Irreversible expansion

The recent celebration of the 60th anniversary of the People's Republic of China symbolically coincided with the strange visit of Prime Minister Putin to Beijing, as a result of which negotiations concluded highly enslaving agreements for Russia on cooperation in the energy and other sectors of the economy. By the will of the current authoritarian government, Russia’s behavior looks like an unambiguous invitation to the “Chinese monster” for widespread expansion in relation to itself. The humiliating ingratiation that turns into begging on the part of senior Moscow officials before the Celestial Empire confirms the worst fears of opponents of the “new Asian future” for Russia.

In debates about Chinese expansionism, one often hears arguments about the historically peaceful and good-neighborly properties of the yellow civilization in coexistence with the peoples around it. However, everything is not so simple - both in the ancient history of China and in its current being. To be convincing, we will take a short excursion into the periods of the history of the Celestial Empire that interest us and, as far as the scale of the short journalistic work allows, we will draw the appropriate conclusions.

RELIGION AND RACE

Nothing in the history of China contributed more to imperial growth than religion, which united and leveled the entire diverse sea of ​​​​people. Moreover, the idea of ​​God is unknown to the Chinese. Back in the 11th century BC. The Shang (Yin) Empire was destroyed by the Principality of Zhou. Having become an empire after the victory, Zhou advanced its borders to the sea in the east, to the Yangtze in the south and to the desert in the northwest, thereby creating the territorial core of the future Celestial Empire. It was with Zhou that human sacrifices were banned and the cult of Heaven was gradually introduced, which officially existed in China until the Revolution of 1911, and in fact until the victory of the Communists in the Civil War in 1949. It's almost the 31st century.

Decisive for the development of Chinese civilization was that the cult of Heaven was immediately declared racially and ethnically neutral. The fact that almost the entire population of China now belongs to the yellow race is explained by the absence of theories of racial superiority in its imperial history. Before and after Confucius, belonging to China was determined, first of all, by belonging to its civilization. How strikingly this distinguishes Asia from Christian Europe, which throughout its long history has been painfully self-reflective about religion, nation, and race.

There is no precise historical data as to when the Cult of Heaven ceased to be an active religion and became an imperial tradition. It was this circumstance that greatly contributed to the transformation of China into a geographical civilization, from which it follows that the Chinese, whether he was a Taoist, Confucian or Buddhist (and even a Muslim or Christian), continued to remain a representative of his yellow civilization. Presumably, the Chinese finally became Chinese during the reign of the Han Dynasty (206 BC - 220 AD), although already in Zhou China, which existed from the 11th century. BC to the 3rd century BC (almost 8 centuries), the Celestial Empire owes its civilizational identity. It was during his era that both Taoism and Confucianism arose (5th and 6th centuries BC). The latter received the general Chinese significance of religions.

China over the centuries, expanding in its imperial expansion, reached natural borders (or natural barriers) and found itself surrounded by seas, mountains, deserts or steppes, which gave its peoples the opportunity to fight each other for hegemony in relative isolation from the outside world. The abundance of water and fertility of the Great Plain allowed the ancient Chinese to create a highly developed civilization, which required the diversion of huge numbers of people from production into the sphere of free cultural pursuits, and provided the conditions for a population explosion. Thanks to this development, China easily dissolved any foreign conquerors. For example, in 316 AD. a total of 40,000 nomadic Huns conquered all of northern China, took both of its capitals and captured two emperors. But their children have already become Chinese. Following the Huns, other nomads, the Muyuns, came to China and defeated it. In just one generation, they were completely colonized and were defeated by a new wave of nomads - the Tabgachs. In the 5th century, the Tabgach Khan accepted the title of Chinese emperor, prohibited the use of his native language, the customs of his people, as well as Tabgach names. When the Mongols began the conquest of China, split into several parts, in the 13th century, its total population reached 100 million people, while the population of the entire united Mongolia barely reached 1 million. The Mongols, having defeated and united China in the 14th century, tried (like other nomadic conquerors before them: the Khitans and Jurchens) to preserve themselves, but the temptations of civilization and the understanding that only their own assimilation can allow them to maintain power over the vast human sea and vast territory will always turned out to be stronger. The descendants of the Jurchens, the Manchus, who founded the last dynasty of foreign origin, the Qing (1616-1911), in China, took into account many of the mistakes of their predecessors and therefore banned mixed marriages, introduced into law the preservation of many of their customs (including names) in order to avoid complete assimilation, but and they nevertheless became Chinese.

So, the most general conclusion from the above is that the Chinese do not have religious and, in general, racial and national prejudices for wide northern expansion. However, there is no political idea (for example, communist) that would guide them as a special civilizing mission. Rather, a forced search for living space for one and a half billion people on a crowded piece of the Asian continent. Is this a sufficient incentive? After all, as we have seen, the Chinese, rather, themselves became the object of expansion rather than being its initiators. This is, of course, true, but the second half of the 20th century changed a lot - both in the very imperial being of China and in the world around the Middle Kingdom. Mao's communism and subsequent limited market reforms changed not only the civilizational face of China, but also contributed to a serious change in the role and place of the Celestial Empire in the modern world. The former historical and civilizational restrictions no longer apply.

FORCED EXPANSIONISM

It seemed expedient for the new generation of post-Soviet authorities to adopt the Chinese model of reforms, the attractiveness of which is due to the preservation of the monopoly of political power in the hands of the Chinese Communist Party, and to make the economy as manageable and at the same time market-based as possible. Undoubtedly, the doctrine of Deng Xiaoping, implemented in the PRC, is specifically Chinese (one and a half billion population, hierarchical mentality and Asian tradition) and is unsuitable for multicivilization Russia. However, the current Russian leaders, deeply ignorant of cultural and historical issues, cannot understand such a civilizational difference. In this they are similar to their predecessors in the second half of the 80s, when the members of the Politburo of the CPSU Central Committee who began perestroika pursued the only goal - saving the dying Soviet system. It seemed to them that by trying to implement the “Chinese miracle” in Soviet Russia (to revive the planned economy and improve the backward military-industrial complex), they would also be able to maintain control over political power. The result is well known - the USSR ceased to exist. Moreover, this outcome was natural and historically inevitable.

The Chinese communists at one time took the most seemingly easy, but also dangerous path. They divided the country into two economic regimes, in which the small (market) was designed to feed the large (distributive). At the end of this path there is a split in the state, a division of power, officials, punitive agencies and the army into two hostile camps. This split inevitably leads to a civil war, the likes of which were quite numerous in Chinese history.

In general, understanding this, the Chinese leadership will be forced to turn much more decisively to expansionism - geopolitical, economic, territorial. Encouraging the departure of excess labor resources (from the distribution part of the economy) beyond the borders of the metropolis in order to remove the danger of social conflict is the main motive of the Chinese authorities in order to maintain stability in the Celestial Empire itself. Of course, Russia with its empty and undeveloped spaces (especially in Siberia and the Far East) is the very first and desired goal of this expansion. Undoubtedly, the PRC leadership will strive for direct possession of Russian resources - oil, gas, metals, timber, water and many others. Moreover, they do not need Russian labor resources, nor Russian capital, nor (by and large) the Russian authorities - the source of corruption and permitting red tape - to exploit the deposits. They have their own money, and their own countless workers, and their own managers. Russians are a hindrance for them, a burden in all their large-scale undertakings. The Chinese are quite capable of building factories, roads and cities - everything that is necessary to divert excess labor resources from the overcrowded metropolis to nearby colonies.

Despite individual publications in the Russian press, we still do not really know the real essence of the agreements with China reached in Beijing during Putin’s last visit. It is only clear that those 200 projects proposed for joint implementation with the PRC are unilaterally beneficial to the Chinese side. The Russian interests are a group of close comrades of the prime minister in the raw material lobby. In addition to traditional oil and gas, China intends to extract resources of the most strategic importance in Eastern Siberia and the Far East: from polymetallic ores to magnesites. It would seem, why not give all these projects to Siberian and other Russian entrepreneurs for implementation? The answer is simple: they will strengthen themselves and want greater and now prohibited rights. It's safer with the Chinese. They do not (yet) claim political power in the region.

Are there threats to Chinese imperial growth, primarily within itself, that could change the inevitability of expansion in relation to the autarky weakened in recent years and the crisis of a depopulated Russia?

It is commonly mistakenly believed that China's national problems are the most dangerous source of threat to stability and possible collapse of the state. Perhaps this is not true. Despite all their severity (Tibet, Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region), these problems, due to their insignificant quantitative scale, are not capable of blowing up China from the inside. Judge for yourself.

There are 56 nationalities living in China, 92% are Han Chinese (about one billion two hundred million). All other minorities number no more than 100 million people, of which the problematic Tibetans (5.4 million) and Uighurs (8.4 million) do not amount to even 14 million. This impressive absolute figure, however, does not look so frightening against the background of the overall Chinese population. The reserve for suppressing any discontent is much more significant.

The separatist protest of the Tibetans or the same Uyghurs would only have significance with significant support from the outside, from the same West. However, the latter prefers not to quarrel with China over national problems (remember the performances in Tibet during last year’s Olympics). For the Christian West, this is a foreign civilization environment, the concerns of which are not paramount in relation to ensuring economic partnership with China. It is much more important for the stability of the West itself, which is very dependent on the level of consumption in the Middle Kingdom. Through the efforts of the last three decades, economically developed Europe and America managed to add one and a half billion Chinese people to the consumer society, and the West does not intend to give up such a source of profit and impetus for its own growth. By and large, the West, preoccupied with strengthening its own civilizational unity, does not care about the rights and freedoms of national minorities in China.

One should also not have any illusions about democratic changes in Beijing, which could give Russia some reprieve from possible expansive expectations. China's democratic forces are no less fragmented than Russia's. The opposition intelligentsia in the metropolis remains silent, fearing persecution, and the emigrant forces are dispersed among communities in different parts of the world. It is significant, by the way, that the student leaders of the Tiananmen events of 1989, who fled abroad to save their lives, are also not popular among the “dissenters” in China. During my trips to China, I heard from some Chinese who were very critical of the CCP that many of the protest leaders in 1989 were Uyghurs. For the Han Chinese, who are very nationalistic, this is definitely a minus. By the way, it is very similar to Russia, where the liberal opposition, for example, is unreasonably considered to consist entirely of Jews.

WHERE IS RUSSIA?

What about the Russian authoritarian government? What is it doing to prevent the loss of sovereignty over Siberia and the Far East?

Probably nothing. Considering that the economic interests discussed above (in connection with the latest agreements) are already fully consistent with the leadership of the CPC, the current government relies exclusively on the guarantees of its Chinese partners. We have repeatedly heard the following thesis - the Chinese comrades assured us of the absence of expansionist intentions towards Russia and their readiness to control the infiltration of Russian territories by Chinese migrants. Or - mutual recognition of territorial integrity is recorded in the relevant interstate documents. To put it bluntly, these are naive ideas about the forms of expansionism in the 21st century.

However, the presence of nuclear weapons is indeed a certain guarantee of security, but rather against military aggression. Why does this one seem significant among expansionist forms?

Can anyone imagine that persons from the highest power nobility would settle together with their untold fortunes in Shanghai or, at worst, in Shenyang? Hardly. More likely, after all, London, Geneva, Baden-Baden, etc. Capital - only through Cayman Islands or BVI trusts into reliable hedge funds or something similar. Cooperation with the PRC - yes, "cutting the dough" - please, but safety and further investment - only the West. Indeed, in the event of an unexpected escape from Russia, when crossing the border with China, responsible Asian comrades will quickly “lighten” the corruption bins of former friends and neighbors. The Asian perspective is for Russia, and for private interests it is a civilized Europe. Therefore, it is no coincidence that a good dozen European countries, through their current and past leaders, are drawn into dubious schemes for energy and other projects: from Schröder to Berlusconi.

For the current government in Russia, Asia is only a source of income and a tool for endless political maneuvers in order to achieve more favorable negotiating positions with the West. However, China is not like that. They think in terms of decades, or even centuries, because this is so traditional for the Chinese. Not like our “temporary workers”. The latter will definitely lose, and the payback will be the highest bet - 1/8 of Russian land.

From all that has been said above, we have to draw the most general conclusion about the inevitability of China’s expansion, the forms of which few today would dare to predict. The responsible part of society should, after reflection, look for ways out of the “Asian impasse” in civilizational self-determination in the West, hiding behind accelerated European integration from possible absorption. Otherwise, Russians may well face the fate of the same Tibetans - and not by the end of the 21st century, but much earlier than many in Russia imagine.

Photos by RIA Novosti