Role of Lukashenko

A participant in our “After” project, political scientist Mikhail Vinogradov on the Y ouTube channel “Living Nail” says :

“I still think that the role of Alexander Lukashenko here is apparently somewhat exaggerated. Alexander Lukashenko contributes to this all the more, since we see that he is such a main frontman of what is happening. Just yesterday, telegarm channels wrote that in Moscow a decision was made to gradually forget what happened, forget the rebellion, and switch attention. We see today how Russian and Belarusian leaders themselves sabotage this own plan and feel the need to continue talking, analyzing, and explaining what happened.

I think that Lukashenko was somewhat important as an external guarantor, partly veiling the absence of Vladimir Putin in the negotiation process. A certain status player appears. This could be, I don’t know, Erdogan or someone else. But on the plus side, of course, Lukashenko is trying to sell his own role in the negotiation process. <…>

It is clear that Lukashenko is brighter, more detailed, more imaginative, and loves to tell the details of any political event longer than others. That's the way he's built. Lukashenko is, in principle, a man who partly learns his thoughts from his words and thinks out loud. And therefore, today’s Lukashenko thinking out loud about what happened, of course, creates the feeling or illusion that it was Lukashenko who was the one who saved or collapsed the situation.

I think that, after all, the attitude towards Lukashenko in the Russian corridors of power is more ambivalent, more ironic. He can be perceived rather as a symbol of certain guarantees, as a mediator, but it is unlikely that he fully speaks the language that is understandable to the Russian political class.”