Around Russia

OBGO Lukashenko and the choice of Russia

March 17, 2006 Alexey Makarkin

On the eve of the Belarusian elections, Alexander Lukashenko continues to escalate passions. The chairman of the Belarusian KGB Sergey Sukhorenko accused the opposition of preparing the seizure of power with the "use of explosive devices and arson." It’s good at least not in the digging of the tunnel from Bombay to London, passing through the Minsk residence of Lukashenko, in order to kidnap the dad on the instructions of the “world backstage”.

What is the reason for such a hysterical activity of Lukashenko and his dreams if he still leads in the election race? We have already called one of the reasons - this is the possibility of a second round, whom the Belarusian president, like any authoritarian leader, is forced to go to competitive elections, tries to avoid by any means: the danger of erosion of the regime in the inter -Touring period is quite likely, but I do not want to be known as a completely odious totalitarian ruler.

But there is another reason: on the side of the opposition, the future of the country is the Belarusian youth, who does not want to live in the stuffy atmosphere of the "Old Man" regime. She is so far in the minority, but it is her position that can decide the fate of the Lukashenko regime - if not now, then after some, perhaps not too long time. To crush the opposition, to destroy its infrastructure, to intimidate young opponents of the regime, to drive them into the kitchen is the strategic task of the Belarusian president, which goes far beyond the specific election campaign.

However, the accusations of Lukashenko and his people against the Belarusian opposition often look very strange and implausible. So in this case, the KGB chairman told a story that you can’t call it otherwise than fantastic. It turns out that on the day of the presidential election, terrorist attacks in schools where polling stations are located were to be held by a group of villains who were held "training in the Georgian camp" Kmara ", where the teachers were four Arab, officers of the former Soviet army and came to take exams Colonel of the Security Service of the MGB Georgia." But this is not all: the camp was also visited by American instructors, obviously with the most sinister goals.

Why did Sukhrenko nevertheless told this story that brings up on poor-quality spy novels? It is clear that first of all, the message is not addressed to the Belarusian people. Lukashenko’s supporters could feed any, far from such an intricate story. For example, leave Georgians, but do not mention the Arabs. Or leave the Arabs, but not touch the Americans. The pile of conspirators is intended for a very specific person - Vladimir Putin.

It is known that for the Russian authorities it has become familiar to focus on the "Arabic factor" in Chechnya. Hence the Arabs-how to drink, international terrorists, excess-vahhabits, are training Belarusian oppositionists. Russia is now completely spoiled by relations with Georgia - therefore, the conspirators are trained there. The competition in the post -Soviet space between Russia and the United States has sharply intensified, the two countries are becoming less and less among which their positions are really close - it is not surprising that American instructors are woven in the history of Sukhrenko.

The thing is that one of the most interesting questions now is just the reaction of Russia. Lukashenko expects a blessing from Putin to suppress the opposition not just with tough, but cruel methods. The same Sukhorenko clearly stated that all participants in the opposition shares will be considered terrorists and punished under the corresponding article of the Belarusian Criminal Code, which, by the way, provides for at least 8 years in prison, and the maximum of the death penalty (which has not yet been canceled in Belarus).

The Russian president was faced with a choice. On the one hand, Lukashenko can be supported and divided with him responsibility for possible consequences. But one thing is to stand up for Karimov in distant Central Asia, where there was a real rebellion of Islamic radicals, albeit sunk in the blood. And it’s quite different-to give yourself to identify with a regime that is ready to make a bloody bathhouse in Europe, regarding supporters of freedom and democracy, led by Alexander Milinkevich, a pretty physicist-bordard of the Gavel type. In this case, the “scarecases” about the possible exclusion of Russia from the “big eight” can acquire real outlines. And this membership is symbolically important for the Russian president, who does not smile at all the prospect of lining in the same club with Kim Jong Irom (whose armored train shocked Russian society a few years ago), Lukashenko and even Mugaba from Zimbabwe. It is much more prestigious to be in another club - with Bush, Blair and Shirak.

On the other hand, in front of the Kremlin’s eyes, an example of velvet revolutions of the late 80s, when Mikhail Gorbachev did not care about falling the regimes of many years of Moscow. Now in the Russian establishment, this period is considered to be the beginning of the country's global geopolitical defeat. And if so, is it not even the most pleasant Lukashenko that is the only Russian support in the region? The defender from the expansion of NATO - an organization in respect of which there are many phobias in Russia? At least the Honeckers and Zhivkovs once abandoned to the mercy of fate were no more and no less sympathetic than the "dad".

Apparently, in Moscow it is far from being glad of the choice that the Minsk ruler is trying to impose on her. However, everything goes to the fact that he will have to do it.

Author - Deputy General Director of the Center for Political Technology
Alexey Makarkin

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