Will we change the smokers to the Crimea?

Having met the other day in Singapore, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe agreed to accelerate the negotiation process based on the 1956 joint Soviet-Japanese declaration, which involves the transfer of the Tokyo of the Shikotan Island and the ridges of the Khabomai of the Kuril ridge on certain conditions. Abe, apparently afraid to frighten off unexpected luck, evades comments. Putin turns to diplomatic casuistry. For example, it says that a serious study of points that were not recorded more than 60 years ago in a joint declaration is needed. It is not indicated, they say, the basis for the transfer of the islands, as well as under whose sovereignty the islands will remain. If you follow this logic, then Moscow can “transfer” the islands to Japanese use without the proclamation of Japanese sovereignty. The Secretary General of the Cabinet of Ministers of the country, Yoshihide Suga, immediately stated: "In the case of Japan transfer, the island of Shikotan, as well as Habomai, of course, we will confirm our sovereignty."

I must say that in sixty years of disputes regarding the belonging of four islands of the Malaya Kuril ridge (Shikotan, Iturup, Kunashir and Habomai), the arguments of the parties are polished to mirror smoothness. Tokyo states that the islands never belonged to Russia before the USSR captured them in 1945. Moscow is on the fact that it received islands according to the results of World War II, when the allies agreed that the Kuril Islands departed to the Soviet Union. To this, the Japanese object that the islands are not included in the Kurils. Hundreds of books and dissertations are written on this occasion. For decades, not only lawyers and historians, but geographers and hydrogeologists participated in disputes. Tokyo understands that the arguments of the Japanese side are not accurately, so they always evaded appeals, for example, to international arbitration. Obviously, this territorial dispute can be resolved only if there is a political decision of the Kremlin.

And Putin, apparently, intends to seduce Abe in every way with the prospect of what will show this will. Even having promised two islands (the wits already write that wealthy Russians will now try to register on Shikotan and Habomai), the Kremlin can stretch negotiations on this subject for many, long years. You can endlessly clarify how the “transmission” is connected with the implementation of sovereignty. It is possible to argue whether the transfer of islands is the end of the territorial dispute or Japan reserves the right to fight for the return of Iturup and Kunashir. Huge prospects for discussions are also the need to develop a peace treaty between the two countries, the articles of which can be clarified indefinitely.

Russia has already nominated preliminary conditions so that American troops were not deployed on the islands in the event of transfer. It is appropriate to recall that Moscow refused to fulfill the obligations of the 1956 joint declaration after the conclusion of the US-Japanese Security Treaty, which ensured the deployment in the country of the many thousands of the American contingent. And Sinzo Abe, according to Asahi’s newspaper, assured Putin that if the transfer of the southern smoking will take place, US military bases will not be located there. The Kremlin is clearly not limited to verbal promises, it will demand to fix them legally. What is fraught with a crisis in Japanese-American relations. At the same time, we note that it is the Japanese who count on American protection in the confrontation between the territorial claims of another powerful neighbor - China.

In a word, even if you specifically look for a question, an attempt to resolve which will surely create strategic uncertainty for a long time, it is better not to find a Russian-Japanese territorial conflict. That is why Vladimir Putin, clearly claiming the historical role of the “Russian land collector”, decided, at least, to promise the transfer of the islands, which were recently called the “original Russian territories”.

It is obvious that, playing the Japanese gambit, the Kremlin is ready to sacrifice the islands in order to acquire a new quality: to break through the isolation that has taken shape around Russia due to the accession of Crimea and the untying of a secret war in the Donbass. Even better, if at the same time it is possible to sow the conflict between Japan and the USA. In a word, Russian foreign policy has a new goal - to change the chicken to the Crimea ...



Photo: 1. 07/07/2018. Russia. Sakhalin region. The coast of the Pacific Ocean in the Bay of the Tunker on the island of Iturup. Iturup is an island of the southern group of a large ridge of the Kuril Islands, the belonging of which is disputed by Japan, considering its territory as part of the Nemuro Prefecture Hokkaido. Sergey Krasnoukhov/TASS
2. 11/14/2018. Singapore. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Russian President Vladimir Putin (from left to right) during the meeting. Mikhail Metzel/TASS
3. 1. 07.11.2018. Russia. Sakhalin region. Abandoned houses in the village of Gorny on the island of Iturup. Iturup is an island of the southern group of a large ridge of the Kuril Islands, the belonging of which is disputed by Japan, considering its territory as part of the Nemuro Prefecture Hokkaido. Sergey Krasnoukhov/TASS