In the opposition

Elections to the Constitutional Court and Future

October 23, 2012 George Satarov

"Awesome sense of unpredictability of the result"

Igor Semennikov

The epigraph, which I wrote off from the wall of Facebook and related to the opposition’s coordination council that has just passed, was chosen at all by chance, but exactly because it is a small anthem. This is laid down in the root nature of our culture. On the surface - a tendency to order, predictability, certainty. And to dig - from time immemorial, since the time of primitive tribes, our culture has been permeated with chaos institutions, camouflaged, of course, thanks to which our social order retains the possibility of changes and adaptation. So this delight breaks out from time to time before chance - in sports, in creativity ... in the elections.

There is a deepest evolutionary meaning in this. Those who want to know more about this can go to http://www.indem.ru/satarov/povoosoizm.htm . I recommend that readers with limited leisure be limited to limiting myself to one of my old articles on the "hedgehog": http://www.ej.ru/?a=note&id=7555 . Short meaning: the main thing in the elections is the unpredictability of the result (which does not prevent attempts from predicting these results and even often guess). It is the role of the case as a result that the guarantee is not to fall into the trap of short -term rationality and the only way to resist the future with its unpredictability. If it seemed unconvincing to someone, I agree. The topic is complicated, and therefore read the source. Or maybe another consideration will seem convincing to someone: wherever you face predictable and controlled elections, you could make sure that you are dealing with political pathology and inevitable historical impasse. The fact that our regime has not yet rested against this impasse, indicates not the absence of a dead end, but the absence of working senses at this regime. If someone does not agree again, then let him remember what place he took Udaltsov in his forecasts. And the last: we often confuse unpredictability to an event with our amazing ability to explain any result existing.

And enough about it. I said about the most important thing. Fifteen years later, unpredictable elections again took place in Russia. And this is in high. And this should become important and conscious value. Think only as for a duel or in sports: the unpredictability of the result is valuable and is ensured by strict observance of the rules. And the fact of unpredictability confirms: the rules were implemented. And we will not go out against the results of these elections and will be proud of our election commission. Now about different considerations.

First. They said a lot that these were the election of the name of Navalny, darling the way to the presidential throne. If you follow this storyline, then the following is obvious: the victory in the first round became difficult. And Navalny Bykov would defeat in the second round - the grandmother said in two. And this is wonderful.

Second. The promotion did not guarantee the Royal Road in this election, although the majority of the winners of the general degree list were occupied by promoted figures. But not all, although a lot was done for this. Judge for yourself: there are only 30-40 people who are promoted there, and even more than 120 are names that are little-known to the general public, and there are just 30 places of passage. Ideal conditions. And Belov (Potkin) did not pass along the nationalist list, the last crawled Thor.

Third. The variety of assessments of the election results is amazing in the comments - from enthusiastic to abusive. Meanwhile, in the elections it is completely important not anyone wins, but as a result of which procedure. True, subject to the condition that this procedure is systematically repeated and guarantees most winners a defeat in the next election if it does not work for voters. I consider it useful to re -elect the CS once a year. This is normal with the highest political dynamics and with a relatively small circle of authority, clearly smaller than that of the authorities of a small island state. This will not damage performance, since there is clearly no total change, but the feeling of dependence on voters will enhance.

Fourth. They ask if they are soon quarreling? Darling, the chances are not small. The culture of the compromise is close to zero. As soon as a group of people gets access to something that acquires a shade of a political resource, how a fight for a resource begins. Among the winners there are people with experience of such fights and the collapse of successful political projects. True, there are enough young people, with the lack of such experience and otherwise related to such resources. I count on them.

Fifth. Thirty -five percent of the Muscovites from 170,000 registered are 59,500 people who clearly less went to all our rallies. So, not everyone who could be covered is covered. In addition, in Moscow, as a whole, seven percent of voters - five times less than Moscow’s representative office by voting for the Constitutional Court. Although 65 percent of the regions is also not bad. This means, by the way, that in the future protest will begin to grow in regions.

And the last. I believe that the past elections in the Constitutional Court are a useful undertaking. If you do what your enemy does not like, then you are on the right track. But I remain with my opinion: the election time is scheduled to unsuccessfully. This is a mistake. Elections in the regions are missed by the opposition, and now they are rare. Therefore, the main thing to start doing is to prepare for a new election from tomorrow. You can fool my head as much as you like. But everything that the opposition could now make is related to the participation in the elections. And all that she managed to lose is with non -participation. It is our participation in the elections that the authorities are most afraid of. And she knows what to be afraid of.

In short, on a good way!

Author - President of the Indem Foundation

Photos of RIA Novosti and Hedgehog