Tehran Raskolnikov

If you want to kill a neighbor or shoot from a window at moving targets, then you FIRST get a rifle and only THEN kill - silently or with wild screams. But who does the OPPOSITE: screams “I’ll kill you, just let me arm myself”?

An attempt to understand the mysterious soul of the Iranian president is not so much a political analysis as it is a desire to unravel a tantalizing logical puzzle. So, let’s take it as a working hypothesis that the President of the Islamic Republic of Iran is not at all a madman who is raving on air, but a rational person (to the extent that any politician in the world can be considered such).

How can we understand the chain of his statements: “There was no Holocaust. But it will be - just let us finish work on the peaceful atom.” “We didn’t care about the IAEA as a whole, the USA and Western Europe – with particular pleasure.”

Of course, the translation is inaccurate in words, but quite accurate in meaning. This is exactly what the President wanted to tell Humanity, and this is exactly what earthlings heard. “Happiness is when you are understood.”

And where is the happiness for a RATIONAL president? It's pretty obvious.

For some reason, listeners in the West (however, the egocentrism characteristic of people) judges from their own bell tower: it seems to them that the president was addressing them. Although it was clearly said: “I don’t care about you.”

He addressed, of course, a) his people, b) the Muslim world as a whole.

Obviously, there are problems within the country (oh, God, who doesn’t have them!). I don’t risk entering into the realm of speculation (maybe he... sounds terrible... wants to take over the blanket from the Ayatollah himself?! Maybe he wants to become the de facto head of the country from the nominal head of the country? But there may be 1000 other reasons). One thing is clear - “the women shouted “Hurray!” and they threw the burqa into the air.” The people rejoice with approximately the same force with which the people of Israel are indignant.

Overall: there are no bombs, but the nuclear reaction of national delight has already begun.

There is also the Arab world, where Iran claims leadership. It is clear that the president, as an honest anti-Semite, hates Jews even in his free time, “not for the sake of self-interest.” But it is also clear that - if he is a rational politician - “at work” the state of Israel (and especially the “Palestinian flea”) actually does not concern him in any way, just as Iran would not be of any interest to Israel at all, if not for Iranian threats. Israel, of course, is only a scapegoat for Iran, an instrument for the consolidation of the Muslim world. This is serious. And there is only one way to move your country forward in PR competition with Arab countries - to prove that you are the No. 1 Judeophobe in the Muslim world (and therefore in the world in general). The competition is not easy... But big people are not afraid of difficulties.

So, we’ve already hit two birds with one stone. But the question still remains - why are you so itching? Isn’t it possible to wait for the Big Club to actually appear and only then swing it? First, get yourself an axe, and then yell at the whole street, “Am I a trembling creature or do I have the right?!” Moreover, your screams will probably wake up Texas Porfiry Petrovich, and he, perhaps, with his playful little hands - bam! And then what are your moans of passion worth? Well, you have the “right”, but you don’t have an ax – so shove this right into your… law enforcement agency! What kind of butcher is without an axe? You chop the air with your tongue, brother...

So? NO, NOT AT ALL.

Firstly, there is a technical problem - you get tired of waiting. As they say, Iran could actually have a bomb in 3-5 years. So why should he suck his paw all this time? Political dividends are needed today. Well, then the bomb.

Secondly, the President of Iran knows very well that no matter how you scream, Israel and the United States (and Europe) will try to do everything to not give you a nuclear ax.

And thirdly, what opportunities do “Iran’s opponents” actually have to actually prevent him from creating the Bomb? Israel will bomb nuclear facilities, what is everyone shouting about? From a military-technical point of view, this is probably difficult, but possible. Will Israel agree to this politically? If so, Europe will experience real relief - and, taking a breath, noisily attack the “Israeli military.” The wild “anti-Zionist campaign” will be repeated in the European media, which a couple of years ago were rabidly salivating about Israel (by the way, Jewish socialists, human rights activists, leftists, etc., of course, ran ahead of everyone with their politically correct curses against Israel. The Israeli left did not lag behind - democracy!).

But the Israeli strike does not depend on Iranian abuse, but on the degree of readiness of the Iranian Bomb. In this sense, the words of the Iranian president do not add or subtract anything. Israel does not listen - Israel watches (through the eyes of its intelligence). And besides Israel, the Iranian president REALLY has nothing to fear.

The US lost the war against Iran - in Iraq. The Iraq War has already cost the United States (calculated by the Americans themselves) about $2,000,000,000,000 (2 TRILLION!). Yes, the USA is a rich country. But the United States will not be able to fight a second war, not with Iraq (24 million inhabitants), but with Iran (68 million!). The United States in its right mind is also unlikely to agree to sanctions against Iran - these are sanctions against the American economy, this is a new rise in oil prices, this is the threat of stagnation and the collapse of the dollar.

Where does that leave the US? Bomb nuclear facilities? And why? They will gladly entrust this “dirty work” to a vitally interested Israel. Moreover, unlike Israel, the United States will not act without – at least formal – sanctions from the world community. In the meantime, this machine (be it the UN, NATO or anyone else) will heat up - a lot of heavy water will flow through the Iranian reactor.

And finally, one more interesting circumstance. How, exactly, will a bomb help Iran in the event of international complications? Whom to bomb? UN? IAEA? Israel?

Yes, the Bomb is an argument in intra-Muslim disputes about “who is in charge.” The bomb is an argument to pursue an anti-Israeli policy even more confidently, even more brazenly, to incite terrorists even more brutally. But the Bomb is as powerless against international sanctions as Raskolnikov’s ax is against the police.

So. What is the President of Iran doing?

He detonates propaganda Bombs, earning himself points. Yes, he is also preparing a real Bomb, perhaps (we agreed that he is a rational person), having the following in mind. If he does it (if he is allowed to do so), then he is a political leader in the Muslim world. At least, this is how he can position himself - however, Saudi Arabia and Egypt will have a completely different opinion on this matter... But if Israel bombs Iranian nuclear facilities, even better! Then he (the president) is a national hero, a martyr (despite the fact that he personally risks absolutely nothing!). The people stand on their heels for a long time and yell good obscenities about the “atrocities of the Zionists,” burn Israeli and American flags and rush into battle... “for the Palestinians.” Then he (the president) is freed from the Bomb... with which, frankly, it’s not very clear what to do “in life”...

More than that. A normal person in the position of the President of Iran should understand that the only guarantee of the security of his country is the absence of nuclear weapons. And vice versa: the only guarantee that he will NEVER be left alone (USA, Europe) is that he has a Bomb. In order for this bomb not to seem to the whole world like a bomb with a ticking clock mechanism, the political regime in Iran must at least change. And he is not going to change yet.

Today, the Iranian president is playing a simple game. Because of hooligan cries, his power within the country is only strengthening, his influence in the Muslim world is growing, and the fact that several billion can go down the drain and several tens (hundreds) of people die (if the objects are bombed) is a matter of business! Who should he report to? Before the Ayatollah? Before Allah? There seems to be no one else.

So the Iranian president is right. What he needs is not the Bomb (not so much the Bomb) as the Myth of the Bomb. He actively creates the myth - and exploits it in his own interests, without waiting for the real Bomb.

And one last thing. About Russian politics. She is, as always, absolutely cynical. And quite pragmatic – which doesn’t happen often.

Tensions in the Middle East are keeping oil prices high. Deals with Iran are needed by a “kickback patriot” (this is not a deal with Israel! Damned purists - what do they even imagine?!). But even the most ardent Russian patriots of rollback do not need a “rollback to Russia” in the form of weapons-grade plutonium from Basayev! Even the most insignificant possibility of such a “plutonium rollback” from Iran, of course, worries the Kremlin – certainly no less than Washington.

Yes, of course, the Iranian president is “a crazy person, but he knows where to go.” That's it. It seems so. And... what if?!! After all, he’s crazy... In general, the Kremlin would like to have more reliable guarantees of security... that there is “security” - guarantees of the EXISTENCE of Russia, and not just the feeling that “HE’S not crazy there... Well, PROBABLY not crazy...” .

Therefore, the old Russian money-lender, receiving money (officially and in the form of kickbacks) from Tehran Raskolnikov, only dreams of him breaking his neck - before he gets that very ax. Just let someone else help him with this. Let Uncle Sam work as an “evil investigator” - he’s no stranger to it (and if this fool uncle also imposes sanctions on Iran... into the pocket of the Russian oil industry, then we should wash such an uncle’s feet and drink water - that is, we will loudly resist these sanctions in UN!). If, as is most likely, the Israelis take upon themselves the joy of twisting Raskolnikov’s hands, then what can I say...

Jews fight, and Russia trades!