Putin's ultimatum

The Russian president issued an ultimatum to both Kyiv and the West, which is trying to support Kyiv, but clearly does not know how to do this. True, this ultimatum was wrapped in such a rhetorical form that makes it possible for Western leaders, tired of the Ukrainian headache, to accept the Kremlin’s ultimatum, while hoping not to completely lose their face.

See for yourself. Putin not only confirmed his previous position on Ukraine - I do not recognize the current government in Kyiv as illegitimate - but also went further, announcing the emergence of a new state in place of Ukraine, the legitimacy of which he also called into question. Moreover, Putin has put forward his own conditions under which he is ready to deal with Kiev. These conditions are in fact Moscow’s demands not only regarding the Ukrainian course, but also how the Ukrainian state should be built - through changing the Constitution and a referendum, as well as through the adoption of the February 21 Agreement, returning Yanukovych to power. In fact, these are demands that can only be offered to a state under Russian protectorate or a Russian colony.

Putin also openly stated the remaining possibility of using a forceful scenario, obviously, if his demands are not met. But he also recalled Russia’s other instruments of influence on the Ukrainian situation, saying that Russia “will not stand aside if the Russian-speaking population begins to be persecuted,” recalling the price of gas and the Ukrainian debt. This is not the first time that Putin has said that he is ready to cooperate with the “legitimate” Ukrainian government, just as he cooperated with the Tymoshenko government. But it is clear that this cooperation is possible on the Kremlin’s terms.

According to the words, the Russian president made it clear to Kyiv that Russia is not going to let Ukraine out of its embrace. He gave the West the opportunity to take into account his rhetorical promises (not to annex Crimea occupied by Russian troops and not to send troops into Ukraine if this is not necessary) and consider the conflict over. In fact, the West has been asked to turn a blind eye to Moscow’s further actions to establish control over Ukraine. And even take part in the “normalization” of the Ukrainian situation together with Russia. It is possible that the Kremlin believes that the West is ready to repeat Munich 1938 and the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact.

Now the word is up to the liberal democracies - will they agree to take part in the strangulation of Ukraine or will they try to prevent this? Signals coming out of Berlin suggest that Germany may consider “normalization” in Ukraine with Russian participation to be the optimal scenario. I hope I'm wrong.