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Ukraine: “Blow” in the opposition?

October 3, 2012 Inna Bulkina

A month before the parliamentary elections, the situation with the passage of parties to the Ukrainian Room has more or less determined, and in general it differs little from starting forecasts. Four parties will be guaranteed to be guaranteed to the new parliament: the current party in power (Party of Regions), the United Opposition (“For the Fatherland”), the Party of Vitaly Klitschko and the Communists of Peter Simonenko. Viktor Yushchenko, frankly technological "Ukraine - forward!" Natalia Korolevskaya does not get 2% to the passing 5 percent barrier, the “freedom” of Oleg Tyagnibok, according to various sources, receives from 3 to 4% and remains overboard.

Nevertheless, in recent weeks, the usual and predictable picture of party ratings has become significantly “foony”, political scientists and journalists spoke about the “custom scandal”, and sociologists became violators of calm. The intrigue is not connected with the leader of the race: the Party of Regions, not to say confidently, but holds the championship with 20-22% of the vote, and in this sociologists are relatively united. But the opposition rating for some time has ranged from 20% to 13%, which is already beyond the permissible error, and it’s just right to talk about the “sociological engagement”. But the main surprise was presented by the “boxing” party, which unexpectedly ahead of the “united opposition” and allegedly reached second place with 14 percent. In other words, according to the surveys of the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KMIS) and the magazine “Social Studies”, the party Vitaly Klichko was equal to the rating and even by 1% circled the United Forces of Yulia Tymoshenko and Arsenia Yatsenyuk.

How probably is it and what is behind it?

Even if you leave “custom -made manipulations” and “paid falsifications” behind the brackets, the summary graphs of the four main sociological services, which are quoted in the last issue of the Ukrainian Forbes, really indicate that the curved oppositions are at best and show a fall rather than growth. Meanwhile, the personal rating of Vitaly Klitschko obviously grew after a recent victory over Manuel Charr. The head of the same KMIS Valery Khmelko calls to relate to this trend with caution: “A survey of 75% of people who got into the sample took place after September 9, when the last boxing match Klitschko, in which he won. This entailed a serious increase in his support among men - it is 17%, while among women the rating of this party is 11%. ” Sociologists from the center of Uchumkov believe that when the victorious euphoria passes, the success curve of the boxing party will decline - in August, according to the Razumkov Center, the rating of the “blow” was no more than 11%.

Most likely, it will be so by mid -October, the picture is “tired”, but political analysts were seriously talking about the activation of manipulative technologies, about “pushing the foreheads” of two parties that could compete with the “regions”, and about the likely provocation: in the end, if opponents of the current leader are not struggled not with the party in power, but with each other, it is not difficult to guess who it turns out to be in winnings.

In the meantime, the “blow” and the opposition party Yatsenyuk and Tymoshenko play on one field, conduct a positional struggle on the “majority” and try to share the electorate that in no case will vote for the current government. And if the growth of the rating of a champion boxer is partly situational and transient, then the fall in the popularity of the opposition is a real problem. With the mild, to put it mildly, charisma Arseniy Yatsenyuk, no miracles occurred, however, Yatsenyuk’s ratings with an amazing sequence show the same “reverse dynamics” as in the last presidential election: at the beginning of the marathon they are on the top, closer to the end “fall into the abyss”. Yulia Tymoshenko is desperately fighting for the presence in the media and clings to any information -breeding industry, but it seems that the Ukrainians had a fertilized series and it is easier for them to believe in the victory of the boxer, rather than the miraculous return of the Kachanovsky prisoner.

Photo by RIA Novosti