Serbian idyll

Publicists talk about a new cold war between Russia and the West, citing as an example the worsening relations with the United States and a number of European countries. Missile defense, Kosovo, the “Litvinenko-Lugovoy case” are really a set of issues on which Russia and the West take fundamentally different positions. Even more alarming is the fact that Western and Russian elites are increasingly speaking different languages: when some say “human rights activist”, others say “grant eater”, some defend “freedom of speech”, others denounce “irresponsible troublemakers”. But the Cold War is characterized by total confrontation, and now there are a number of issues on which the positions of Russia and the West are quite close. One of them is Serbian.

In 2000, the Kremlin sympathized with the authoritarian Milosevic, and the West with Kostunica, the protagonist of the first in a series of color revolutions. At the same time, Russia clearly did not understand that Milosevic had discredited himself in the eyes of his very different compatriots - some despised him as a loser who lost Kosovo, others did not like him because of the systemic conflict with the West. Milosevic fell out with both Serbian nationalist writers and the Orthodox Church (with which, by the way, Kostunica always had very decent relations). Even the death of the former president in a Hague prison did not make him a national hero - the Socialist Party he founded, as it has been in recent years, remains a peripheral political force with no chance of serious national success.

However, now the situation is different. If support for Milosevic was associated with the force of inertia of the 90s, now the approach of the Russian authorities to Serbian politicians competing for the presidency is purely pragmatic. Let us recall that in the first round of elections held last Sunday, the radical candidate Nikolic, who professes pronounced anti-Western and Serbian nationalist views, beat the incumbent president, Westerner and democrat Tadic, by four percentage points. A similar situation with these same politicians occurred in the last elections, so the outcome of the second round is far from predetermined. It depends on the position of voters who voted for the losing candidates - primarily for Kostunica's protégé, Minister Ilic, who finished third. These voters are rationally inclined to support Tadic, but their hearts are open to Nikolic's calls.

It is clear that the West is betting on Tadic - the election of a radical leader could lead to a systemic conflict between Serbia and the European Union. At the same time, it is clear that even under Nikolic, Serbia will not be able to prevent the declaration of Kosovo’s independence, if only because the absolute majority of Serbs are not going to fight for part of their territory, which the central government has not controlled for many years. However, Nikolic can help transform his country into an enclave of radical nationalism in the Balkans, fueled by strong emotions and a thirst for revenge - even if only in dreams. Tadic, most likely, will limit himself to only a formal expression of his fundamental rejection of Kosovo’s independence (recognition of independence would mean political death for any Serbian politician. Therefore, it is clear that the West is betting on Tadic and is ready to meet him halfway on the issue of introducing a visa-free regime between Serbia and the European Union, what Serbian intellectuals and businessmen, as well as numerous migrant workers, expect.

Now about the position of Russia, which plays a significant role in Serbia - its consistent reluctance to agree to the independence of Kosovo has led to a sharp increase in sympathy for it in this Balkan country. And support from the Kremlin could play a decisive role in the outcome of the second round. It is well known that Nikolic offers Russia an alliance and even the possibility of establishing a military base on Serbian territory. However, it is unclear what this base will do there—except perhaps to confront “NATO” Bulgaria or Hungary, with which Russia has developed quite constructive relations?

The Russian government needs a Serbian president who will ensure its oil interests in the region. Let us recall that it is planned to build the South Stream gas pipeline, which is fundamentally important for Gazprom, through Serbian territory, which will run along the bottom of the Black Sea from the Russian coast to the Bulgarian coast, and then through the Balkan Peninsula towards Italy. A preliminary agreement was reached with Bulgaria last week, when Putin and Medvedev visited Sofia; Now it’s Serbia’s turn. It should be noted that the election of Nikolic could lead not only to a conflict with the West, but also to a tough confrontation between the president and the government coalition, the main participants of which are the parties of Tadic and Kostunica. The prospects for any contracts in this situation will become extremely vague. In addition, the Bulgarians, under pressure from Europe, may back up, not wanting to participate in the same project with a country that could again become odious for the European Union. Hence Russia’s support for Tadic in exchange for a positive solution to the oil pipeline issue.

Therefore, on January 25, Vladimir Putin will receive Tadic and Kostunica, who will come to Moscow to sign an intergovernmental agreement on cooperation in the oil and gas sector. Specifically: Serbia sells the NIS oil company to Russia and authorizes the construction of part of the South Stream through its territory. Tadic’s party and a number of figures in Kostunica’s party are not delighted with this deal, but they don’t have to choose - just in case, Nikolic was also invited to Russia, but officially only for a meeting of the Duma international committee. However, if an agreement had not been reached, the level of the visit would have been significantly increased - after all, no one can forbid the Russian president to appear in front of television cameras with one of the leading Serbian politicians and give him the opportunity to earn several points that are so important for him on the eve of the second round. It is clear that such a scenario is now impossible - now Serbian TV channels will show the idyllic meeting between Putin and Tadic, demonstrating the situational coincidence of the priorities of Russia and the West on the issue of the outcome of the presidential elections in Serbia.

The author is vice-president of the Center for Political Technologies