Hold Russia

Not so long ago, a group of expert Kremies was published by the Kremlin, which stated that the current Russian foreign policy is extremely successful. The country, they say, returned to the world arena as a great power, again became an important player in international affairs. It was necessary to be in Warsaw these days at the NATO summit in order to understand how true this is.

In the summit of one hundred and forty points, there are more than half of the summit - about Russia, which is from now on as the main threat of security and stability on the European continent. “Russia's aggressive actions, including provocative military activity ... Demonstrative willingness to achieve political goals with threats and even the use of force ... are a fundamental challenge,” the commander said. Well, these are the NATOs, some of the fans of the Rr-Rush Foreign Policy of Putin V.V. God himself and Washington himself ordered the drums of the Cold War and hate the poor Russian bear for his vastness and inescapable kindness. But here President Montenegro Milia Dzhukanovich, whose country has been particularly close ties with Russia for centuries, directly says that in the current situation, only joining the North Atlantic Alliance can guarantee the territorial integrity of his country. And the Minister of Defense of Sweden (a state that has professed the idea of ​​neutrality for almost two centuries) falls upon Russia for its “inappropriate behavior” and attempts to threaten nuclear weapons and also talks about the most close cooperation with NATO to confront Russian threats.

In addition to the members of the alliance, representatives of almost all European states arrived in Warsaw, and all of them, from Georgia to Finland, are convinced that only the Alliance can provide security guarantees ... from such a successful Russian foreign policy. For some reason, I recalled the famous phrase from Churchill's Fulton speech: “From Stettin in the Baltic to the Trieste on the Adriatic, an iron curtain fell on the continent. On the other side of the curtain, all the capital of the ancient states of Central and Eastern Europe - Warsaw, Berlin, Prague, Vienna, Budapest, Belgrade, Bucharest, Sofia. ” Today, Russia is already in complete solitude on the "Tu" side of the curtain.

In almost every speech, the leaders of the alliance indicate a clear causal relationship of what is happening now and the “successes” of Moscow in Ukraine. “There were no plans for the deployment of NATO forces,” said Jens Stoltenberg Secretary General of the Alliance, talking with a group of Russian journalists, “until Russia has not annexed Crimea and did not begin to destabilize the situation in the Donbass.” The main word of the summit was the word "restraint". The Atlantists are going to restrain our country. And we are talking about absolutely specific military measures.

Next year, multinational battalion tactical groups will appear in three Baltic states and Poland, numbering each of a thousand military personnel. In Poland, the bone will be made up of the Americans, in Latvia - Canadians, in Estonia - the British, in Lithuania - Germans. In Russia, they have already hastened to laugh at the dimensions of military presence in the domestic standards modest by domestic standards. However, there are few reasons for fun.

Firstly, these battalions should, in the event of a conflict, ensure the arrival of the NATO quick response forces that have grown markedly from the moment Vladimir Putin began to pursue his successful foreign policy. Secondly, and the main ones-the presence of these battalions guarantees that the leaders of the leading NATO states will immediately bring the 5th article of the Washington Treaty on collective self-defense if Moscow tries to repeat its successful Ukrainian experience. In addition, the US president promised that the American brigade (another 4,000 military personnel) will be located in Europe “on a rotational basis” and its weapons will be stored in advance. In Romania, a multinational brigade with Bulgarian participation will also be created.

But that's not all. The NATOs agreed on the summit on the strengthening of their naval groups in the Baltic and Black Seas (specific proposals in this subject will become known in the fall). I must say that all these decisions were known in advance. Moscow, playing ahead of schedule, announced the counter -ores - the deployment of three divisions and the tank army in a western direction. However, the NATOs said that they would not allow someone to prevent the freedom of movement in the airspace of the Alliance and during military operations. High -ranking NATO officials explained what exactly was being discussed.

The fact is that, deploying modern air defense systems-primarily the S-400 system, Russia actually creates useless (for the NATO, of course) zones in huge spaces. We are talking about a kind of "domes" over the Crimea, the Kaliningrad region, Kamchatka. The same actually useless zone was created over Syria. Russian air defense systems not only cover a significant part of airspace in the Baltic and Black Sea regions. They can prevent the transfer of strategic reserves from the United States (which is why Russian air defense in Kamchatka is mentioned). NATO officials did not specify exactly how they are going to counteract Russia. However, the deputy general of NATO Secretary General, Alexander Vershbou, very clearly stated: "It will be necessary to restrain Russia or defeat." Obviously, we are most likely about the deployment of large -range cruise missiles on ships and aircraft. Which, of course, will lead to a new stage of the arms race, which is already in full swing ...

Jens Stoltenberg Good ten times suggested leaving the cold war of history. But if all this is not a new cold war, then what is it? However, the prominent Russian expert Dmitry Train (he spoke at the expert forum summit in parallel) also believes that the term “Cold War” is inaccurately conveys the current situation. He indicates that, unlike the confrontation between the USSR and the West, the forces of the opposing parties are now too inequal. And this, according to the theory, pushes the weak, that is, Russia, to quick risky actions, such as the annexation of Crimea. In addition, in the previous Cold War, the rules of the game and “red lines” were known, for which neither the same side interceded. Therefore, the expert believes, the most important today is the de -escalation of military tension between Russia and NATO, a serious conversation about the new rules of peaceful coexistence.

But not one of the parties is ready for this. Talking with us, Jens Stoltenberg, in principle, agreed that military confidence, preventing possible incidents during military activities in the sea and airspace should become the subject of dialogue between Russia and NATO (the need for dialogue with Russia in Warsaw was also periodically remembered). However, he emphasized that at the same time to leave aside the question of the annexation of Crimea and actions in the southeast of Ukraine is impossible. And this, we will be frank, a dead end.

“Today we have no positive agenda,” stated the Russian ambassador to NATO Alexander Grushko in an interview with Kommersant. It can be assumed that the upcoming meeting of the Russia-NATO Council will soon be reduced, like the previous one, to the exchange of cobbles.

These days in Warsaw they said a lot about the fact that the current summit is a turning point, that it means a certain “new reality”. However, upon careful consideration, this new reality looks very much like the old one. The one from which both Europe and the whole world seemed to have safely got rid of a quarter of a century ago. She, this reality, returns. And you need to blame the Kremlin here. What is happening is a direct consequence of Russian foreign policy successes.

Warsaw


Photo: 1. Poland. 07/08/2016. The summit of the heads of state and governments of NATO countries in Warsaw. Markus Schreiber/ Ar/ TASS
2. Poland. Warsaw. July 9, 2016. At the summit of the heads of state and governments of the NATO participating countries. Nikolai Lazarenko/ Press Service of the President of Ukraine/ TASS

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