North Atlantic breeze off the coast of Odessa

Less than a year has passed since NATO military exercises were disrupted in Crimea, and the brave American sailors were expelled from Feodosia in disgrace. However, the turbulent events of last year have every chance of repeating this summer. The reason for this will be the same as a year ago, the Ukrainian-American military exercises “Sea Breeze” under the auspices of NATO. Only they will take place not off the coast of Crimea, but in Odessa and at the Shirokiy Lan training ground in the Nikolaev region.

The head of the military cooperation department of the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Colonel Alexander Sherstyuk, said that the exercises will be held “in a different place and not in the format as planned last year.” The purpose of the exercises, conducted in the spirit of the Partnership for Peace program, is to “test, according to NATO standards, the actions of multinational forces during the planning and conduct of a peacekeeping (anti-terrorist) operation.” During the active phase of the maneuvers, it is planned to practice joint actions of multinational units and increase “the level of intercompatibility of forces during peacekeeping and anti-terrorist operations.” At the same time, as the organizers of the exercises note, the main attention will be focused on the role of the states of the Black Sea and Caspian basin in ensuring maritime security and participation in joint peacekeeping operations.

The Sea Breeze 2007 exercise will be conducted in accordance with the individual partnership program between the Ministries of Defense of Ukraine and the United States for 2007 and the international military cooperation plan of the Ukrainian Navy. Ten countries have already confirmed their desire to take part in the Ukrainian-American exercises: in addition to the USA and Ukraine, these are Germany, Canada, Turkey, Moldova, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Armenia and Macedonia. The General Staff of Ukraine intends to use in the exercises the large landing ship "Konstantin Olshansky", the medium landing ship "Kirovograd", the frigate "Hetman Sahaidachny", the corvettes "Ternopil" and "Pridneprovye", the sea minesweeper "Chernigov", the base minesweeper "Genichesk", the rescue tug "Kremenets", an artillery boat "Skadovsk", transport ship "Svatove", B-12 aircraft, Mi-8, Mi-24 and Mi-14 helicopters.

In addition to the working group of the Ukrainian naval forces, representatives of the US Navy took part in the first planning conference for the preparation of the exercise, which ended in early February. At the same time, the US Ambassador to Ukraine, William Taylor, visited Odessa and made several statements regarding the planned exercises. In particular, he expressed hope that “the authorities of the Odessa and Nikolaev regions will make every effort to successfully conduct international naval exercises,” as well as confidence that “the upcoming maneuvers will strengthen the cooperation of his country and NATO with Ukraine.” The ambassador also suggested that “this will also benefit the regions where the exercises will take place,” not at all embarrassed by the fact that such a statement could be regarded as interference in the internal affairs of Ukraine.

Unlike last year, the protest campaign against the exercises may not be as widespread. During last year's protest campaign, the Party of Regions was in opposition, but today it is in power and bound by obligations under the Universal Agreement, which clearly includes a clause on cooperation with NATO.

In January, the life of one of the leaders of the “regionals” and the organizer of the protest campaign in Feodosia, Evgeniy Kushnarev, was tragically cut short. This death not only orphaned the Party of Regions, depriving it of one of its brightest leaders, it meant a significant change in the vectors of the majority party in the Verkhovna Rada. Yevgeny Kushnarev was primarily an ideological politician who took part in the famous congress in Severodonetsk, all of whose participants were persecuted for “separatism.” Today, Raisa Bogatyreva and Taras Chornovil are nominated for the first roles among the “regionals”. The first (the head of the parliamentary faction of the “regionals”) became an active supporter of the creation of the so-called local Orthodox Church in Ukraine, joining the opponents of the canonical UOC within the Moscow Patriarchate, whose parishioners are the majority of believers in Ukraine. Taras Chornovil, the son of a famous Ukrainian nationalist writer, who quite by chance found himself in the ranks of the “regionals”, has recently been increasingly demonstrating his ideological views. In particular, he expressed the opinion that the Anti-Crisis Coalition in the Rada will support the holding of "Breeze - 2007". According to Chornovil, the Party of Regions opposed the holding of Sea Breeze 2006 in Crimea because “all legislative and constitutional norms were violated then,” but today “everything takes place within the framework of the law.” This time, in his opinion, “everything will go smoothly.” Chornovil does not rule out the possibility of holding protests, but said that it is “not wise” to oppose any contacts with the West in the military sphere.

However, it is unlikely that the July maneuvers under the auspices of NATO near Odessa will go smoothly. The opposition forces, even if they lack the support of the “regionals” who have become the party in power, remember their victory last year (which actually ensured the creation of an anti-crisis coalition and Yanukovych’s premiership) and are extremely determined.

The leader of the Progressive Socialist Party of Ukraine, Natalya Vitrenko, speaking on February 11 in Sevastopol, announced the mobilization of her electorate in order to disrupt NATO exercises in Odessa and the Nikolaev region. At the same time, all left forces will act as a united front: the Odessa regional organizations of the Communist Party of Ukraine and the PSPU are preparing to hold a public referendum against the exercise. The Confederation of Russian Compatriots of Ukraine, the Union of Orthodox Citizens of Ukraine and the Crimean youth organization “Breakthrough” are even more radical, announcing the creation of a regional anti-NATO defense committee.

According to SPGU leader Valery Kaurov, Orthodox activists have extensive experience in such actions: back in 2004-2005, a tent city organized by SPGU stood in Odessa for more than six months; last spring, the Union of Orthodox Citizens organized a series of actions against the blockade of Transnistria, and during the events in Feodosia, the arrival of Odessa residents became a turning point that tipped the scales in favor of the resisting forces. According to Kaurov, up to 85% of Odessa residents can take part in anti-NATO actions.

At the same time, the Ukrainian authorities are already preparing for reprisals against protesters. The leader of the Crimean "Breakthrough" Nadezhda Polyakova reported on the establishment of external surveillance of the organization's leaders and wiretapping of phones without court permission, blocking the trips of the organization's activists to authorized events, interrogations and searches of the apartments of more than a hundred activists of the organization and their minor children. Considering the zeal with which the “orange” authorities began to carry out repressions against the leaders of the South-East in 2005, Polyakova’s words can be taken quite seriously. Nevertheless, these repressive measures deepened the territorial division of Ukraine even more than in 2004 and did not save the “orange” from defeat in 2006.

It is difficult to predict whether Protestants will be able to disrupt the July exercises. Valery Kaurov admits that blocking the port in Odessa will be more difficult than in Feodosia: this port has several exits. However, there is no doubt that the protests will become the very breeze that will completely undermine the already unstable internal political situation in Ukraine and will certainly affect the results of the upcoming referendum on joining NATO.

Sociological surveys show that, despite the intensification of the entire arsenal of state propaganda, in Ukrainian society there remains a persistent rejection of Ukraine’s accession to the North Atlantic Alliance, which violates the neutral status of the state. Even in the Czech Republic, a NATO member, US intentions to deploy missile defense systems on the territory of this country caused mass protest among the population. For supporters of drawing Ukraine into NATO, the ideal would be to slowly but purposefully develop a propaganda (“explanatory”) campaign among the population to “improve the image of the alliance” in combination with international meetings and conferences. Provoking the public to additional protests is not the best way to achieve the “correct” results in a referendum, much less to save the unity of a crumbling country.