries, and himself-in the defender of national interests from encroachments from the insidious conspirators. And if so, then, on the one hand, it is possible to apply any, hard measures themselves to such subjects, and on the other hand, it is not only not worth it, but it is simply dangerous to go out.

Secondly, Lukashenko deliberately undermines the trust in any alternative votes, presenting some documents to the public, from which it follows that Western sociologists have already awarded the victory of Milinkevich in advance. Any specialist, at least, will be skeptical of such “finds” of the Belarusian KGB. Well, it will not be a respectable Gallup to compile fake “eccits”, claiming that Milinkevich laid Lukashenko on the shoulder blades in the first round. Reputation is more expensive than any political sympathies or antipathy. However, viewers who present visual evidence of attaches do not think about this. Their ancestors believed that the old Bolsheviks, turning into the enemies of the people, poisoned cattle and let the trains in peacetime in peacetime in their own country.

Thirdly, unwinding the scandal, Lukashenko even more “ties” the power structures that are to one degree or another involved in a large-scale special operation directed against opposition forces. Now the victory of the opposition is even more dangerous for the future security forces.

So Lukashenko dealt a preventive blow to the opposition at the moment when she was only preparing for the decisive battle. And now it depends on the oppositionists themselves whether they can win this game without rules or Lukashenko will be able to extend their stay in power. To extend, but not perpetuating - because not just an authoritarian, but closed on one person (without any likeness of the succession scenario), the regime in modern Europe is so archaic that sooner or later it will come to its logical final. Which may not be “velvet”.