Best of Successors

Fresh joke: “Yesterday, March 2, 2008, the presidential elections of the Russian Federation took place. Over 80% of voters cast their votes for him. Today we finally find out who we voted for.”

We found out a little earlier: in December. The next president will be First Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev. The best choice for Putin and, perhaps, the best for Russia.

Why? Please, let me explain.

In my opinion, there are two reasons why Vladimir Putin hesitated for so long to make a choice, and both are very solid.

One reason is purely political.

During the entire term of Putin's presidency, we observed an unlimited strengthening of presidential power and a weakening of any other power. Governors, the prosecutor's office, the courts, and parliament have lost their independence. The rebellious oligarchs went to prison, and the submissive ones began to negotiate deals with the president. The presidential office has turned into a sparkling Ring of Omnipotence, into Aladdin's lamp - rub, and a genie will appear who will grant any wish.

Such an Aladdin lamp is not melted down to be given to someone. You need this lamp for yourself.

President Putin had two ways to maintain power. One is to change the Constitution and remain in power. Another is to appoint a successor who will obey him. That is, the technology should look like this: the successor is standing, Putin is nearby, the successor is rubbing Aladdin’s lamp, a genie flies out and asks: “What do you want?” The successor says: “Ask Vladimir Vladimirovich what he wants.” Obviously, such a design is fragile, because even the quietest, most submissive, weakest successor will very quickly realize that he now has the lamp.

This, in fact, is not a question of politics, it’s a question of psychology: will the successor quickly figure this out? Obviously, the personality of Dmitry Medvedev, who has never been seen in daring impulses, instant accomplishments and decisive turns, gives reason to hope that he will not figure it out soon, and, having realized it, will not immediately decide to act.

In this sense, Dmitry Medvedev’s behavior as a curator of national projects is an absolute plus for the president. Now, if he had implemented these projects, it would have been a minus. And so - a person for whom, with huge money, unlimited resources and the personal mandate of the president, everything got stuck somewhere, stalled and evaporated - this inspires hope that the same thing will happen with Aladdin’s lamp as with national projects. That is, he will stand in the corner, collecting dust, and Putin will wander into the office and rub it instead of Medvedev.

Here, in fact, it is important to note this: despite the abundance of all kinds of intrigues, scams and setups in the Kremlin, Dmitry Medvedev is distinguished by his gentleness. This kindness is not even personal, but systemic, because there are, roughly speaking, two categories of people around President Putin. Some are career security officers who spin, scam, expose conspiracies against the president, imprison his enemies, look for traitors, and do all this because they don’t know how to do anything else. Others are career officials like Kudrin, Kozak or Medvedev, who, regardless of personal honesty or determination, simply do not know how to do all of the above, and do not, due to obvious futility, enter into competition with pike to see who swims better.

And so President Putin chose a person who does not compete with the pikes: the question, however, is whether this person will protect Putin from the pikes.

For the second reason for President Putin’s hesitation is purely economic. As I have already noted, the economic result of the president’s rule is that the Russian economy has become largely concentrated in the hands of his friends. In particular, the result of the fight against YUKOS is that from now on, oil exports from Yuganskneftegaz are carried out through the foreign trader Gunvor with such fantastic profits for the trader that Gunvor’s capitalization is approaching $20 billion.

If the president had stayed for a third term, the West might have been upset and become interested in the real owners of Gunvor. But if the president leaves, there is a very high probability that all the people who, thanks to Putin, have become de facto managers of billions, will feel obligated to no one. “This is all ours,” they will say, “and the former president is a crystal clear person, and there is no stake in Gunvor or other companies.”

So - if the political risk with the new appointment is minimized, due to the obvious gentleness of Dmitry Medvedev, then the economic risk, on the contrary, is maximized.

Mr. Medvedev does not need to declare himself the true owner of Aladdin’s lamp and show extreme ingratitude towards the one who gave him this lamp. Mr. Medvedev just has to wait.

What?

Gnaw. The economic, political and financial squabble that will immediately occur as soon as the person who scammed everyone, ruled everyone, wiped his feet on everyone, falls to the same level as those who were scammed and wiped on everyone. Gnaw on a secret, but terrible, when the formal owners of offshore companies and companies, theoretically obliging someone for something, will quickly begin to forget about obligations, understand hints and even answer calls.

This squabble itself will destroy Putin. President Medvedev will only have to come and pick up the remains with a scoop. Because, you see, if Dmitry Medvedev is a very compromising person and will never raise his hand against his predecessor, then he will never interfere in someone else’s fight.

So my prediction: will Dmitry Anatolyevich eat Vladimir Vladimirovich? No. Won't eat it. Because he won't have time.

But anyway, everything is good. As soon as you imagine Sergei Ivanov in this position, who is clearly able to explain to the public that his son, having run over a 68-year-old woman, received “moral and physical injuries,” or Viktor Zubkov, who is immediately eager to insert teeth into collective farmers and lower interest rates bets, then cross yourself and say: thank God, it could have been worse.