Different times have come

So.

The US crisis, the sweet necessity of which patriots have been shouting for so long, has arrived - and what a crisis! Where are the cries of delight?

The crisis of “vertical Russia,” the sweet necessity of which the Democrats have been dreaming of for so long, has arrived—and promises to be crushing. Where are the cries of delight?

There are none. And this is understandable: showing the “teacher” a cookie is one thing. But the prospect of being left without a teacher is a little different.

This applies to both the “Russia-USA” situation and the “opposition” situation in Russia.

America is a mess. The problem will be ours

Russia has been helping the United States economically for years - not voluntarily, but forcedly, by participating in the global financial System, where the dollar was the reserve currency. Everyone was shouting about this.

For years, Russia lived at the expense of the United States - something it preferred to keep silent about and not even think about. It's not just about computers, medicines and money. These are details and this is not philanthropy. They paid for the computers in full-fledged petrodollars, received... Well, yes, received in the end - at the expense of the United States, of course. After all, the United States is the engine of the world economy, it fueled China, and China, as if in tow, dragged oil-rich Russia. Cycle in nature.

But even more important is the military-political roof of the United States, under which Russia lived and lives.

All those topics that we tend to quickly mutter through clenched teeth, like a meaningless ritual text (well, there’s “the fight against international terrorism,” non-proliferation of nuclear weapons,” etc. boring gum), were of no interest to anyone in Russia. That's right - because we looked at the world from behind the broad back of Texas Walker.

If Walker leaves - and he will have to leave - we (Russia) will suddenly learn that these topics are not at all empty. When you wash your hands, you don’t notice and skimp on this task. If you get hepatitis, you’ll notice and regret not washing it.

“When you could lift your snout up, you would see that these acorns are growing on a mine.”

Russia tore the roots of the American oak tree more selflessly than anyone else. But others (China and Europe) also tried their best. Our common efforts were in vain - the oak tree does not fall because of our efforts. It falls because the economic roots of the oak tree themselves have rotted away. The oak tree turned out to be its own pig!

The myth of US invincibility has been dispelled. Iran swears in their faces - they turn away, and that’s it. Russia grabbed their hand in Georgia and threw them away - the United States limited itself to grumbling. Friend Chavez spits on them (on their shoes for now) - they just flinch.

The myth about the “unipolar world” has always been just a myth. The foreign policy of China, Russia, and India has always been independent of the United States; even NATO countries (France) “allowed themselves” to ignore American “advice.” But people believed in the unipolar myth and willingly tilted at its windmills. Now there is nothing to believe in - this world CLEARLY no longer exists. The mill collapsed.

The myth about the “intelligence” of the American elite has also been dispelled. Probably, this elite, operating in an open society, direct competition and free media (all conditions for happiness!) are no stupider than their colleagues in Europe, Russia, China, India - but not smarter either. The set of nonsense that led to the US crisis is on the conscience of the President, Congress, Wall Street, a dozen Nobel economists who advised the government, etc. They were all worthless. This is where the “pig” is that blew up the oak tree! We wanted the best, but it turned out just like ours...

Or maybe they are not to blame for anything - it’s just that the time of crisis has come, the time of skinny cows, and no decisions could seriously prevent it.

Don't know. I’m afraid that NONE of the charlatans who call themselves “analysts, political scientists, economists” knows. I know they don't know ANYTHING. And the fact that I myself don’t know anything doesn’t even need to be specifically declared - from the text, as they say, it’s already obvious.

In general, the myths about the omnipotence, intelligence (if you are so rich, why are you so stupid?) and the unconditional success of the United States have collapsed.

America is a mess. Great.

Now the problem will be OURS.

The problem of the new EXTERNAL MOTOR for our economy, because the design does not provide for an internal motor.

And the political, geopolitical problems from which America shielded us (at least psychologically) are now OURS.

If Obama’s weakened America (only Sarah Palin doubts that he will be president) “leaves Asia,” the problems will fall on Russia’s head. What a blessing it is to have a multipolar world! We are finally proud and independent - a patriot's dream has come true!

Well, pay for the pleasure, guys!

Pay - for starters, WITH FEAR.

If we no longer have a common enemy with Iran, then who are we and Iran from now on? Two countries claiming hegemony in the Caspian Sea.

If the American Elephant in Donkey's Skin no longer stands between China and Russia, then who are we and China? Two countries: one belongs to Siberia, the other is developing Siberia.

Islamic Fundamentalism: If the visible American enemy disappears, who will they name as the next enemy? Is there such a country - Christian, but at the same time semi-Islamic, an ideal nutrient broth for Islamists?

We'll see this (and much more) soon.

But you can already shake with fear.

From the warmth of a unipolar world, we were kicked out to the crossroads of a multipolar world. Goodbye, American language teacher! Hello, adulthood! And adult life smiles: “Hello, kids!”

And also about the economic consequences of the US recession.

The US, despite the recession, will obviously remain the world's largest economy - even if its dollar expansion collapses.

But here’s what’s interesting: from the American crisis, which has become a global crisis, who will suffer MORE - the USA or the “rest of the world”?

Again, I don't know.

But I know that the answer is NOT OBVIOUS.

It is quite possible that when the financial bubble, the real estate bubble and the insurance bubble burst, the US economy will deflate the most.

Then, very soon, the United States becomes the second largest economy in the world after China, and further down.

While the thin one tightens his belt, the fat one will die - at least from a stroke.

But something else is also possible: while the fat man dries out, the thin man will die.

The financial and real estate markets will collapse. But the high-tech market is not (or will blow away relatively less). And even funnier: with low oil prices, when the freebies of hedge funds disappear, what if the real manufacturing sector in the US begins to recover?

But China will begin to deflate as production begins to migrate back to the United States.

Possible option? Some economists will say - and explain with numbers in hand - that it is impossible. The rest will say - and also explain - that it is possible.

In general: either the US will be blown away MORE than China. And then the crisis will accelerate the loss of American economic primacy. It is not the success of China, but simply the failure of the United States, even greater than that of China, that will automatically put the Celestial Empire in first place in a declining world.

Or China will be blown away more than the USA! And then the crisis WILL SAVE the USA from becoming the No. 2 power. It is not the successes of the USA, but its failure - against the backdrop of an EVEN GREATER FAILURE of China - that will again push the USA forward. This is how the United States broke away in the 1970s from Japan, which was nipping at its heels.

In any case, no matter whose recession is stronger - American or Chinese - our export economy is losing tugs. An American, Chinese (and European) tugboat is lost. Well, we will run aground, and much more firmly than America or China. For example, when the Dow Jones falls by 3-4%, our RTS falls by 20%. I'm afraid that with a recession there will be approximately the same ratio.

However, no matter how things develop in the economy, US political dominance will end. In the near future - and for a long time. They'll get tired of worrying about Georgia—Georgia's problems are too big. I don't care about fat - I wish I could live. They, on the wise advice of Mr. Ahmadinejad, will take care of themselves. “What do I care about you, about everyone, and what do you care about me?”

And we will deal, I repeat, with Iran and Pakistan. Or - if you prefer - they will take care of us. Who likes it more?

Time to straighten your fingers

The freebie is over.

The tale of the administrative fisherman and the oil and gas fish is told to the end. Down to nothing.

We've given in.

They showed up in Courchevel, Tskhinvali, Rublevki, Sochi, in glamorous magazines and glamorous-patriotic history textbooks for high school.

It's time to pay for what you drink and eat.

Time to bend your fingers - and time to hide your shaking fingers in your pocket. We enjoyed the first time for 8 years. Well, it’s time and honor to know that different times have come.

I don't blame the authorities. During this crisis, in my opinion, it became obvious that the quality of economic decisions in Russia is as stupid (or as not stupid) as in the United States. They don't know a damn thing what to do - and we know as much as they do. And no more.

It was impossible to avoid the crisis: the Russian Federation is not an independent country. A bubble was inflating all over the world. It was called the US financial bubble. He also cheated in Russia.

Here Moscow is a kind of copy of the United States inside the Russian Federation.

It's all the same - a real estate bubble, a stock market bubble. And it bursts even faster, funnier, with an even nastier sound than in the USA.

True, unlike the USA, we do not have high-tech. But high-tech does not exist in countries with raw materials. Doesn't match!

Hamlet: Oh, so you are a decent girl?

Ophelia: Milord!

Hamlet: And you are good-looking?

Ophelia: What does your honor mean?

Hamlet: That if you are decent and good-looking, your decentness has nothing to do with your beauty.

Yes, oil beauty is in no way compatible with technological decency: “And beauty will sooner drag decency into the pool than decency will correct beauty.”

We did not live on oil rent.

A system of administrative rent was built on top of it.

In the context of a slowdown in the global economy and falling oil prices, the foundation is disappearing from under the administrative rent. But administrative rentiers don’t want to tighten their bellies.

Other rentiers don’t want to shrink either - “office plankton”, glamorous oil girls, all up from their knees and feeling like it’s Russia at the weekend.

People have loosened their grip psychologically and are ready for a long period of happily free consumption in the great Russia. People got up from their knees - and immediately got someone else’s knee in the groin!

We didn't wait. It's a shame, listen!

What a shame!

The Administrative Raw Materials System is doomed to collapse. But no one will say where and with what roar. Nobody knows.

As you know, there is no politics in the country. There are security agencies, but the political security cushions have long been thrown out. There are no - unlike in 1998 - those who could soften the impact of their foreheads on the windshield. And it’s too late to call them. There is no time.

Of course, there is not a single legitimate, systemic way to change power - the Duma was elected until 2011, the president until 2012. Yes, and re-elections will not change anything, just as they did not change in 2007-2008. TODAY there is not even a HINT of extra-systemic opposition (the kitchen match of grandmaster K. with writer L. should not be considered “oppositional activity”).

In this sense, the government protected itself. But ONLY this.

The people are submissive. Disunited. Inert. Imperial. Habitually hates “Americans.” And so on and so forth and so on.

What to worry about?

Nothing? The people will endure everything - where will they go! And enough of this cheap literary nonsense with “senseless and merciless” - let’s learn at least something else from Pushkin...

But this is no longer literature.

In the 1980s, people were also the same. Submissive, indifferent, disconnected, etc. But what happened happened! Why? Yes, if only because the people wanted to eat - and the last thing was removed from under their noses. Moreover, at that time the Soviet people were not generally corrupted by the habit of “the life of a white man.” And now we’re used to it! We've already gotten used to it - this stupid thing won't last long. And, as Mr. Tocqueville claims, it is always more difficult to wean yourself off the habit.

If we had a civil society, it can be easily predicted that it - society - in conditions of a) democracy, b) economic crisis and c) powerful patriotic sentiments will easily find a reliable way out. Fascism - what is more reliable! Fascism is the last stage in the development of a resentful people's democracy.

ALL the semantics, the entire discourse of fascism is there. It blooms and smells.

Weimar metaphor (“get up from our knees”), imperial syndrome, “Wall Street speculators are to blame,” “Germany, wake up!”

1929-1933rd. Exactly like a “classic of political thought,” as someone on Ekho Moskvy called “Adolf Aloizovich.” And a classic would be found - there is no village without a classic...

But there is no democracy. There are no elections. There is no classic and his party. And everything in history does not exactly repeat itself.

How will it happen again this time?

The only chance for change is still “nanotechnology of power”, its nanorebirth.

And I think this nanorebirth will work.

A vertical for prosperous times is not a vertical for you! “You know me from the good side - you know me from the bad side.”

Our Vertical will play with its nodules. So already... What?! Do you think these are “nodules”? These are smiling dimples...

Of course, the opposite option is also possible.

Feeling friendly nudges from Iran; waking up at night thinking about Islamists; dying of acute financial thirst; hearing the hot breath of the sharply patriotic masses in the back of their heads - the Kremlin will want to swing to the West from all this. When it comes up, you rush to drink from the spit-stained well - the only problem is that the well itself will become shallow. The well has no time for us and our reflections - he would rather get hold of the water himself...

One thing is for sure. The economic crisis will be perceived by society in Russia as proof of the falsity of the very idea, the very PRINCIPLE of the Western model. (Not to mention the fact that Dorenko and Shevchenko and Kurginyan will explain that the entire crisis is an American infection, like AIDS. And the people will believe - how could one not believe it, because the crisis really began there).

Economics and politics are not mathematics. What is the criterion of truth in economics? Not logic. Not deduction. The criterion of truth is utilitarian - practice. Induction.

As long as gastric practice proves the advantages of the Western model, people believe in it (belching curse words about the West after dinner).

Well, what if gastric practice shows that the Western model has led the whole world and our loved ones into a trap, into a crisis? So that’s where she belongs - in the trash can of History, you understand!

This is how they reasoned in 1929-1933 in Germany, and Hitler appeared.

And in the USA - and the “new course” appeared.

And in the USSR - and they affirmed the idea of ​​​​their PRINCIPLE superiority over the West (they fall, we rise. They forgot to talk about the famine).

And in Europe there are “popular fronts”.

And now?

Who will NOW look for “alternative paths” for peace?

Islamists? White Nazis? Or some kind of “new course” will be invented by Mr. Obama (oh, that doesn’t seem like something!).

And what untrodden corpses... peed... trails... will the Russian authorities discover?

* * *

Or maybe that one... Will he blink?

Well, the crisis... Well, the stock market... Big deal! Or maybe this won’t affect the real sector? After all, there is no such damn recession yet...

Perhaps it won’t happen? Well, what did we do to deserve it? Nothing, right? So maybe it won't?

The USA will hold out - and we, to celebrate, will continue to put buttons under the teacher’s seat, crow about a “multipolar world” and believe that “everything will be fine”, the freebie will be widely reproduced? Well, what does it cost her? A?

“Naw, Shura, saw…”