Party and service

The rally on December 24 was even more crowded than a rally on December 10. This is the only thing that matters.

Even before the start of the rally, the authorities made concessions. President Medvedev, in his hasty message, proposed to return the elections of governors, facilitate the registration of political parties (from now on, it is necessary not 45 thousand, but 500 people for registration) and reduce the number of signatures necessary for the presidential candidate from 2 million to 300 thousand.

In a word, as in a joke: "Do not want - I cross out." Each nation deserves the government that has.

Now a little prose. First. I very much doubt that the reform declared by the unfinished reform will be implemented. In general, what's the point is that political reforms are declared by a person whose name in recent weeks has not been mentioned either by Putin or the opposition; A person who has never fulfilled his promises yet? He did not manage to investigate the accident on Leninsky Prospekt, and he promises political reforms there.

Second. The authorities will try to turn its current moral defeat into a technical victory. To set the Naziks, to quarrel the opposition among themselves, but you never know what-for example, I would not really advise Alexei Navalny until March and even after remaining somewhere alone. Not in the sense that he should go with security. And in the sense that it should always be accompanied by assistant friends.

Third. Kleptocracy favorably differs from totalitarianism in that totalitarianism sends missiles and tanks to the damned West, and Kleptocracy - money. And Kleptocracy is very afraid to cross the line, after which it will become a disorderly. Because then the money will remain in the West, and the authorities in Russia, and to what the hell of kleptocracy power without money?

In this sense, the story with rallies is very similar to the war with Georgia. Then in the Kremlin they really wanted to hang Saakashvili by the eggs, but as soon as Bush raised their voice - and the Kremlin hooligans were blown away. Here exactly the same: the first rallies began to disperse, but as soon as Hilary Clinton and the European Union to elevate his voice - they blown away.

According to a comic coincidence, if anyone in Russia is obeyed by the State Department, it is the Kremlin. It is indignant and splashes saliva, but he obeys. Another thing is that what the troops did not do in Georgia, then began to be done with the help of all kinds of technical tricks: either small terrorist attacks, then the unrest, then politicians finance. The same thing will be with civil society: it will be such an internal Georgia, which will be pressed by methods below the threshold of attention of Hilary Clinton.

And since the basic law of kleptocracy is that kleptocracy always steals money, even among its own bosses, these methods will be stupid and obvious as in Georgia.

The fourth circumstance, in my opinion, is that Putin and his environment need legitimacy in the eyes of the West (see point about avuars). And at the same time, Putin needs a victory in the first round, because his negative rating is too large, and in the case of entering the second round of Putin and Zyuganov, it cannot be ruled out that Zyuganov will win. In any case, the Kunshtyuk that happened in 1996. (Better Yeltsin than Zyuganov) will be difficult to repeat.

This means that the system will be forced to falsify the elections. Because she is so arranged. Because every official will strive to excel to the boss. Because each governor will assume that this boss will blame the low result of the boss not to himself, but to the governor.

But the system cannot falsify well. Because she can no longer do anything well, and because the real goal of all participants in the system is to steal as much money as possible. It doesn’t matter in construction or in the elections.

And since it will be bad to falsify, the whole future of the awakened civil society depends on whether it will be able to catch the system by the hand and prove falsification.

In order to catch the system by the hand, you do not need to build a party where everyone writes programs that are not interesting to anyone, and bite due to posts. It is necessary to build a company that provides a certain service: considers falsification in the elections.

The company will provide this service through volunteers. The volunteer comes and says: “I can work with databases. And I am ready to write software against the "carouselliters." "Great! Forward". The volunteer comes and says: “I am a lawyer. I am ready to be on duty on the patch if observers begin to throw out from somewhere. ” "Great. Forward". The volunteer comes and says: "I want to be a leader of the masses and write a political program for them." “Thank you guy, go home and write. We have no places for you. We, as in every company, have places for lawyers, systems and managers, but for the leaders of the masses we have no places. Go to the street and drive the masses. ”

Such a company, unlike the party, has no reason for dialogue with the Kremlin, because this company does not produce political programs and not warm places, but a product that is demanded by the voter called the “Cremlin’s Lynchina”.

Anyone who builds such a company will become the future president of Russia. And the ability of the opposition to build a company, not a party, and will serve as a measure of its effectiveness. Otherwise, it turns out that in Russia neither power nor opposition are ineffective, and from two ineffective structures the one who has more money - that is, the Kremlin.

I know that among the opposition there are many politicians, writers and just good people who are ready to lead the party. But I think that the opposition has only one good manager who is able to create such a company that operates according to the same principle as Rospil. His name is Alexei Navalny.

Photos of the hedgehog / Maria Olendskaya