In the Kremlin

The white horse is already sad

May 20, 2013 Maxim Blunt

The government of the former junior partner of the power tandem, a lover of gadgets and a champion of modernization - Dmitry Medvedev - can be resigned before the end of the year, and the new office will be formed and headed by a half -dead and supporter of hard budget consolidation Alexei Kudrin.

The rumor actively exaggerated last week does not shine with novelty. Kudrin was returned to the Putin team repeatedly, this process began almost the day after the resignation of the former deputy prime minister and the permanent Minister of Finance of the two terms of Putin and almost a whole period of Medvedev. What kind of tempting proposals were not made to him by the head of state. And the Megaregulator, which arose on the site of the Central Bank, was offered to lead, and the presidential administration was called all economic policy. But Kudrin does not go, it is a break, clearly making it clear that it will only arrange a carte blanche to conduct the necessary economic, and possibly some political reforms.

The fact that sooner or later is perhaps really before the end of this year - Kudrin’s office will change the Medvedev government, there are practically no doubt left. Only the deadlines are discussed. Some say that Medvedev will be given to finalize before the Sochi Olympics, others claim that the economy may not withstand this large -scale event, which will not be the last factor that caused future upheavals.

In order to answer the question about the terms of government resignation, it is necessary to understand who is prepared for what role in the near future. Obviously, now, from a political point of view, the most inopportune moment for Kudrin’s arrival, a “knight on a white horse”, which will save the Russian economy and pull it out of a deep crisis. If the change of economic power has already happened today, and the responsibility for the crisis, the likelihood of which can be estimated at 70-75%, will fall on a new office, how 15 years ago this happened to Sergey Kiriyenko.

This time, Medvedev and his team and his team, which will leave only when they will finally and irrevocably prove their own failure even the most inexperienced in economic theories will become the “scapegoat”. In other words, when the crisis enters the sharp phase and begins to affect the welfare of citizens. Sooner or later, this will happen in any case, but the process can accelerate if external factors will contribute to this. A couple of weeks ago, I made a bet with one of my colleagues, claiming that the first month, when the average price of the Brent bar, will cost less than $ 90, will be the last month of Medvedev’s government. My opponent claimed that even after that the current government would be given a couple of months to allow itself to finally discredit.

There is, of course, another scenario, according to which the American economy will continue the confident recovery, Europe will overcome the debt crisis, in Japan an economic miracle will happen and the ultra -aggressive use of the printing press will bear fruit. The world economy will avoid new shocks and begin to grow violently, presenting the growing demand for energy and other resources. And in this case, no acute phase of the crisis in Russia will happen. Although there is no need to wait for rapid growth either: the preservation of the current policy will lead, under the most favorable foreign conditions, to the fact that the domestic economy, overloaded with an ineffective public sector, will seriously lag behind the rest of the world, balancing at the verge of stagnation, threatening to break in a peak at any time, barely external conditions will begin to deteriorate.

This condition can last a year and a half, or even until the next elections that may coincide with an economic collapse. And then the current government will need a “knight on a white horse” - not so much to pull out the economy from the crisis, but to save their own skins. So Kudrin has nowhere to rush, time works for him, although the white horse is already sad and only waiting for the order.

Photo by ITAR-TASS/ Ekaterina Stucina