The wolf comes without calling

We all remember Putin’s words about “comrade wolf who eats and doesn’t listen to anyone.” It seemed like a metaphor. But it turns out it’s true.

Or at least very similar to her. As always, we don't have enough time. In 1914, the program of rearmament of the Russian army was in full swing. Another year - and she would have been the strongest in Europe. And you got a shot in Sarajevo, and away we go. In 1941, rearmament was also in full swing; the program was designed, it seems, until 1943. And again - on you.

Here it is now. An Energy Superpower is almost built. Gazprom in terms of capitalization has reached third place in the world. We are almost dictating terms to Europe... And suddenly... We don’t have time. As always, we are just a little short of it, and the shameful wolves are right there.

What kind of wolves are we talking about, though? But about which ones. Just a month ago, the Russian Commodity System (RTS, the main indicator of business activity in Russia) fluctuated around 1,800 points. On June 13 (Black Tuesday) it dropped to 1200 points. Gazprom shares recently cost more than $13, now they cost $8.5. What happened? What wolves came running, ate them and didn’t listen to anyone? NATO? Saakashvili? "Orange" in Ukraine? CIA? Moscow fifth column?

Imagine - everything is not the same. The efforts are titanic! – Russia achieved brilliant results in the fight against them. During the defense of Sevastopol, NATO shamefully fled, miraculously not being captured. Saakashvili “crawled on his belly.” The “Orange” have squabbled, they can’t form a government for two months, lest they get to new elections. The CIA is a secret organization, but we haven’t heard anything about any of their new dirty tricks, they are hiding like a snake under a stone. As for the Moscow liberals, these cowardly traitors know their place and business well - the most they can do is, grabbing each other by the button, heatedly arguing about the principles of uniting empty with empty...

No, trouble came from unexpected places.

The wolf turned out to be Ben Bernanke. Unlike Saakashvili-Yushchenko-Bush-Kasparov-Berezovsky, the name of this enemy means little to the general public. But it was he who dealt Russia the most despicable blow, worse than Novodvorskaya herself could have done! It’s even somehow embarrassing to tell the enlightened “Hedgehogs” who Mr. Bernanke is. But nevertheless, in view of the further presentation, I will explain (and please do not be angry with me for this) - this is the name of the American official, the new head of the US Federal Reserve System (FRS). Alan Greenspan occupied this seat for many years. Under good old Alan, the Russian stock market began, collapsed, and rose from the ashes. And then, as in the film “Chapaev”: as soon as the commissar was changed, the enemies attacked like a thief in the night...

Let the reader have the right to ask, what kind of nonsense is this? What kind of “commissar” is there? What does Russia have to do with American officials and what, excuse me, does any Bernanke care about the Russian stock market? Speak up, dear author, but don’t talk!

Oh my God! I’m not talking, but trying to somehow retell in my own language what all the economic newspapers in Russia write about every day.

This same Bernanke began to fight inflation, raise the discount rate on loans in the United States, without, of course, thinking at all about the rest of the world, primarily about Russia. However, as a result, stock indices began to fall, like dominoes, in all countries - Europe, Asia, in all emerging markets, including Russia. For example, on June 12 on the London stock exchange the stock index fell by 2.56%, on the Paris stock exchange by 2.9%, and on June 13 the RTS index fell by 9.37%. Which once again demonstrated the well-known saying: “where a fat man dries, a thin man dies.” To this we must add that the fall on our stock exchange has been going on for a month now. Among its reasons are the fall in oil and metal prices in the world, but the main reason still lies in the United States, in changes in its discount rate.

The relationship between the discount rate and economic growth is a rather subtle matter, with a million details, etc. At the most primitive level, “everything is simple” - the more expensive it is to borrow money, the lower economic activity in the United States. The Fed is constantly driving the discount rate left and right. This is visible and is called the “invisible hand of the market” and “free capitalism”.

But questions about the degree of “purity” or state governance in American capitalism are not at all the topic of this article.

There are other aspects that interest me in this whole story.

First. We all know about “sovereign democracy”: if some uninvited moral teacher sticks her Western snout into our Russian garden, we will pin him down. And we will do it very correctly: we are, after all, a power, or so... went out for a walk?! “And he answered himself – Power.”

The situation with a sovereign economy is more complicated. This bastard Bernanke does not even think of teaching us or bothering us with strict morality. Simply, without knowing us, by changing HIS discount rate, he brings down our market, like the markets of other countries. What to do - everything in the world is interconnected, globalization, etc. But the politically correct “everything is interconnected” has a slightly different meaning when it comes to the economies of the USA and the Russian Federation! Universal gravity is also mutual - only the apple quickly falls to the ground, and the Earth somehow twitches very little towards the apple - these two objects have different masses! And this is the most disgusting thing - without any words or teachings, this is what Mr. Bernacke demonstrates to us. It’s scary to say: his decisions have a stronger impact on the Russian market than the decisions... of the government and the President of the Russian Federation! It can’t be - Russophobic slander!

However, let us remember the loudest (and as time has shown - absolutely correct, fair and simply wise!) economic decision of the authorities, which immediately comes to mind: the arrest of the murderer, thief and tax maniac Khodorkovsky and his entire YUKOS gang. It was strong! The market shook at a sharp turn, but much less than from the actions of Mr. Bernanke! Just by the numbers – less. Of course, perhaps these individual figures do not prove much, they can be disputed (and there are many who would like to do this), but some unsavory feeling still remains.

It’s your choice, but it’s still somehow ugly: why can’t we destroy OUR own market?! The fact that it grew due to world oil prices is okay. But it also collapses NOT FROM OUR decisions? Some kind of nonsense...

Where is the sovereignty? Economic sovereignty, I mean?

No, it exists, it undoubtedly exists, without faith in it it’s impossible to live... But on the surface it appears somehow weakly...

However, to hell with him, with this same Bernanke. Here the second question arises.

And, by and large: do we care what is happening there on this very stock and bond market?

In Russia, 150,000 individuals are registered on the stock exchange, and 200,000 are shareholders of mutual investment funds (these two sets, by the way, overlap greatly). So what do we care if the virtual money of Ms. Baturina (and even Mr. Baturin!), Messrs. Kerimov, Ivanishvili, other well-known portfolio investors and the small fish swimming around these sperm whales is growing? What is important to a normal person?

So that prices do not rise, and wages behave quite the opposite. So that jobs appear. And in general - “if only my native country could live.” This song seems to say nothing about the stock exchange and speculators! Of course, the capitalization of our market reached almost 700 billion dollars (with a GDP of 1,539 billion, and Gref managed to calculate that this capitalization reaches 80% of GDP! Economics and statistics are a complex science), and the collapse of such a market is, in general, not joke... But this is not our sadness, but theirs, Rublevo-Uspenskaya.

In general, Gaidar loved to remember the wise words of one old woman: “God be with her, with inflation! It is important for us that prices do not rise...”

“When Abner read in the evening newspaper about the panic on the stock exchange and how billions of dollars in value had turned into nothing in a few hours, he said: “Serves them right.” These young fellows did not earn their money through their own labor!”

Maybe that was the case, but it didn’t change the fact that these were the guys who spent the money, and now there’s nothing left to spend.” This is how the famous American social writer Upton Sinclair describes the situation in the USA in 1929.

Of course, our situation is different. There, already in 1929, there were tens of millions of shareholders; in 2006, in our country, hundreds of thousands, the head of that very middle class, are DIRECTLY related to the stock exchange. But these hundreds of thousands, in turn, actually spend money - more than millions of others. Further, they, with their companies (these are not necessarily owners, but upper-middle managers, say), are generally the engine of the economy. Let's say, one of the motors. Finally, a conditional figure - the same stock index - is an indicator of business activity in general. In the first half of 1998, the index kept falling and falling - and so on until the default. True, then the situation was much worse. There were low oil prices ($15-20), but now they are hovering around $70. The country has seen a flux of state bonds, and now the treasury’s pockets are bursting with gold and foreign exchange reserves.

On the other hand, prices for oil and metals fluctuate for reasons beyond our control. A downturn in the global economy – and a downturn in prices. Or even worse: our Iranian turbulent friend will stop making a fuss, the same Iraq will calm down a little - here you have an increase in production, and here again, a fall in prices. Maybe not at times, but at a significant percentage.

As for GKOs, there are definitely none, but huge corporate borrowings of our companies, including state-owned ones, including Gazprom, are growing. And this is no wonder. Everyone suddenly somehow believed that “we live happily today – and tomorrow will be more fun.” Borrowing has become easy and pleasant, but how can you give back? And - from oil, from gas, it’s not for nothing that we hold the oil and gas God by the beard. Prices MUST rise - because how could we do otherwise?! Prices MUST rise - after all, we are already accustomed to it... Prices MUST rise - otherwise we don’t like it, otherwise we don’t even agree, that’s what!.. And if you please, grow and not argue!

Dizziness from success is an inevitable disease.

And now Putin is great, and we are a Superpower, and where can they get away from us, we have tied them hand and foot with gas pipelines, we dictate, and they take notes after us, purely schoolchildren... Every success corrupts, causeless success - generally deprives us of understanding cause-and-effect relationships in the world. And for the last 6 years our success has been ABSOLUTELY unreasonable - a freebie, sir!

Of course, as a citizen of the Russian Federation, I hope that fear has big eyes, that the freebie will last... for some time. Why are we... right?! We just got up, one might say, just got a taste for it - and suddenly... Exchange fluctuations are an inevitable thing. They are very strong now. But although stock analysts, as expected, have moved from euphoria to panic, you should not pay attention to either the first or the second.

It will work out... It will get better little by little... this time. It will get better so that the general public won’t notice anything. And he will continue to live in the sacred confidence that our economy is completely sovereign, if it depends on anything, then on the decisions of the President, and we hold them all by the thin oil and gas Adam's apple, we will squeeze it if we want. Our dad is the strongest of all dads! Firstly, because he is OUR dad, and secondly, because he is a gas-producer! And YOU have gas in your apartment, and we have... And we have a gas pipeline, here!

And what - isn't it? We are not afraid of the gray wolf...