In the economy

The price of words

July 16, 2009 Matvey Ganapolsky

This topic could only be related to the economy. But it is related to politics.

She is much wider than the event itself.

In Ankara, representatives of the five countries of the six participants in the Nabukko project signed an intergovernmental agreement on the supply of natural gas from the Caspian basin to Europe bypassing Russia. These countries: Austria, Hungary, Türkiye, Bulgaria and Romania. Germany did not take part in signing, since it is not a transit country, but it will participate. There were representatives of 20 countries, was the head of the European Commission, Jose Manuel Barrosa, Iraq Prime Minister, US special representative in Eurasia Richard Morningstar, Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili.

The length of the future “Nabukko” is 3300 km, Europe will annually receive 15 through the territory of Turkey, and then up to 31 billion cubic meters of natural gas from the countries of the Middle East and the Caspian region. The gas pipeline passing through Turkey, Bulgaria, Romania and Hungary with a gas storage in Austria threatens to become an important alternative to energy supplies from Russia, for whom to date to provide up to 30% of European gas needs. So they write economic publications.

The word "threatens" here is not by chance. The Nabukko project was invented in 2002, then forgotten, but the story of disabling Europe from gas, Russian-Ukrainian gas scandals, in which economics and politics were so closely intertwined-all this made an indelible impression on Europe. And it was after this story that they seriously started talking about energy security.

“Nabukko” is a direct demonstration of the sequence of Europe in its own protection, even if this defense costs $ 8 billion.

Of course, such a grand undersics are not no doubt. They are economic and political.

Economic is that the needs of Europe in gas are basically covered. And if you perceive the "Nabukko" as a insurance, then this is the very expensive this insurance. After all, it seems that both Ukraine and Russia made the necessary economic conclusions from the history of disconnects. And if we assume what they did, then the question arises-and why, after all, “Nabukko” goes to Europe? It would be much more logical if the project were deployed east, to China, where the need for gas will only grow. But everything goes west, and there is a doubt that Europeans will be able to spend these additional 15 billion cubic meters, which “Nabukko” will pump only at the initial stage, and then 31 billion, when everything works in full force.

And here is the second question. So far, gas suppliers are Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan. They are halfway to China. Of course, they are concerned about the energy safety of Europe, but not to the extent to keep their gas in reserve. Moreover, Russia announced the plans to build a gas branch to China. All these questions remain.

And in their context, it is impossible not to consider the political component of the project. She is striking.

At one time, the Kremlin spoke about energy as the energy weapons of Russia, which "rises from the knees." As for the “getting up”, they joked a lot, but the fact that the “weapon” acts is very soon convinced.

The ironic smiles of Vladimir Putin, detailed explanations to the West about Ukraine that “there is no money - do not buy”, “they have not paid us for the last six months” - all this was listened to the puzzled Europe.

Formally, Mr. Putin was right. But the rights are right as the Pharisees are right.

In the moments of the deceptive imperial triumph, it is somehow forgotten that Russia is the successor of the USSR and therefore not only owns any different real estate abroad, which used to belong to everyone, but should also be responsible for the troubles of its old Soviet neighbors. Interestingly, if Britain supplied India gas, and Delhi could not pay off, would London gas with a preliminary loud notification about this on the first Bibisi channel?

But Mr. Putin, who previously stated that the collapse of the USSR was the main tragedy of the twentieth century, apparently decided to demonstrate how really tragic to exist without the Soviet homeland. And at the same time, once again explain Yushchenko that it is not worthwhile to love Bandera. The fact that 99 percent of Ukrainian citizens consider Bandera a criminal is just like Mr. Putin himself-the Russian prime minister did not bother. The amazing psychology of Mr. Putin: to believe that the peoples of the former USSR in 2009 will love the Moscow stick and slapers are his branded amazing style. The Putin Kremlin always hints that Georgia is good without Saakashvili, and Ukraine without Yushchenko. But in these countries he achieves the opposite - they understand that Moscow loves Georgia without Georgians, and Ukraine without Ukrainians. And even in a fucker, punishing someone else's, the Kremlin punishes its citizens. After all, the fact that planes in Tbilisi do not fly is not Saakashvili’s punishment, he does not need to go to Moscow. Georgians who have not yet forgotten about two hundred years of friendship with Russia, who hire Russian nannies, have been punished so that their young children know the Russian language. Russian citizens are punished, who, in violation of the Constitution, finds the right to free movement. The President of the Georgian Academy of Sciences, a member of the Russian Academy of Sciences, complained to me how humiliating he expects an invitation from Moscow to get a visa and go to another important meeting to his academic friends to Russia.

We must definitely say - these actions are criminal. Friendship with the neighbors was not lined up by us and not for us to ruin it. And the gentlemen of the filmmakers, who joyfully presented to the Moscow International Festival of the Georgians for their beautiful cinema, was useful to ask what ways the Georgians got to Moscow for the award. Although, they know how well.

It is amazing that the Criminal Code has an article “For inciting ethnic growth”, but there is no article for its real embodiment.

And then it is appropriate to exclaim, quoting Mr. Putin himself: "Where is the landings?!"

But back to the gas pipeline.

It only seems that Europe is old, stupid and slow.

Everything was heard and understood.

“Nabukko” is a clear and unambiguous answer to Europe to all Russian words and actions.

Apparently, Vladimir Putin had to more carefully think through his propaganda escapades, even if they were designed exclusively for his citizens. It seems that the current prime minister did not expect his "energy weapon" to shoot in the opposite direction.

When the gas was disconnected to Ukraine, it was coldly offering Europe to deal with Kiev itself, Europe was polite, but did not forget humiliation.

And now “Nabukko” puts a fat point in such humiliations and makes it clear to understand who the strategic winner.

Europe knows - in order to defeat Russia, it does not need to be conflicting with it, you just need to show an alternative in any question. So the USSR fell apart, in the same way, any Russian monopolism collapses. Obama came to Russia with this. This is the diplomacy of the 21st century - you are offered to go together, but without any preliminary conditions, compensation, looking into the eyes and assurances in friendship.

“Nabukko” is the end of the legend that Europe will die without Russian gas. And then I would not die, and now even more so.

Once Mr. Putin ironically commented on the idea of ​​“Nabukko”, explaining to Europe that she does not know how to count, because there is no Azerbaijani gas to fill “Nabukko”. But the one who laughs the last laughs: the gas pipeline will fill not only Azerbaijani, but also Turkmen gas. And this is another, now a purely political defeat of Moscow, because there were Russian plans to buy up the entire Turkmen gas, which was westerly in order to undertake the idea of ​​Nabukko. But these plans failed back in March 2009, when it was not possible to sign an appropriate agreement with Turkmenia in Moscow. Now, I think, he is finally buried.

As you know, the best reaction of the Kremlin to any failure is a childish resentment. This enchanting and extremely important skill was demonstrated immediately: President Dmitry Medvedev, on the day of signing the contract, makes a visit to South Ossetia, performs there with rigid replicas to Saakashvili. So to speak, an asymmetric answer is a favorite Russian manner. Medvedev with a visit demonstrates the groundlessness of Europe’s hopes for the return of the annexed territories of Georgia. And the Kremlin has something to be offended: from now on, Georgia becomes a “fundamental transiter”, which means that its income from gas transit will increase many times and that it completely comes out from the gas influence of Russia.

Of course, it is unlikely that “Nabukko” was built to protect Georgia from the actions of Russia, but the story is a cunning lady. And sometimes the finale of any undertaking is much wider than it was in the plan.

For example, now Georgia has levers of pressure on Moscow. Tbilisi can raise the question of the dependence of the return of the territories and transit of Russian gas to Armenia (recall the planes - a boycott is so boycott!), Because it is through it that the gas pipeline thread goes. The party can be played brilliantly - Georgia interrupts supplies, but Armenia does not remain without gas, it begins to supply the same “Nabukko”. And these will already be real funerals of Russian influence in the Caucasus.

But that's not all. It is difficult to say whether Russia had plans for a new war with Georgia, but after signing the Nabukko agreement, they become extremely ghostly. The paradox is obvious: Georgia did not enter into united Europe or NATO, but, it turns out, a simple stroke of the pen under a serious economic contract can make more for the country's security than any military blocs. And the new march-cutting of the glorious 58th Army on Tbilisi will now be undertaken not as aggression against Georgia, but as an aggression against all of Europe, with its gas pipe and its energy safety.

Of course, the Nabukko project awaits many dangers - economic and political. But the United Europe proved the ability to carry out gigantic international projects, for example, the construction of a large adron collider worth $ 10 billion. Now he works, then no, but to slander about his breakdowns is the destiny of the powerless.

Yes, "Nabukko" will be built. Yes, this is a political and economic loss. But it would be the last stupidity to start a new wave of counter -propaganda hysteria, thereby aggravating it.

Moscow should only blame itself for everything: to assure Europe in its reliable partnership and at the same time offer it to solve Russian problems - whether this was not this by the beginning of the end of the Russian “energy weapons”. And anti -Western rhetoric and all kinds of whipped words and expressions performed by Vladimir Putin only accelerated the process.

And the last.

Of course, it can be assumed that Europe carries out such a giant project and spends 8 billion exclusively in order to "wound and humiliate Russia." Moreover, I think that this is how Moscow will explain to its citizens the idea of ​​building “Nabukko”.

But this is not new.

The Russian leadership is poorly understood the price of its words.

Photo by RIA Novosti