Translated material
Putin is like dejavu
In the Kremlin
Putin is like dejavu
November 20, 2012 George Satarov
Whatever the day, the information space covers with a wave of new messages about corruption exposures in different corners of the country and in different departments. Society in bewilderment, elites in confusion. The loyal press beats in an enthusiastic hysteria. What does all this mean?
A little recent story. Andropov - the forerunner of the last Secretary General of the Central Committee of the CPSU, before that the many years of the KGB - did not reign for long, but managed to do a lot. It was he who brought Mikhail Gorbachev on the road to the Soviet throne, who was accused of the fact that the comrade -in -arms of Andropov Putin called "the greatest geopolitical disaster of the 20th century."
But the decisive contribution to the Putin tragedy was also made by Andropov. It was under him that the fight against corrupt officials in the USSR began (I emphasize - not with corruption, but with corrupt officials), and high -ranking, up to the leaders of the Union republics within the USSR. I have no doubt that Yuri Vladimirovich was driven by noble intentions. But the point is not in them, but in the consequences.
It is known that one of the cementing grounds for the stability of empires is an informal agreement of elites. Its essence is as follows: the elites of the metropolis provide the elites of the colonies with a stable position and protection, and the latter provide the metropolis of the loyalty of subordinate territories. Violation of the elite agreement is one of the decisive factors of the collapse of the empire, more precisely - the lack of obstacles to decay, when the metropolis weakens.
Russian sociologists at the beginning of the 20th century wrote: corruption is used by the royal regime as a means of ensuring loyalty to power by the bureaucracy. Corruption was, and there was loyalty, but this did not save the monarchy from collapse, but the empire from the first phase of the collapse. The same thing happened with the Soviet regime, as with any decrepit and decaying - again corruption was used in times of stagnation as a means of supporting loyalty. And this is important, because it was part of that informal agreement of the elites, which I said above as a general phenomenon.
So, when Andropov began a decisive and public struggle with corrupt officials, this was perceived in the Union republics as a unilateral termination of the elite agreement. Indeed: “How is it!? It was possible before, but now it is impossible!? Why is it suddenly!? ” They hid and waited for the moment, and he did not slow to form. As soon as the union power weakened and staggered, they burst to the sides.
"What does Putin have to do with it?" - may ask the other reader. “The author is really sure that Putin is sincerely outraged by the presumptuous corrupt officials!?” - the reader will continue, already slightly mocking. No, of course! Moreover, I am convinced of the nasty. In that strange virtual vertical vertical, eagerly hanging over our country, the universal principle of personnel selection applies: “It is compromised, then we are managed.” They, at the top of this rotten vertical, are sincerely convinced that the corrupt subordinate has three important virtues. First: he is loyal, for he is allowed to steal from above (here it is - deja vu No. 1). Second: he is managing, for the criminal, but wants to remain free. Third: at any time he can be thrown out of the feeder vertical on completely legal and respectable grounds.
I remembered Andropov for several reasons. The first is that, it seems to me, Putin would like to identify himself with such a titan, according to his assessment as Andropov. The court television already frantically shouts about Putin’s new era - a fighter with corruption. I believe that we will soon hear about comparison with Andropov from the court lyzobes. We will try to convince us with such a comparison of the determination of the intentions of our current titanium. The second reason is that Putin is just another of the unlucky Russian rulers that fled and run by gusk along the rake of sculpture with the help of corruption; He runs evenly, breathing in the back of Andropov. I will say about the third reason below.
Meanwhile, there is no fight against corruption. Even an illiterate Russian leadership is aware that the fight against corruption is, first of all, to improve the work of state institutions. They destroyed them for twelve years.
What is the meaning of the current selective collision to corrupt officials will become clear if you look back a little again. Putin systematically used imitation of the fight against corruption, solving various problems. In 2000 The legend of the fight against corruption covered an operation to displace the heads of the regions from the Federation Council, and then the introduction of a new feeder for officials in the form of federal districts. On the eve of the 2004 presidential election. The finger began on the regional headquarters, deputies of governors were accused of corruption. The wave later subsided, but the governors understood everything and neatly lined up with the presidential stirdon in their readiness to provide the desired result in the elections. It is important to emphasize that the federal authorities did not touch the first persons. Moreover, when a wave of appointments of governors began, they received their label to reign, despite their informal income.
Finally, I remind you that in August of this year I published an article on the “hedgehog” in which I wrote that Putin was going to take an attack on his elite in order to build it with his stirring. Exactly this is happening now. And again corruption is used as a tool. And again, shooting goes to the headquarters, and not along the commanders. Nothing new - again dejavu.
And now I am approaching the third reason why I remembered Andropov. I don’t know whether Putin does not seek to follow the practice of the famous predecessor, without encroaching on the representatives of the closest level of the elite. I can only assume. And my assumption is that he consciously tries not to produce enemies at this level. Even the uncompensated removal of Luzhkov did not turn into persecution, although the topic of corruption, I recall, in this case was also worked out.
But this does not mean that thereby he can protect himself from the collapse of his regime, and the country from the unpredictable consequences of revolutionary upheavals. I draw the attention of readers to the next fact. The real controllability of the country is more dependent on the very “headquarters” by which Putin prefers to beat than his immediate appointments. Pressing metaphorically, regiments to Palace Square are not brought to the commanders of the districts, but by the commanders of the regiments. The largest threat of stability of the regime comes from this level. If they cease to feel safe and lose loyalty, they will do everything to protect themselves.
The tragedy is in a permissible idea of stability. Real stability - adaptive stability - is achieved by the effective work of institutions, in which the current regime is not interested. Their stability is personal stability. And their methods are hopeless, which is evidenced by historical experience. Exactly so you need to relate to this deja vu.
Author - President of the Indem Foundation