Non-holiday season

The elections of the mayor of Sochi brought a noticeable revival to the political everyday life of the country. Solidarity's decision to nominate Boris Nemtsov was largely intuitive, but even without waiting for the results of Sunday's vote, we can confidently say that we were not mistaken.

The beginning did not foretell great prospects: the head of the initiative group of Sochi residents, who approached Nemtsov with a proposal to run, was an ordinary rogue from political technology, hoping to warm his hands on a noisy election campaign. However, Solidarity began working in Sochi even before the leapfrog with the mayors began (in a year, four Kuban appointees managed to manage the city), so we had a good grasp of the situation and were able to form a team, relying on our like-minded people - members of the United Front, human rights activists and civil activists.

On March 12, an open meeting of the Solidarity Bureau was held in Sochi, which publicly approved the nomination of Boris Nemtsov. About 100 people gathered in the hall, among whom were not only our colleagues in the democratic movement, but also high-status experts, representatives of city business, national diasporas and even deputy factions of the city assembly, including United Russia (!). Even then it became clear that the situation in Sochi was much more favorable for us than could have been expected. When we preliminary discussed Nemtsov’s chances in Moscow, we agreed that, most likely, Boris would not be registered. After March 12th and filing, I increased my forecast to 50%.

Meanwhile, our political opponent opened Pandora's box. A corps de ballet of exotic candidates performed in the media field before an astonished audience: Lugovoi, Berkova, Bogdanov, Volochkova. Alexander Lebedev, who was leading a complex game of “capitalist-idealist,” dropped into the light. The game played by Moscow “effective politicians” was unambiguous: the Sochi elections were supposed to turn into an outright farce. Komsomolskaya Pravda and other official newspapers were happy to publish freshly written anecdotes about the mayoral elections in Sochi; observers were carefully advised that democracy is a circus, and Nemtsov is one of the clowns in its arena.

All these cunning plans did not take into account one circumstance - the Kuban protege Pakhomov found himself in a rather strange position. Instead of calmly registering the investiture, with appropriate respects to the Krasnodar and Moscow authorities, he had to fight. Any kind of struggle, but a struggle - and on several fronts, including even rivalry with “party comrades”, such as Anastasia Volochkova. There is no doubt that Mr. Pakhomov fell into disarray, from which, judging by the details of his participation in the rally commemorating the victims of the 1915 genocide, he did not emerge until the very end of the election campaign.

A striking episode of the first phase of the campaign was the operetta appearance in Nemtsov’s camp of Mr. Akhedzhak, the right hand of the Krasnodar governor Tkachev. Having communicated through intermediaries his insistent desire to meet immediately, Mr. Akhedzhak came to our hotel two hours before the meeting of the Sochi election commission, which was supposed to consider the issue of registering Nemtsov. Reluctantly leaving the Mercedes, the high ambassador in a tracksuit invited Boris to take a walk and, in the shade of the acacia trees, suggested that he “not wet” Tkachev in exchange for registration. Nemtsov, of course, refused, and Mr. Akhedzhak retreated without a hitch. An hour later, the election commission, without any delay, issued our lawyer with a certificate of registration of the candidate.

Such an obvious inconsistency in actions forced us to assume, first of all, the presence of serious contradictions between Moscow and Krasnodar. This version was received with great enthusiasm and hope by the Sochi residents themselves, who, as we have already seen, were so tired of the “Kubans” that they were ready to vote for anyone, if only not for another Tkachev protégé. In this situation, Nemtsov, being, on the one hand, a native of Sochi, and on the other, a federal politician with extensive managerial experience, could receive support not only from Solidarity supporters.

One way or another, Nemtsov not only received registration, but was not removed during the campaign - unlike, for example, Lebedev, who was sacrificed without hesitation as soon as the suspicion arose that he would take away votes from Pakhomov. Of course, the presence of Nemtsov on the ballot may indicate an intention to give one of the most prominent opposition candidates a derogatory small percentage - in order to “put him in his place.” Most likely, this motive is the dominant one, and it is for this purpose that various “compromising evidence” is poured into television in tubs. But the paradox is that sooner or later you can get too carried away. The majority is skeptical about the authorities, and TV slops produce the opposite effect than intended.

The intrigue of the elections in Sochi and their uniqueness for the modern political history of Russia is that the scenario of “dismantling the regime” is being realized there right before our eyes - so far only the very first attempt to test the theory in practice.
Loyalty mechanisms within the government are beginning to fail. “Plans” issued to local election commissions, orders to directors of large enterprises (in this case, as a rule, health resorts), public and behind-the-scenes agreements with the leaders of the largest diasporas - all this rests on specific people. These people say one thing to their boss and something completely different to their circle. The conflict occurs in their heads, and even if they formally carry out orders from above, supported by promises and threats, the transmission of the imperative to specific voters occurs with a “reducing factor.” The willingness of lower-level performers in PECs and TIKs to make small forgeries is decreasing, and the temptation for small- and medium-sized officials to sabotage teams is growing, including “because they’ve had enough of everything.”
The point is not whether Nemtsov will win in Sochi or not. Perhaps today the “vertical” will still work. But it is noticeable that its safety margin is rapidly falling.

The author is the chairman of the executive committee of Solidarity