Translated material
This is all nonsense, but here ...
The current discussion around the new person of the Putin regime contains two completely insignificant topics: Putin’s motives and sanctions. And outside the discussion, plots remain much more significant.
Let's start with motives. We tend to try to figure it out and mate the more, the more mysterious they are. Here is a scene from life: a car drives up to the entrance of Khrushchev, from which the newlyweds crawl out. Two old women are sitting on a bench at the entrance, and one of them says: “I saw, Platonovna! He dragged Zoiku to the bunk. " Specialists, as they say, know better. But another hypothesis is quite competitive: only he intends to create a healthy family.
But back to Putin. The motive as a conscious incentive or internal justification of one's own actions does not necessarily precede the action. It is often the opposite: the pogromer goes to smash the Jewish shop not because the Jews drink the blood of Christian babies. He assures himself in the latter in order to reconcile himself with the fact that he smashes a neighbor's shop. This is called "removal of cognitive dissonance."
There is one more misconception: if you understand the motive, then you can predict the actions of the subject. By no means. To a much greater extent, the following action of the subject is determined by previous actions, and not by the motives or beliefs of the subject. The above, like much more related to the topic, is repeatedly described and experimentally confirmed by social psychology.
And the last consideration: what is the difference to us than the businessman is moving, which produces excellent and acceptable irons at the price of - the desire to get rich or the dream to make housewives happy. Another thing is important: the debugged institutions of the market economy pushing entrepreneurs to work in demand regardless of their motives. The same thing in politics: institutions are more important than motives. We are discussing Putin’s motives, forgetting that for thirteen years he destroyed constitutional institutions with our connivance, which made all the current insanity possible (if not inevitable).
Sanctions are discussed primarily from the point of view of their effectiveness and consequences, which is quite natural. But officially public sanctions do not have a significant impact on possible consequences. These sanctions are part of public diplomatic games. All these sanctions have two important properties: they are as easy to introduce as can be canceled, and they should leave the possibility of finding agreements with the political elite of Russia. That is why they are so funny. Serious consequences will initiate from two sources. The first is quiet long -term sanctions. The second is unintentional consequences.
Serious sanctions will not be imposed for acutters. Their initiators will proceed from the new reality: a large country with nuclear weapons and unpredictable, dangerous power appeared on Earth. The West should now take security measures. There is no hope of Putin - this is finally clear to everyone. There is no hope for the Russian establishment and Russian society. On Earth, there is no longer a subject of international law called Russia. There is only a territory of increased danger, and this danger must be eliminated. Now they must do everything themselves, and they will do it. It is naive to judge the capabilities of the West on the basis of personal qualities of individual leaders. They are strong not by leaders, but by institutions. The West showed the ability to mobilize during the Second World War. The West won a thirty -year war of the enemy incomparably stronger than the Putin dictatorship. Therefore, it is ridiculous to doubt that they will quietly and without fuss with a new threat. And there will be no public appeal to anyone in Russia. After all, it is ridiculous to turn to an avalanche hazard rock before sitting on it from a gun to call a controlled avalanche.
I do not want to present a list of possible measures here. This is not difficult. I can write them down on a separate piece of paper and give them in reliable hands to cheat through a year. This is really easy. After all, if you look closely, some of these measures are already being implemented. Just be careful.
Unintentional consequences, by definition, are formed from a combination of the actions of the Russian authorities with the steps of the West, arising from these actions, but not considered the latter as measures to prevent threats emanating from Russia. I will give an obvious example: no one will occur to anyone to consult with Russia in connection with the planning of any international actions. This means that Russia ceases to be an intercessor for various disgusting dictatorships. In fact, Putin untied his hands to the West. But it is also important that Russia becomes unnecessary to all these dictatorships. She will not be the intercessor, she will not be given a weapon, and she will need money herself. As a result, Russia (in the sense of its political leadership) will be fenced out not only from the West, but also from the bastards family in the spirit. Everyone will shy away from her, huge, unpredictable and dangerous. There will be no restoration of the empire. There will be a sanitary cordon and neat economic strangulation. It is easy to estimate that this task is not comparable easier than the one that Reagan solved regarding the "Evil Empire".
Another example. Now joyful “patriots” are emerging, seeing the transformation of the Putin regime into a stationary bandit. They naively believe that the capital returned to Russia will begin to work for the “revival of the Russian economy”. But for this capital is not enough. Effective institutions are needed. And the main economic institution is law. Who could think that the rule of law may appear in Putin's Russia?! If you imagine unlikely and imagine the influx into the country of saving capital, then in the conditions of destroyed institutions they can give rise to only one thing: prohibitive shadow consumption, which will give its additional impulse to the total increase in prices and will further strengthen property stratification, which in Russia is already record. Both that and another will create conditions for a sharp increase in social discontent.
I have not listed above far from everything. Unintentional consequences are of low predictability. The only thing that can be said for sure: Putin put Russia on the rails leading to the abyss. The only question is in the timing and degree of the tragic of the death of Russian civilization, about which they are now singing so enthusiastic.
In the photo: Russia. Moscow. March 18. Crimean Prime Minister Sergei Aksenov, Russian President Vladimir Putin and the head of Sevastopol Alexei Chaly (from left to right) after signing an interstate agreement on the adoption of the Republic of Crimea and the city with the special status of Sevastopol to the Russian Federation.