Candidate Navalny

For several days already in the press and blogs they have been discussing the “nomination” of Alexei Navalny to the president. It looks pretty comical, because in general, there was no nomination. Supplying to answer the question of the brothers Dzyadko on the air of the rain, Navalny only confirmed the presence of his presidential ambitions. Actually, there is no news in this statement - Navalny spoke about the readiness to claim the Higher State post in December 2011. But the society has a surprisingly short information memory, so now his words were perceived as if he had to start collecting signatures tomorrow and carry them to the CEC.

At the same time, the overall context of the conversation on Rain testifies that Navalny perfectly understands: in the current conditions he has no chance to officially claim the presidential chair. However, neither a single independent politician or public figure does not have such an opportunity.

The political system built in Russia is essentially a regime of personal power of Vladimir Putin. It undoubtedly retains external attributes of democracy, but there has long been real content behind these scenery. The manual control regime is also manifested in the admission of candidates for elections of different levels of power. In the regional and municipal elections, independent candidates have a minimum chance to break through the administrative barricades and achieve registration. But at the federal level, the screening of unusual candidates is much tougher.

Without a doubt, it can be argued that the opposition that was not indifferent to Vladimir Putin does not have a single chance to become a presidential candidate. In fact, the system works in such a way that Putin himself chooses a sparring partner and forms their list based on his own campaign strategy. In the latest elections, for example, the grassy, ​​in general, Grigory Yavlinsky was removed from the elections, because it was decided to let Mikhail Prokhorov on his electoral field.

The requirements for the registration of a candidate for the presidential election (with the exception of representatives of parliamentary parties) are absolutely dragon in nature. It is easier to fly to the moon than to overcome the Churovsky barrier barrier if your candidacy is not agreed in the Kremlin. It is important, no one and how collects signatures for registration. It is important how they will be checked in the Central Election Commission. Who in 2008 believed that the curly clown Bogdanov actually collected 2 million signatures in his support? But a similar ridiculous contender was needed by the authorities for a beautiful election picture. And Churov handed him a candidate’s certificate with a smile, instead of submitting to the prosecutor’s office for falsification of electoral documents.

In the case of Navalny, most likely, the case will not reach the collection of signatures: the authorities are insured already on distant approaches. It is hard to believe that at least one of the many criminal cases initiated against the opposition will not end in an accusatory sentence. And that means a point. Even if a person receives a conditional criminal record under an average or difficult article, the legislation directly prohibits him to participate in the elections.

The removal of the opposition from the legal political process, the criminalization of his biography undoubtedly pursue the main goal - to exclude even the theoretical situation when Putin and Navalny could become official competitors in the elections.

After Navalny’s words on the “rain” about the desire to lead the country, representatives of United Russia together accused him of trying to politicize the upcoming trial in Kirov, where Navalny was accused of theft of forest. On the one hand, these words of the opposition on the eve of the court really raise bets. He placed accents in time and will go to the bench of the defendants precisely as an opponent of Vladimir Putin. But, on the other hand, and without this statement, the situation would be ultimately clear: I’m sure that even the stupid united Russia has no illusions that Navalny would not judge the forest, but for the attack on power and “swinging the boat”.

Many political technologists supporting power in non -public conversations recognize this. And they insist that the authorities acts rationally, imposing on the bulk by criminal cases. Thus, in their opinion, several tasks are solved at once: the opponent is forced to defend himself, and not to attack, the lion's share of his resources goes to the maintenance of lawyers, the political discussion shifts the investigator’s office, supporters and sponsors are afraid to deal with a potential prisoner so as not to fall under the distribution ...

However, these political technologists, it seems to me, are not able to look at the situation wider and do not see a key problem - consistent delegitimization of power. The obvious political processes and the inability of the parliamentary parties at least at least be portraying the opposition again convinces an increasing number of citizens that these guys are in the Kremlin not by the will of the people, but only because they managed to usurp power. Yes, illegitimate power can last a long time if it retains material resources and loyalty to the security forces. But still, the stock of her strength is exhausted.

And yet, does Alexei Navalny have a chance to seriously claim the highest state post?

Such a chance may appear in two cases. Or the authorities will begin to pour as a result of a coup like the Portuguese "Revolution of the Carnation" of 1975. Or the system will fall apart as a result of mass protests, which can be provoked by both political and social causes. At the breakdown of the regime, there will be a need for a leader, the reputation and authority of which correspond to the biography and political path of Navalny.

Both options today do not look realistic. But the story teaches us that the seemingly realistic forecasts tomorrow can be perceived as a joke against the backdrop of rapidly developing political processes.

Photo by hedgehog / Maria Olendskaya